**UPDATE: Kasey Kahne (#95 car) will not race on Sunday due to complications from Heat Exhuastion and Regan Smith will instead drive the #95 car. He has not yet been added to the salary list on either site. I have updated the drivers to watch section to cover someone other than Kahne. You can simply ignore his data in the Track Data section.**

Aside from Daytona, this might just be the most historic race track the NASCAR schedule visits during the season. The “Brickyard” is a rectangular oval that is 2.5 miles in length for one lap and has four separate turns that are banked at a 9.2 degree angle with completely flat straightaways. The history is well established but this is the first time in a while that this race is happening this late in the year, since typically it happens in July and not as the last regular season race.

While it is typically considered a fairly hard track to pass on with 15 of the 24 total winners at the track coming from the top-10 starting spots, the last few years have had a myriad of cautions that have really blown up the position differential stats in that time. There have been 9, 8, and 14 cautions each of the last three races from earliest to last year, which for a race that is 160 laps long, that’s quite a few. With a bunch of guys still needing a win to sneak into the playoffs, that number could stay right around there this year since guys will be more likely to try and pull off risky moves.

With the track being so long in length, it also reduces the amount of laps led one guy tends to have, unless that guy is Kyle Busch who has straight dominated this track the last several races as he has three times more laps led than the next closest driver. A reduction in bonus points for laps led and fastest laps ( 120 total points available on DK and 96 between laps led and laps completed on FD), the key to a high scoring lineup is the guys that move up through the field. The similar track(s) this week is Pocono Raceway since it has similarly banked turns and is the same distance as Indy.

Track Data

Last Four Races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway

    Avg. Avg. Avg.   Top Top Top Top Laps
Driver Races Start Run Pos. Finish Wins 5s 10s 15s 20s Led
Kyle Busch 4 5.8 6.5 9.5 2 3 3 3 3 255
Kasey Kahne 4 20.5 13.3 12.3 1 1 2 2 3 82
Joey Logano 4 8 8 4.5 0 3 4 4 4 44
Matt Kenseth 4 17 9 4.5 0 3 4 4 4 21
Denny Hamlin 4 13.3 10.5 7.3 0 3 3 3 4 18
Kevin Harvick 4 4 6 5.8 0 1 4 4 4 87
Kyle Larson 4 13.8 10 12.3 0 1 3 3 3 5
Brad Keselowski 4 12.5 12 10.3 0 1 2 3 4 55
Martin Truex Jr 4 13 11.8 17.5 0 1 2 2 2 8
Ryan Newman 4 15.3 15.8 14 0 1 1 3 3 0
Jimmie Johnson 4 10 12.3 14.8 0 1 1 3 3 0
Austin Dillon 4 18.5 17.8 16.3 0 0 2 2 2 1
Paul Menard 4 20 21.8 18.5 0 0 1 2 3 0
Chris Buescher 2 24 23 11.5 0 0 1 2 2 0
Clint Bowyer 4 18 16.3 18.3 0 0 1 1 2 3
Kurt Busch 4 11 16.3 20.3 0 0 1 1 2 0
AJ Allmendinger 4 31.5 27.3 22.3 0 0 1 1 2 0
Daniel Suarez 1 15 16 7 0 0 1 1 1 0
Matt DiBenedetto 3 32.3 33 26.7 0 0 1 1 1 0
Jamie McMurray 4 11.5 14.5 17.5 0 0 0 1 4 0
Chase Elliott 3 19.7 24.3 24 0 0 0 1 2 0
Ryan Blaney 3 19 15.3 23.7 0 0 0 1 1 6
Aric Almirola 4 30.3 24.5 24.3 0 0 0 1 1 0
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 4 21.8 22.8 26.5 0 0 0 1 1 0
Timmy Hill 2 39.5 37.5 27.5 0 0 0 1 1 0
Ty Dillon 1 28 21 19 0 0 0 0 1 0
Michael McDowell 4 27.8 27.3 24.5 0 0 0 0 1 0
Landon Cassill 4 31.3 27.8 24.5 0 0 0 0 1 0
Erik Jones 1 9 15 31 0 0 0 0 0 10
David Ragan 4 24.8 28.3 32.8 0 0 0 0 0 5
Gray Gaulding 1 35 30 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jeffrey Earnhardt 1 36 32 26 0 0 0 0 0 0
BJ McLeod 1 40 36 32 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reed Sorenson 2 40.5 38 35.5 0 0 0 0 0 0
JJ Yeley 2 35.5 37 38 0 0 0 0 0 0
Corey LaJoie 1 32 39 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
Alex Bowman 2 35 38 41.5 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bubba Wallace 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
David Starr 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ross Chastain 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
William Byron 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 

