Happy Memorial Day weekend everyone! It’s a great weekend to enjoy family and friends and think about those that have served so bravely so we can enjoy or freedoms of barbecues and the ability to play DFS and enjoy NASCAR racing in one of it’s biggest races of the year.

Charlotte Motor Speedway hosts it’s first points-race of the year this weekend with the Coca-Cola 600, it’s also the longest race of the year at 600 miles. Charlotte is a 1.5-mile long quad-oval (some say D-shaped) track because it has two bends in the front straightaway. The turns are banked at 24 degrees in all four corners without progressive banking. As far as it goes, it’s a fairly standard layout for a track of this distance.

Most of the past winners have started in the top-10 but of late (the last three races here overall) the winners have come from 11th-27th in the starting grid. As far a passing is concerned, there are eight drivers in the field with a +6 or better position differential this week in the last four races. 

A few things to keep in mind for this race are that it’s a night time race while the practices are all morning and mid-day meaning the speeds will be faster during the race than practice and the cars will handle differently as well. The race setups this week are more standard for a 1.5-mile track than they were for the All-Star race last week when they had the restrictor plate in place and big spoilers.

 

Track Data

Last Four Races at Charlotte Motor Speedway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Martin Truex Jr48.34.84.523344716
Jimmie Johnson414.35712334195
Austin Dillon420.514.315.3111232
Denny Hamlin45710.803333107
Matt Kenseth412.596023445
Kevin Harvick43.39.812.802333206
Ryan Newman415.818.515.8013331
Jamie McMurray41711.811.5012344
Kyle Larson424.51115.30123312
Brad Keselowski410.316.516.5012330
Chase Elliott46.315.820.301222115
Kyle Busch46.512.317.50122286
Kasey Kahne418.520.317.3012222
Kurt Busch4149.310.5003331
Daniel Suarez217148.5001220
Ryan Blaney414.516.520.8001120
Erik Jones221.519.512001120
Joey Logano415.818.823001114
Ricky Stenhouse Jr413.316.515.8000342
Paul Menard418.820.320.8000134
Clint Bowyer417.820.520.3000122
Michael McDowell422.82825.5000120
Aric Almirola325.722.721.7000110
Chris Buescher424.522.522.8000030
AJ Allmendinger416.52022.8000030
Landon Cassill431.52724.8000010
JJ Yeley1333026000000
David Ragan43228.328.5000000
Reed Sorenson43734.532.3000000
Matt DiBenedetto429.330.829.3000000
Timmy Hill2363431000000
Gray Gaulding233.532.531.5000000
Corey LaJoie239.530.530000000
Ty Dillon2272628.5000000
BJ McLeod1333632000000
Alex Bowman123239000000
Darrell Wallace Jr0000000000
Parker Kligerman0000000000
Ross Chastain0000000000
William Byron0000000000

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedHigh toLow to
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiffPts./RaceAvg RatingAvg Rating
Martin Truex Jr23398%1471127.415092.13.8044.7522.635.3
Jimmie Johnson17697%1470114.5133.696.47.3012.1919.118.1
Austin Dillon1873%139584103.468.75.200.1319.415.3
Denny Hamlin6694%1445104.3111.895.8-5.806.697.58.5
Matt Kenseth5489%147199.4116.891.36.500.3117.48.1
Kevin Harvick15682%1292109.5140.677.1-9.5012.8831.132.4
Ryan Newman456%117775.499.938.50.000.0624.536.9
Jamie McMurray1169%39587.5103.366.25.500.2515.821.3
Kyle Larson7275%136397.1110.480.19.200.7513.317
Brad Keselowski2967%109079.2113.629.7-6.200.0034.449.5
Chase Elliott8761%101489.911935.2-14.007.1929.154.7
Kyle Busch12271%145798.1125.572.2-11.005.3827.425.9
Kasey Kahne2441%131070.893.4461.200.1322.624.8
Kurt Busch1593%147192.9101.678.33.500.068.714.6
Daniel Suarez660%73784.986.483.48.500.001.51.5
Ryan Blaney648%143777.189.663.6-6.300.0012.513.5
Erik Jones940%73775.994.657.19.500.0018.718.8
Joey Logano2642%138874.3107.244.9-7.200.2532.929.4
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1047%147074.179.961.5-2.500.135.812.6
Paul Menard015%139464.371.152.2-2.000.256.812.1
Clint Bowyer133%14646683.455.7-2.500.1317.410.3
Michael McDowell123%14175464.836.2-2.700.0010.817.8
Aric Almirola2010%106661.468.156.34.000.006.75.1
Chris Buescher414%145856.56339.91.700.006.516.6
AJ Allmendinger2819%138769.17760.5-6.300.007.98.6
Landon Cassill01%145847.150.744.36.700.003.62.8
JJ Yeley31%147147.747.747.77.000.0000
David Ragan31%138445.653.240.83.500.007.64.8
Reed Sorenson00%122633.439.223.44.700.005.810
Matt DiBenedetto40%119841.64937.30.000.007.44.3
Timmy Hill00%71031.433.729.1  2.32.3
Gray Gaulding00%66035.638.932.22.000.003.33.4
Corey LaJoie00%64839.240.3389.500.001.11.2
Ty Dillon102%5795364.241.7-1.500.0011.211.3
BJ McLeod00%32630.830.830.8  00
Alex Bowman518%6151.951.951.9-37.000.0000
Darrell Wallace Jr00%00000.001.0000
Parker Kligerman00%00000.002.0000
Ross Chastain00%00000.003.0000
William Byron00%00000.000.0000

