The Round of 12 has arrived after a chaotic and completely unpredictable end to the Round of 16 that saw four drivers eliminated, one of whom was in a three-way tie for the last two spots and lost on a tie breaker. Dover is known as the Monster Mile simply because of how tough the track is to tame lap after lap after lap and the sheer craziness that can erupt during the race. Talladega, next week’s race, is know for the “Big One” but that same thing can happen here, and has before, especially on restarts as everyone is vying for the best position possible.
Even though there are three races in this stage and this is just the first one, the odds of making it to the Round of 8 decline sharply if you aren’t in the top-eight following the Dover race. That’s not the only pressure on the teams, as the track changes drastically throughout the weekend including throughout the race. The track in the Friday morning practice was rubber-free and had a ton of grip and speed however as the temps get warmer throughout the weekend and the race the track accepts more rubber and widens out but also gets slicker. The trick to staying out front is not only having a fast car but also being able to make the proper adjustments to the car throughout the race and staying ahead of the track so to speak.
Passing here can be fairly tricky to do and make it stick as proven by the just five drivers in the field this week with a +6 position differential mark in the last five races. In general 13 winners have come from the pole position, most recently in 2009 and 2010, and 18 winners have come from the second spot, the most of any position. Total that makes 31.9% of total winners coming from the first two starting spots out of the 97 races run here in history. Six of the last 10 winners here have come from the top-10 starting spots, including three of the last four with all three of those starting P2 in the grid. Four of the last six races had two drivers lead 100 laps or more. One race had two do that and one lead 90, and the other two races saw only one driver lead more than 100 laps including one with Kevin Harvick leading 355 of the 400 laps. So traditionally the race has been won by those who start near the front, though there is a shot from even the 15th starting spot of late and there are usually only one or two dominators at this track.
The 400 lap race is divvied up into two 120-lap stages and then a final 160 lap stage. On DraftKings there are a possible 300 total bonus points available whereas on FanDuel there are a maximum of 240 points if every driver on your lineup completes every lap and you account for all of the laps led. So expect scores to be higher this week than last.
Playbook
Kevin Harvick
DK: $12,100 FD: $14,500
Harvick is the most-expensive driver on both sites this week, yet again but he is the defending winner here at Dover back in May. He has also posted two top-10s and 318 laps led in the last five races. However when you look over the last 10 races at Dover, he’s got five top-10s and 1,011 laps led with two wins. Starting from the pole because of cancelled qualifying gives him a definite advantage and several cars during practice stated that if you watched the lap tracker that the 4-car was the fastest one lap-after-lap not to mention his lap average and 10-lap average in the final practice were P1 and P4 respectively. I like his price better on DK than FD but he’s playable in both formats on both sites.
Kyle Busch
DK: $11,800 FD: $14,000
In the Spring race here I told you not to play Busch, and in fact may not have written him up in the playbook at all. Now that it’s the Fall race it’s a different story. Busch has a win, four top-fives, and five top-10s in the last five Fall races here including a win in this event last year. Whether it be the pressure of the playoffs or simply a second try at the track for the year, not sure why he has that difference in finish from one race to the next, but it’s clearly a trend. This week he has shown solid speed, but not elite and he will start P2 based on owner points. He should be in consideration for cash and GPP lineups on both sites.
Martin Truex Jr.
DK: $11.500 FD: $13,500
Dover has become a playground for MTJ the last few trips with a win, four top-fives, and five top-10s in the last five races and the best average finish in the field at 4.2. His average driver rating of a 124.3 is nearly a full 20 ratings points higher than the next closest few drivers which is an impressive separation. In the last 10 races there are eight top-10s to his name and 518 laps led, third in the field in that span. His average finish of 6.6 is three spots better than the next closest as well. So clearly he’s been the best car on the track most of that time, but this week he hasn’t fully showed the speed I’d have liked to see in practice. They do know what the race pace will be like and the way they’ve been running the last several races, there’s no reason to doubt them here.