  Fast Top 15 Laps Avg. High Low Pos Laps Led High to Low to
Driver Laps Rate Comp. Rating Rating Rating Diff Pts./Race Avg Rating Avg Rating
Kyle Busch 140 87% 604 130.3 150 116.8 -3.70 15.94 19.7 13.5
Kasey Kahne 27 52% 661 91.6 132.7 69.3 8.20 5.13 41.1 22.3
Joey Logano 15 90% 661 106.7 117.9 99.5 3.50 2.75 11.2 7.2
Matt Kenseth 30 88% 661 107.8 114 100.6 12.50 1.31 6.2 7.2
Denny Hamlin 18 79% 660 97.9 109.4 81.3 6.00 1.13 11.5 16.6
Kevin Harvick 44 94% 661 115.5 135.5 102.7 -1.80 5.44 20 12.8
Kyle Larson 6 88% 648 96.8 107.3 72.8 1.50 0.31 10.5 24
Brad Keselowski 15 70% 661 94.7 102.8 85.3 2.20 3.44 8.1 9.4
Martin Truex Jr 33 69% 604 96.9 114.5 66.7 -4.50 0.50 17.6 30.2
Ryan Newman 2 55% 657 79.3 88.9 70 1.30 0.00 9.6 9.3
Jimmie Johnson 9 69% 652 89.6 97.1 78.2 -4.80 0.00 7.5 11.4
Austin Dillon 8 46% 656 74.9 89.7 60 2.20 0.06 14.8 14.9
Paul Menard 0 26% 659 67.5 79.5 47 1.50 0.00 12 20.5
Chris Buescher 1 5% 337 70 73.3 66.6 12.50 0.00 3.3 3.4
Clint Bowyer 2 52% 641 79.6 88.5 54.3 -0.30 0.19 8.9 25.3
Kurt Busch 5 62% 642 81.1 91.7 69.7 -9.30 0.00 10.6 11.4
AJ Allmendinger 1 4% 562 56 64 43.2 9.20 0.00 8 12.8
Daniel Suarez 1 56% 167 81 81 81 8.00 0.00 0 0
Matt DiBenedetto 0 5% 333 39.7 61.8 23.2 5.60 0.00 22.1 16.5
Jamie McMurray 3 58% 661 80.1 97.5 73.3 -6.00 0.00 17.4 6.8
Chase Elliott 8 21% 377 59.3 73.8 38 -4.30 0.00 14.5 21.3
Ryan Blaney 7 49% 478 76.8 92.6 63.5 -4.70 0.50 15.8 13.3
Aric Almirola 2 12% 656 59.8 67.7 46.8 6.00 0.00 7.9 13
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 1 17% 597 61.7 69.7 53.5 -4.70 0.00 8 8.2
Timmy Hill 0 1% 278 36 47.2 24.7 12.00 0.00 11.2 11.3
Ty Dillon 0 21% 165 59.5 59.5 59.5 9.00 0.00 0 0
Michael McDowell 0 7% 656 52.8 63.8 43.7 3.30 0.00 11 9.1
Landon Cassill 0 6% 653 48.8 57.2 41.1 6.80 0.00 8.4 7.7
Erik Jones 1 57% 148 79 79 79 -22.00 2.50 0 0
David Ragan 6 16% 495 48.1 86 32.5 -8.00 0.31 37.9 15.6
Gray Gaulding 0 0% 162 41.8 41.8 41.8 11.00 0.00 0 0
Jeffrey Earnhardt 0 0% 162 38.5 38.5 38.5 10.00 0.00 0 0
BJ McLeod 0 0% 135 31 31 31 8.00 0.00 0 0
Reed Sorenson 0 0% 321 30.6 31.3 29.9 5.00 0.00 0.7 0.7
JJ Yeley 0 0% 230 30.2 32.5 27.8 -2.50 0.00 2.3 2.4
Corey LaJoie 0 0% 9 24.8 24.8 24.8 -8.00 0.00 0 0
Alex Bowman 0 0% 234 27.3 29.7 24.8 -6.50 0.00    
Bubba Wallace 0 0% 0 0 0 0 0.00   0 0
David Starr 0 0% 0 0 0 0 0.00   0 0
Ross Chastain 0 0% 0 0 0 0 0.00   0 0
William Byron 0 0% 0 0 0 0 0.00   0 0