*Laps Comp. is out of 1,471 run total over the last four races at Charlotte Motor Speedway

Top-15 Drivers at Last 10 races at Charlotte Motor Speedway

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kevin Harvick106.77.77.226999522
Martin Truex Jr101389.625688847
Jimmie Johnson1011.58.215.124557491
Joey Logano1013.213.614.513467248
Brad Keselowski1012.213.714.51267868
Austin Dillon819.913.914.1112479
Denny Hamlin105.88.59.905888188
Matt Kenseth1010.910.41105689249
Kasey Kahne101617.415.203577301
Kyle Busch10710.915.803567200
Jamie McMurray1019.813.712.303461045
Kurt Busch1012.79.612.502688129
Ryan Newman1015.615.912017995
Kyle Larson923.114.418.70134520
Chase Elliott510.617.219.801223115

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Kevin Harvick38892%3494115.7145.377.1-0.5013.0568.2
Martin Truex Jr33586%3668109.215079.63.4021.1870.4
Jimmie Johnson33188%3665106.9140.868.7-3.6012.2872.1
Joey Logano10762%358890146.444.9-1.306.20101.5
Brad Keselowski12868%320987.6113.629.7-2.301.7083.9
Austin Dillon3970%286284.7103.568.75.800.2834.8
Denny Hamlin15486%3645102.811578.9-4.104.7036.1
Matt Kenseth17979%357398.7117.764.8-0.106.2352.9
Kasey Kahne23949%323585.9140.441.40.807.5399
Kyle Busch20373%3515100.4125.572.2-8.805.0053.3
Jamie McMurray4760%183885.7112.760.37.501.1352.4
Kurt Busch11688%354397.7122.251.60.203.2370.6
Ryan Newman3158%337883106.638.53.601.0068.1
Kyle Larson11953%307385.8110.463.54.400.5646.9
Chase Elliott8749%141385.211935.2-9.205.7583.8

*Laps Comp. out of 3,673 run over the last 10 races at Charlotte Motor Speedway

Top-15 Drivers at Races on Similar Tracks (since 2015)

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kyle Larson2016.111.813.849101414339
Martin Truex Jr209.18.39.43101416171439
Kyle Busch199.811.813.436101215387
Jimmie Johnson2015.212.11535101114385
Joey Logano2010.410.111.229151515623
Kevin Harvick206.79.910.2111141717633
Brad Keselowski209.61212.117121417174
Matt Kenseth1810.310.114.31571214344
Austin Dillon2014.315.816.5126101430
Denny Hamlin196.99.713.108111314264
Chase Elliott1613.110.310.306121314195
Kurt Busch2012.712.912.103111517108
Jamie McMurray2015.713.411.3031114195
Ryan Newman2014.516.715.403712167
Ryan Blaney1810.713.616.60261012148

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts./RaceRange
Kyle Larson30773%493096.8144.329.82.304.24114.5
Martin Truex Jr69085%520211315055.9-0.3017.9994.1
Kyle Busch39673%508498.8135.362.8-3.605.0972.5
Jimmie Johnson36069%545496.2133.660.60.204.8173
Joey Logano24279%5362101.5149.244.9-0.807.79104.3
Kevin Harvick51679%5268108.214459.6-3.507.9184.4
Brad Keselowski14677%491894117.529.7-2.502.1887.8
Matt Kenseth28881%480898148.865.3-4.004.7883.5
Austin Dillon8257%530679112.335.9-2.200.3876.4
Denny Hamlin17285%505697.5116.755-6.203.4761.7
Chase Elliott23782%405098.6126.535.22.803.0591.3
Kurt Busch12070%545487.9135.4360.601.3599.4
Jamie McMurray3167%145384.3105.464.44.400.0641
Ryan Newman1148%512874.699.938.5-0.900.0961.4
Ryan Blaney12465%499386.6121.863.6-5.902.0658.2

*Laps Comp. is out of 5,458 total laps run over the last five races at Charlotte, Michigan, Texas, and Auto Club.