Brad Keselowski
DK: $10,700 FD: $13,000
Keselowski has been far better at this track than his two teammates have and to that point he has a top-five and four top-10s in the last five races here with a healthy 203 laps led in that span. His six top-10s in the last 10 races here are pretty high on the list too. Due to the three-straight wins a few weeks ago, he’s fourth on the starting grid and ran the sixth best 10-lap average and fifth best overall lap average at final practice which is building confidence that he can stay near or at where he will start. Not sure he’s got enough to win or lead a lot of laps but a top-5-8 finish is in his grasp.
Kyle Larson
DK: $10,200 FD: $12,600
I will start this off by saying he is my favorite play of the week this week. Before I even give his stats or whatever, he is my favorite. Larson has three top-fives and four top-10s in the last five races with the exact same average start and average finish mark at 8.8 and he has the most laps led with 463 in that span. In nine career races here, he has four top-fives and seven top-10s. In practice this week he lit the track on fire and was clearly the fastest car in single lap runs on Friday and Saturday by nearly 2-full mph in each practice. He also had the best five-lap, 10-lap, and 15-lap average in the final practice along with running the P4 lap average in that session despite running a whopping 87 laps. His price tag is great on both sites and he will start P10 giving him immediate PD upside.
Chase Elliott
DK: $9,900 FD: $11,400
Elliott may only have five races at Dover in the Cup series under his fire suit but four of them have seen him finish in the top five with the other, this May, finishing P12. That’s a hard record to beat for a young driver. Now this week he has shown good speed as well with running P5 in single-lap speed and P9 in 10-lap average in the final session. He will start the race ninth with a good chance of moving up in the field and finishing in the top-five again. Oh yeah, he’s also led 138 laps in his brief time at the track. The price of less than 10K and 12K on each site respectively is nice and not prohibitive for either lineup format.
Denny Hamlin
DK: $9,600 FD: $10,200
Hamlin was eliminated in the Round of 16 for the first time in his career last week, but now that some of the pressure is off, he can let it ride so to speak. He has four top-10s in the last five races and five in the last 10 with 133 laps led in that span as well. He rolls off the line in 15th, as that where Hamlin stands in the points but given that he ran significantly faster than that in the single-lap and 10-lap averages in the final session, and his history, Hamlin has intriguing PD upside. His price is very nice on both sites but as an average price guy on FD it’s even better.
Clint Bowyer
DK: $9,300 FD: $12,200
As stated in the practice notes, he has been talking all week about how he believes this is his best chance to win in the Round of 12 and punch is ticket to the penultimate round, which is interesting since his home track is just two races way. Bowyer has been solid here of late with a top-five, two top-10s, and a healthy PD of +7.6 in the last five trips to Delaware. His average start of 22.6 will be a lot better this time as he starts P5 based off points, but even with that spot he’s run faster than that in the long-run speed. The Happy Hour session saw him run P2 in both 10-lap average and overall lap average across his 61 laps run. The upper-mid-tier price on DK is nice to work him into either lineup.
Kurt Busch
DK: $9,100 FD: $11,700
Busch was a last minute add to the playbook when his speed in the final practice showed through. He ran P3 and P6 in the single-lap speeds between Friday’s and Saturday’s two sessions but ran P6 in overall lap average over 67 laps and P8 in 10-lap average. As noted in the practice notes for the final practice, Busch has just two top-10s in the last 13 races he’s run here but he did have a P5 back in May. He needs to make headway on his point deficit this week before the craziness of ‘Dega breaks out next week. I would suggest that he’s the first true GPP play this week but still a solid one.
Erik Jones
DK: $8,700 FD: $9,400
Jones has just two top-15s in the three races he’s run here in the Cup series but the speed he’s shown this week might just change that stat. Jones finished the last round in 16th in the standings and thus starts there this week. He’s run P3 and P8 in the single-lap speeds and P7 and P8 in the long-run speed measures of 10-lap average and overall lap average. He has had speed throughout the season, just not the consistency to move on in the playoffs, however if he has speed this week, that’s all we need. A GPP play is better for Jones.