 

Top-15 Drivers Over Last 10 Races at Indianapolis

    Avg. Avg. Avg.   Top Top Top Top Laps
Driver Races Start Run Pos. Finish Wins 5s 10s 15s 20s Led
Jimmie Johnson 10 7 8.5 10.5 3 5 5 7 8 269
Kyle Busch 10 14 10.5 12.1 2 4 7 8 8 272
Kasey Kahne 10 14.2 12.1 10.9 1 2 5 7 9 130
Ryan Newman 10 12.1 15.6 12 1 2 3 8 9 45
Jamie McMurray 10 13.2 15.1 13.9 1 2 3 5 8 26
Paul Menard 10 21.7 21.9 18.5 1 1 2 6 7 22
Matt Kenseth 10 14.8 12.1 12.3 0 5 7 8 8 32
Denny Hamlin 10 12.7 14.6 13.2 0 4 5 6 8 75
Joey Logano 9 13.1 12.8 11.7 0 3 6 7 7 55
Kevin Harvick 10 13.2 12.9 11.1 0 2 6 8 9 94
Brad Keselowski 8 12.5 13.8 12.4 0 1 4 5 7 99
Martin Truex Jr 10 18.7 14.5 18 0 1 3 4 5 11
Kyle Larson 4 13.8 10 12.3 0 1 3 3 3 5
Clint Bowyer 10 20.4 15.7 16.2 0 1 2 4 8 6
Kurt Busch 10 12.8 19.2 22.9 0 0 2 3 4 0

 

  Fast Top 15 Laps Avg. High Low Pos. Laps Led Rating
Driver Laps Rate Comp. Rating Rating Rating Diff. Pts/Race Range
Jimmie Johnson 162 80% 1612 109.8 150 75.9 -3.50 6.73 74.1
Kyle Busch 176 79% 1516 109.5 150 68.5 1.90 6.80 81.5
Kasey Kahne 76 68% 1621 96.1 132.7 69.3 3.30 3.25 63.4
Ryan Newman 29 52% 1617 85 134.2 62.2 0.10 1.13 72
Jamie McMurray 16 53% 1621 82.8 127.6 57 -0.70 0.65 70.6
Paul Menard 2 32% 1575 68.9 104 24.8 3.20 0.55 79.2
Matt Kenseth 39 79% 1577 97.5 119.1 68.7 2.50 0.80 50.4
Denny Hamlin 49 62% 1604 91.4 119.5 69.6 -0.50 1.88 49.9
Joey Logano 22 64% 1445 91.2 117.9 61.5 1.40 1.53 56.4
Kevin Harvick 50 67% 1609 94.8 135.5 39.3 2.10 2.35 96.2
Brad Keselowski 44 59% 1301 89.3 102.8 64 0.10 3.09 38.8
Martin Truex Jr 36 55% 1563 85.3 114.5 61.7 0.70 0.28 52.8
Kyle Larson 6 88% 648 96.8 107.3 72.8 1.50 0.31 34.5
Clint Bowyer 11 51% 1601 81.4 114.5 54.3 4.20 0.15 60.2
Kurt Busch 11 53% 1526 75.6 96.5 42.7 -10.10 0.00 53.8

 

