It’s time for the playoffs!

Sixteen drivers all vying for the championship at the end of the final 10 races of the year being whittled down by groups of four after each third race. This year the playoffs have a bit of a different flavor to them as it starts with three completely different tracks than what the drivers are used to seeing in this round, but change isn’t always a bad thing right? Especially when it starts with the excitement that Las Vegas as a city and Las Vegas Motor Speedway bring to bare.

While they have raced at Vegas before, earlier this season, this race is a brand new one on the schedule as Vegas has previously hosted just one race a year since the first race was run in March of 1998. The track is the same configuration as it was in March and the banking is the same as it was in March but this has the ability to be a completely different track than it was in March simply because of the weather this weekend, and time of year, as compared to March. The first practice notes gave you an idea of the difference as the opening practice earlier in the year at the Pennzoil 400 was had the temp at 63 degrees while the opening practice this time around, at roughly the same time of day, was 90 degrees outside. That makes a huge difference in grip level and the way the cars drive on the track and which grooves are best or even available to be used.

Normally this track is one that can be hard to pass on much like Kansas and Michigan and despite the surface being quite rough and bumpy as evidenced by the helmet cams during the practice broadcasts, the tire wear isn’t a big issue and so speeds don’t really fall off very much over the course of long runs. Long runs are quite a common thing here given that the last six races here have had six cautions or less in each one with no more than 36 laps run under yellow. A total of 1,602 laps have been run in the last six races combined and there have been a total of 170 caution laps, or just over 10% run under yellow. Long runs are important. However those numbers were all in March races and not in September races. The last time a race was run here when it was this hot was the 2011 Camping World Truck race which was fairly crash filled.

This is a track that favors starting in the top-10 as of late with eight of the last 11 winners coming from P7 or better and four of them coming specifically from P2. The first 10 races here saw the opposite trend as just three of the first 10 winners started inside the top-10 starting spots. The same kind of trend holds true when talking about laps led in the last four races where 86.7% of the laps have been led by just five drivers and those same drivers have also recorded 53.3% of the fastest laps in that same span.

All of this being said, it is still a good strategy to play guys that have a shot at moving up through the field as with multiple grooves that should come in will allow for a lot of passing opportunities throughout the race. Also there are several playoff drivers starting slightly further back in the pack than where you might figure they would and the pressure to have high finishes and win to advance will play a role in strategy calls as well.

Playbook

Kyle Busch

DK: $12,300  FD: $13,800

The home track for Kyle and Kurt haven’t been that kind to them overall or of late. Kyle has two top-fives in the last three races there and 48 laps led while in his last nine races here he has a win, four top-fives, four top-10s and 179 laps led. This week specifically he has run decently quick with regard to short and long run speed before qualifying P4 for Sunday’s race. While he has been very good this season I just don’t see the top-end speed it will take for him to get a win here this week. Still a worthwhile play in lineups though.

Kevin Harvick

DK: $11,700  FD: $14,200

Harvick completely dominated this race in the spring, before his win was ruled encumbered because of a rear window support. In the last four races total he has two wins, two top-fives, three top-10s and 357 laps led with 166 fastest laps. Over the last 10 trips to Sin City he has one additional top-five and two more top-10s and another 38 laps led and nearly 80 more fastest laps. The 4-car hasn’t shown convincing short run speed this week but when you factor in his lap averages across all of the practices he is in the top-five most of the time. Harvick will start P5 on Sunday and has the long-run speed and history here to wind up atop the podium at the end of the day if things break his way.

Kyle Larson

DK: $10,700  FD: $12,400

Larson has two top-fives and three top-10s in the past four races at Vegas but doesn’t have any laps led. The 42-team made the playoffs despite not having a win under their belt this year but that hasn’t stopped them from showing up with impressive speed this weekend. The short run speed is just a touch better than where he qualified (11th) but the long-run speed was at times top-five for 10-lap average. He runs the high side here possibly better than anyone else but with him not really working any other line it’s hard to tell how fast his car will be if he gets stuck on the bottom groove. He’s a low-tier cash play but a better fit for GPP lineups.

Martin Truex Jr.

DK: $9,900  FD: $13,000

Over the last four races here, Truex has the best average finish in the field at 4.3 including a win and three top-fives with 159 laps led and 94 fastest laps. His 10 race history here is just as strong as his four race history which isn’t shocking given that Truex Jr. has won six of the last 13 races at this distance over the last year and change. The 78-car has shown arguably the best long-run speed this week being inside the top-four in every category at basically all points of practice. He will start P10 which gives him great upside for both a high finish and position differential. He’s a great cash or GPP game play.

Brad Keselowski

DK: $9,600  FD: $12,600

There is no driver that is hotter than Keselowski at this point in the season. He’s won the last two races, two crown jewels at that. Now comes Vegas which is a track that he and his teammates have done very well at in the last several races. Keselowski has a win, two top-fives, four top-10s, and six top-sevens in the last six races. He also has 122 laps led and 119 fastest laps and third highest average rating at 114. He starts P13 on Sunday but ran the ninth-fastest and seventh-fastest 10-lap averages. With the momentum they have right now and a good history here, don’t be shocked to see Keselowski in contention late on Sunday and posting a good points day for your lineups.

Ryan Blaney

DK: $9,200  FD: $11,000

As mentioned in the practice notes, this is Blaney best track by average finish and consecutive top-10s, at three. He also has a top-five here in the last four in addition to the top-10s. He also started P8 and finished fourth in the only Xfinity race he’s run here while leading 33 laps. Aside from his history and being a teammate to two guys, and on a team, that run very well here every time at the track, he has the speed this week in his car to compete. Blaney will start P6 but ran P2 in each of the Saturday race practices in single-lap speed and then ran no worse than sixth in the long-run speed categories. His mid-tier price tag make him attractive for either lineup format.