Aric Almirola
DK: $8,300 FD: $9,800
Almirola doesn’t have the best overall stats at Dover with just one top-15 in the last four races and two top-fives and 10s in his last nine trips to the Monster Mile. In practice though that hasn’t stopped him from showing good speed in single-lap and long-run speed. He piloted the 10-car to a P4 in single lap and P3 in overall lap average in the final session after getting locked in to the P11 starting spot for the race. I think he finishes a few spots ahead of his starting spot but not much more than that for Almirola.
Jimmie Johnson
DK: $8,200 FD: $10,400
JJ showed signs of life last week as he went for the win and came up short after spinning MTJ out in the last turn. It was a sign NASCAR and his fans alike have been waiting for since he won last May. Where did that last win come? Right here. It was his 11th win all-time at Dover, the most all-time at the track and in the last 10 races here he has four wins, six top-fives, and eight top-10s and 644 laps led. At practice he ran the ninth-fastest average laps and 10th best 10-lap average while starting P13 for the race. Johnson might just have the mojo working again an is a sneaky play once more this week like he was last week.
Daniel Suarez
DK: $8,000 FD: $8,900
Suarez has been on the hotseat at JGR this season but at Dover he could shine with a top-five and three top-10s under his belt in the three races he’s run here in the Cup series. He will start P19 on Sunday and ran P10 and P24 in single-lap speeds between Friday and Saturday’s session but did run a P12 10-lap average. Suarez hasn’t got anything to fight for except showing that he still belongs in the Cup series full-time and that can be a powerful motivator when going to a track you’ve had success at in the past.
Jamie McMurray
DK: $7,500 FD: $8,200
Jamie Mac has been a sneaky play the last few weeks with a top-five and three top-10s in the last five races this season including a P2 last week. At Dover he has two top-10s in the last five races and four in the last 10 trips. The 1-car showed top-15 single-lap speed but didn’t do better than P22 in 10-lap average which is about where he starts for the race at P20. The mid-tier price on both sites is a good spot to take a chance on him in GPP contests this week.
Matt Kenseth
DK: $7,100 FD: $7,400
Kenseth is back in the 6-car this week after Bayne drove the Roval last week. This might be the last best chance for a good finish for Kenseth this year given his history at Dover. In the last five he has a win, two top-fives, and two top-10s with 48 laps led in that span. Clearly it was with better equipment than he’s got around him now, but it’s still shows his abilities. This week he’s run P22 and P18 in single-lap speeds with P25 10-lap average while starting P28 in the grid. The cheap upside here is nice for either lineup format.
William Byron
DK: $6,700 FD: $7,200
Byron has run here once in the Cup series and locked in a P14 finish in May. In the Xfinity series he’s run twice and has a top-five and two top-10s with 62 laps led. So it’s clear he knows how to work his way around the circuit. He will start P22 on Sunday and he ran better than that in single-lap and long-run speeds at the two practices. The price is better on DK than FD but he’s still not a bad play on either for a cheaper PD upside play.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
DK: $6,000 FD: $7,000
It’s not often that Stenhouse makes the playbook outside of a select few races but this is one of those races. Three top-15s and four top-20s in the last five tries is what he brings to the table which isn’t spectacular but at this price point it carries more weight. He starts P21 on Sunday but ran way faster than that in long-run speeds with a P3 10-lap average and a P10 in overall lap average through 59 laps run. The 17-car stands a good chance of moving into the top-15 by race’s end and perhaps up to P10-12 which means a big PD boost to the lineup.
Ty Dillon
DK: $5,700 FD: $5,000
Ty has become one of the more common cheap plays to make the playbook, but it’s worked out well to this point. Dillon has a top-15 here and an average finish of P23. Both good marks for such a budget-friendly play. He hasn’t run the fastest laps here this week, but the average finish is promising and you will need a cheap play when the top-priced guys are all starting up front.