Top-15 Drivers Over Last 20 Races at Similar Tracks

    Avg. Avg. Avg.   Top Top Top Top Laps
Driver Races Start Run Pos. Finish Wins 5s 10s 15s 20s Led
Kyle Busch 20 11.4 10.6 13 4 7 13 15 15 534
Jimmie Johnson 20 12 12.4 15.3 3 6 9 11 14 276
Martin Truex Jr 20 13.7 14 16.2 2 4 8 10 13 197
Matt Kenseth 20 14.3 13.9 13.4 1 6 12 14 16 77
Kurt Busch 20 10.1 15.9 17.2 1 4 8 11 13 91
Kasey Kahne 20 17.2 15.4 17.5 1 2 7 12 14 132
Ryan Newman 20 12.9 15.8 14.1 1 2 6 15 16 46
Jamie McMurray 20 12.7 15.2 15.7 1 2 6 10 16 27
Ryan Blaney 9 14.7 14.4 15.7 1 1 3 6 6 27
Paul Menard 20 21.1 22.7 21.3 1 1 2 8 11 22
Chris Buescher 8 22.5 24.6 18.8 1 1 2 3 5 12
Kevin Harvick 20 11 11.6 9.8 0 9 14 17 18 276
Brad Keselowski 18 9.3 12.3 11.2 0 8 11 12 15 233
Denny Hamlin 20 10.4 12.3 13 0 6 11 14 16 105
Joey Logano 19 11 13.2 15.7 0 6 10 11 12 237

 

  Fast Top 15 Laps Avg. High Low Pos Laps Led Rating
Driver Laps Rate Comp. Rating Rating Rating Diff. Pts./Race Range
Kyle Busch 340 79% 2950 106.4 150 43 -1.60 6.68 107
Jimmie Johnson 179 69% 2942 97.1 150 45.3 -3.30 3.45 104.7
Martin Truex Jr 186 59% 3073 90.9 147 61.3 -2.50 2.46 85.7
Matt Kenseth 74 67% 3115 90.9 123.6 52.6 0.90 0.96 71
Kurt Busch 85 62% 3098 87.6 128.6 42.7 -7.10 1.14 85.9
Kasey Kahne 97 60% 2966 83.9 132.7 23.7 -0.30 1.65 109
Ryan Newman 31 52% 3179 81.2 134.2 62.2 -1.20 0.58 72
Jamie McMurray 24 56% 3137 82 127.6 57 -3.00 0.34 70.6
Ryan Blaney 24 61% 1418 85.3 105.6 63.5 -1.00 0.75 42.1
Paul Menard 10 27% 3093 66 104 24.8 -0.20 0.28 79.2
Chris Buescher 4 8% 1236 60.5 76.2 49.6 3.70 0.38 26.6
Kevin Harvick 266 73% 3051 103.5 141.4 39.3 1.20 3.45 102.1
Brad Keselowski 158 68% 2839 96 143.3 64 -1.90 3.24 79.3
Denny Hamlin 80 71% 3171 93.6 119.5 69.6 -2.60 1.31 49.9
Joey Logano 79 62% 2993 91.1 128.7 61.5 -4.70 3.12 67.2

 

Momentum

    Avg. Avg. Avg.   Top Top Top Top Pos Avg.
Driver Races Start Run Pos. Finish Wins 5s 10s 15s 20s Diff. Rating
Chase Elliott 5 8.6 7.2 5 1 3 5 5 5 3.6 117.2
Kevin Harvick 5 15 8.4 5.8 1 3 5 5 5 9.2 115.5
Kyle Busch 5 8 9 6.8 1 3 4 4 5 1.2 112.6
Brad Keselowski 5 12.6 12.2 14.8 1 2 2 2 4 -2.2 92.3
Kurt Busch 5 14.6 10.4 6.2 1 1 5 5 5 8.4 99.9
Erik Jones 5 7.4 8.4 7.2 0 3 4 5 5 0.2 103
Kyle Larson 5 11.4 9.6 10.2 0 2 3 3 4 1.2 100
Joey Logano 5 14.4 16 15.8 0 2 3 3 3 -1.4 83.2
Daniel Suarez 5 19.8 15.2 12.8 0 2 2 3 4 7 86
Ryan Blaney 5 16.6 11.2 10.2 0 1 2 5 5 6.4 94
Alex Bowman 5 13.6 15.8 13.4 0 1 2 3 4 0.2 82
Martin Truex Jr 5 7.8 10.6 14.4 0 1 1 4 4 -6.6 98.8
Austin Dillon 5 20.4 15.4 14.6 0 1 1 3 4 5.8 75.5
Denny Hamlin 5 2.4 9.6 11 0 0 3 5 5 -8.6 94
Jamie McMurray 5 17 16.6 17.2 0 0 2 2 3 -0.2 76.9