Clint Bowyer

DK: $9,000  FD: $10,600

Just one top-10 and two top-20s is what Bowyer has posted in the last four races here but he has a top-five, four top-10s, and five top-15s in the last 10 races at Vegas. He has two wins this year with the last one coming at Michigan but since then he has been getting on a bit of a role recently. He qualified 15th this week but ran faster than that at practice including the best 10-lap average in the second practice and the third best lap average overall across all laps run in the Happy Hour practice. Even if he doesn’t win, he’s go the speed to move up and stay in the top-five for most of the race.

Joey Logano

DK: $8,800  FD: $12,000

Logano being a Penske driver pretty well describes his history here but just for clarification he has two top-fives, four top-10s, 149 laps led, and 83 fastest laps in the last four races but has three top-fives and six top-10s in the last 10 races with eight top-15s. His consistency here is very hard to beat since all of those numbers are among the best in the field this week. Logano qualified P2, which is the same spot the last two winners have started from and three out of the last five, however his short and long run speeds were between 10th-15th fastest most of the weekend except when he ran the second best lap average in the second practice. That makes him a GPP play for a best fit.

Erik Jones

DK: $8,700  FD: $10,400

Jones has raced here twice in the Cup series and once in the Xfinity series and has a combined one top-five, two top-10s, and three top-15s in that span. There aren’t any laps led but that should change this Sunday as he starts on the pole and with arguably the fastest car on the track in practice under him. His long run speed and short run speed were both very good in both race trim practices on Saturday. Being a pole sitter makes him a better GPP play than cash simply due to the lack of position upside he has, but his price will make him highly owned across the slate.

Jimmie Johnson

DK: $8,300  FD: $9,200

It’s unusual to see Johnson come in as an underdog to the playoffs, after all he is a seven-time champion. His history here is hard to ignore with four wins, the most of anyone at the track, though the last one came 10 years ago already. He has the second most laps led in the last 10 races and still has 140 laps led here in the last four races. However he is still lacking the overall speed needed to fully compete despite showing glimpses this weekend. JJ will roll off in 17th on Sunday but he’s really only a GPP play for some PD upside and his price is still a bit higher than I’d like to see it, though it is workable on both sites.

Aric Almirola

DK: $8,100  FD: $10,000

Almirola is the only member of the SHR team that doesn’t have a win this year but that didn’t keep him from making the playoffs anyway. At Vegas he has a top-10 and two top-15s in the last four races here. The driver of the 10-car qualified P16 for Sunday’s race but ran P3 and P12 in the two race trim practices, and blamed the 12th place on lap traffic, while also posting some of the best lap averages and 10-lap averages in both sessions. With an ability to move up through the field all season and a mid-tier price he is a great target for either lineup format this weekend.

Daniel Suarez

DK: $8,000  FD: $8,300

Suarez did not in fact live up to his guarantee of making the playoffs despite a valiant effort later in the season. Now there are rumors swirling about his seat in the 19-car and if it won’t be his much longer. That hasn’t seemed to effect him producing speed on the track this weekend though. Suarez locked in the 19th starting spot for the race but ran the 5th and 7th fastest single lap times in the Saturday practices and ran the 10th best 10=lap average in the Happy Hour session. His two Cup races haven’t gone well for him with just one top-20 finish but his Xfinty experience here shows two top-five finishes in two races. Suarez has the motivation to show what he can do as he’s essentially driving for his job and that could help his value.     

Jamie McMurray

DK: $7,900  FD: $8,600

Jamie Mac has a top-10 and two top-20s in his past four tries at the Vegas track which isn’t anything to right home about but he also does have three top-10s and six top-15s in the last 10. His speed this week has been around his qualifying spot of 12th and with him racing for his next ride, since it’s been announced he won’t return to the 1-car for Chip Ganassi, there is some nice point potential from him sticking around that spot.

Ryan Newman

DK: $7,600  FD: $9,000

Newman, in the last four races, has a top-five, a top-10, and three top-15s with a stellar +6.5 PD. He also has three top-fives and four top-10s in the last 10 trips to Vegas which is a nice total for a guy that’s been pretty well under the radar for much of that time. At a mid-tier price on both sites he’s appealing just for his history but then add in that he’s starting P22 but ran single lap speeds of P1 and P5 on Saturday and ran top-15 10-lap average as well and he gets even more appealing for either format.

Trevor Bayne

DK: $6,400  FD: $6,700

Bayne is back in the 6-car this week for a track that he’s done reasonably well at in recent history with a top-15 and three top-20s in the last four. He’s also posted a +7.3 PD in that span as well. It’s been announced that Bayne won’t be back with Roush Fenway next year and is essentially auditioning for other rides with his performances at this point. Bayne will start P23 and ran the fifth fastest lap average in the Happy Hour session (though only over 16 laps). He works as a budget friendly option for either lineup on both sites.

AJ Allmendinger

DK: $6,200  FD: $6,400

Allmendinger has a top-10 and two top-15s in the last four races at LVMS and has shown similar type speed at practice over the short run with a P10 finish in the second practice session Saturday morning. He will roll off the grid in the 29th spot but has a pretty good shot at moving up near the top-20 which isn’t bad for this price tag on either site.

Regan Smith

DK: $5,500  FD: $6,000

Smith is on the this list because he’s filling in for Kasey Kahne and he has a remarkable PD mark in the last two races here at +13 with a top-20. Smith qualified P25 for the race but ran P8 in the second practice in single lap speed. If that speed transfers to the race he could have a shot at finishing about 15th if his PD ability holds true. He’s worth a shot at this cheap price in either lineup.