 

 

Points Changes at Brickyard 400

DraftKings

  17 Race Season DK Pts +/-
Driver Total Avg DK Pts. Season AVG
Kasey Kahne 67.5 26.89 40.6
Matt Kenseth 61.75 21.33 40.4
Timmy Hill 53 12.69 40.3
AJ Allmendinger 63 24.92 38.1
Matt DiBenedetto 55 22.27 32.7
Chris Buescher 52 26.11 25.9
Brad Keselowski 56.75 33.14 23.6
Ryan Newman 46.5 24.9 21.6
Daniel Suarez 45.5 29.62 15.9
Gray Gaulding 31 16.11 14.9
Landon Cassill 31 18.86 12.1
Aric Almirola 50 38.48 11.5
Ty Dillon 34 22.89 11.1
BJ McLeod 20 10.67 9.3
Jeffrey Earnhardt 28 18.7 9.3
Michael McDowell 32 22.81 9.2
Paul Menard 29 24.02 5.0
Joey Logano 43 38.06 4.9
Austin Dillon 23.5 28.24 -4.7
Jamie McMurray 18 23.36 -5.4
JJ Yeley 3 16.43 -13.4
Corey LaJoie -4 13.66 -17.7
Denny Hamlin 15.5 37.82 -22.3
Ryan Blaney 13 36.68 -23.7
David Ragan -2 22.79 -24.8
Kyle Larson 13.5 41.34 -27.8
Ricky Stenhouse Jr -5 25.04 -30.0
Kevin Harvick 36.5 67.45 -31.0
Jimmie Johnson -6 31.7 -37.7
Clint Bowyer 5.5 45.01 -39.5
Erik Jones -8.5 32.63 -41.1
Kurt Busch -2 40.65 -42.7
Kyle Busch 18.75 62.96 -44.2
Martin Truex Jr -6 48.05 -54.1
Chase Elliott -18 38.43 -56.4
       
    AVG. +/- 25.2

FanDuel

  17 Race 18 Season FD Pts +/-
Driver Total Avg FD Pts. Season AVG
Kasey Kahne 69.9 44.95 24.95
Timmy Hill 55.2 30.38 24.82
Matt Kenseth 59.3 38.93 20.37
AJ Allmendinger 62.2 42.81 19.39
Matt DiBenedetto 59.2 41.42 17.78
Brad Keselowski 63.5 50.10 13.40
Chris Buescher 57.2 45.40 11.80
Ryan Newman 57.2 46.22 10.98
Daniel Suarez 54.7 47.78 6.92
Gray Gaulding 38.7 34.73 3.97
Michael McDowell 42.6 39.07 3.53
Landon Cassill 39.7 38.01 1.69
Jeffrey Earnhardt 36.2 36.35 -0.15
Ty Dillon 43 43.44 -0.44
Aric Almirola 52.7 53.92 -1.22
Joey Logano 55.2 56.69 -1.49
Paul Menard 42.2 44.40 -2.20
BJ McLeod 26.5 28.82 -2.32
Jamie McMurray 36.7 45.52 -8.82
Austin Dillon 35.7 48.80 -13.10
Kevin Harvick 49.7 64.27 -14.57
Denny Hamlin 34.6 54.63 -20.03
Ryan Blaney 28.3 50.07 -21.77
Kyle Larson 26.9 55.89 -28.99
JJ Yeley 9 38.35 -29.35
Corey LaJoie -2.1 27.78 -29.88
Jimmie Johnson 18.3 49.00 -30.70
Clint Bowyer 20.8 57.27 -36.47
Kurt Busch 18.4 55.16 -36.76
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 9.6 46.55 -36.95
Erik Jones 13.8 52.51 -38.71
David Ragan 4.6 44.46 -39.86
Martin Truex Jr 6.3 57.77 -51.47
Kyle Busch 10.2 63.89 -53.69
Chase Elliott -5.2 54.46 -59.66
       
    AVG. +/- 20.52

 

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers

DraftKings

Rank Driver Value Rank Driver Value
1 Kevin Harvick 5.53 40 BJ McLeod 2.27
2 Kyle Busch 5.38 39 Reed Sorenson 2.57
3 Clint Bowyer 5.00 38 Corey Lajoie 2.68
4 Aric Almirola 4.81 37 Timmy Hill 2.76
5 Martin Truex Jr 4.76 36 Jamie McMurray 2.96
6 Kurt Busch 4.62 35 Matt Kenseth 3.05
7 Joey Logano 4.43 34 William Byron 3.36
8 Chase Elliott 4.18 33 Brad Keselowski 3.38
9 David Ragan 4.14 32 JJ Yeley 3.42
10 Matt DiBenedetto 4.12 31 Ricky Stenhouse Jr 3.43

FanDuel

Rank Driver Value Rank Driver Value
1 J.J. Yeley 9.59 40 Brad Keselowski 4.28
2 Ross Chastain 8.88 39 Kyle Larson 4.37
3 Matt DiBenedetto 8.28 38 Joey Logano 4.53
4 Jeffrey Earnhardt 8.08 37 Kyle Busch 4.56
5 Michael McDowell 7.81 36 Kevin Harvick 4.69
6 Gray Gaulding 7.72 35 Martin Truex Jr. 4.70
7 Timmy Hill 7.59 34 Matt Kenseth 4.75
8 Ty Dillon 7.24 33 Denny Hamlin 4.75
9 B.J. McLeod 7.21 32 Chase Elliott 4.86
10 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 7.16 31 Ryan Blaney 5.11

 

Drivers To Watch This Week:

Jimmie Johnson: Johnson sits 15th in the playoff standings heading into this week and is +87 above the cut line which means a decent finish and he should be safe even if someone not currently in the playoffs wins. His history here is pretty solid as well with a top-five and three top-15s in the last four races with three wins, five top-fives, five top-10s, and 269 laps led in the last 10 races. He is getting tired of hearing about how they’ve struggled this year and most of last year as well, he could put that to bed with a strong performance on Sunday.

Alex Bowman: Bowman is just below his teammate and the man on the bubble heading into the season finale with a 68-point cushion. In his precious two Cup races here he hasn’t run well but that was in subpar equipment and certainly not anywhere close to what he’s piloting now. As long as no one new wins this week, or at least a new winner who isn’t in the playoffs, he should be advancing to the Chase field at Vegas next week. The last few weeks he has been showing good speed, and that should continue here.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Stenhouse is the first man out of the playoffs right now and has a tough task ahead of him this week in trying to win to get in given his struggles here. Only one top-15 in the last four isn’t going to cut it this week but his crew chief has been known to pull late race strategy calls that wind up helping him. He is bottom mid-tier to low-tier salary guy on both sites, which is where he should be, but if he shows speed he might just be worth a flier.

Ryan Newman: Newman is an Indiana man and so winning again at the Brickyard would be not only big for him as a win at his home track but it would also put him into the playoff field. In the last four he has similar stats to JJ but in the last 10 he’s got a win, three top-10s, and eight top-15s with 45 laps led. Last year in Phoenix Newman’s crew chief made a late race call to stay out and that won him his one race win in the last few years, a similar call might be necessary this week, along with similar speed to what he showed at Darlington a week ago.

Daniel Suarez: It was before the Chicago race that Suarez guaranteed that he would make the playoffs and now this week is his last chance to make that guarantee hold true. He is 20th in the playoff standings and needs nothing short of a win to make the Chase being nearly 100 points on the outside. Suarez has two races here in the Xfinity and Cup series so far in his career and both races had the same finiish for him at P7. In the Cup series race last year he had a +8 position differntial which only ups his value. He is a mid-tier guy salary-wise on both sites this week and with him needing a win and nothing less to make the playoffs expect him to be aggressive on the restarts and with strategy calls to try and finish off the regular season with a win.