Momentum

This will update each week with the most recent race making the fifth race. Therefore it will be a rolling total of just how hot a driver has been over that stretch.

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopPosAvg.
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sDiff.Rating
Kevin Harvick510.673.6245557117.5
Joey Logano59.86.66134553.8110.6
Kyle Busch511.88.21222344-0.2109.1
Kurt Busch55.4119.602344-4.297.4
Aric Almirola520.212.2100034510.285.3
Jimmie Johnson518.413.89.8013458.689.5
Brad Keselowski510.810.216.800233-697.6
Denny Hamlin59.8118.6023551.293.3
Clint Bowyer516.612.813013443.688.5
Kyle Larson511.21312.602444-1.4101.5
Ricky Stenhouse Jr58.814.211.602244-2.882.6
Chase Elliott59.215.411.602244-2.480.5
Daniel Suarez514.615.212.4013442.280.8
Martin Truex Jr5815.215.202233-7.285.7
Alex Bowman512.815.614.401224-1.683.5

 

Points Changes at Coca-Cola 600

The 2017 race points are the points scored in this specific race a year ago. The season DK points average is what the driver is averaging for the races thus far in 2018. It's a good way to see how much over or right on the average that driver did at this track a year prior. Clearly, each race is different, but it's a way to gauge who fits what lineup format better. The drivers closer to their average might be better for cash whereas those to the more extreme ends of the table could fit GPPs better with a boom-or-bust type showing. The Avg. +/- number means that the whole field in general has either done better or worse than their season averages by that number.

 17 RaceSeasonDK Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg DK Pts.Season AVG
Martin Truex Jr148.7539.7109.1
Kyle Busch91.2560.0231.2
Austin Dillon68.5030.1738.3
Denny Hamlin54.5043.9510.6
Jimmie Johnson54.2532.122.2
Matt Kenseth53.0012.2540.8
Kevin Harvick51.2572.15-20.9
Kurt Busch45.7536.529.2
Daniel Suarez44.5028.6115.9
Ryan Newman43.0026.9316.1
AJ Allmendinger42.0030.8511.2
Erik Jones38.5028.659.9
Paul Menard37.5024.313.2
Chris Buescher33.0025.797.2
Jamie McMurray32.0024.427.6
Ricky Stenhouse Jr29.5020.758.8
Michael McDowell27.0024.023.0
David Ragan26.5026.430.1
JJ Yeley26.50206.5
Clint Bowyer25.5047.61-22.1
Joey Logano25.0047.05-22.1
Gray Gaulding22.0018.123.9
Timmy Hill22.0016.85.2
Kyle Larson21.5042.6-21.1
Corey LaJoie20.0016.573.4
Landon Cassill19.0023.71-4.7
Reed Sorenson19.0026.57-7.6
Ty Dillon4.0023.57-19.6
Ryan Blaney3.5041.61-38.1
Matt DiBenedetto0.0026.07-26.1
Kasey Kahne-2.0026.43-28.4
Brad Keselowski-24.0037.55-61.6
Chase Elliott-29.0036.06-65.1
    
  AVG. +/-21.5

 

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers

Draft Kings

RankDriverFPPKRankDriverFPPK
1Kevin Harvick5.9139Matt Kenseth1.63
2Kyle Busch5.4138Jamie McMurray3.21
3Clint Bowyer5.0637Corey Lajoie3.25
4AJ Allmendinger4.8236Ryan Newman3.41
5Denny Hamlin4.7835Erik Jones3.49
6Aric Almirola4.7134Paul Menard3.52
7Joey Logano4.7133Jeffrey Earnhardt3.59
8Ryan Blaney4.6832Ricky Stenhouse Jr3.64
9Matt DiBenedetto4.5731Jimmie Johnson3.69
10David Ragan4.5630Martin Truex Jr3.71

Fan Duel

RankDriverFPPKRankDriverFPPK
1J.J. Yeley12.5639Matt Kenseth3.62
2Landon Cassill8.6938Martin Truex Jr.4.41
3Gray Gaulding8.0537Kurt Busch5.00
4Ross Chastain7.7236Brad Keselowski5.05
5Ty Dillon7.6835Corey LaJoie5.09
6Michael McDowell7.4034Erik Jones5.11
7David Ragan7.0533Jamie McMurray5.14
8Chris Buescher7.0432Kevin Harvick5.14
9Matt DiBenedetto6.9631Kyle Larson5.22
10Alex Bowman6.7930Daniel Suarez5.30

 

Drivers To Watch this Week:

Kevin Harvick: By now it’s clear that Harvick should be considered the driver to beat every time he steps foot on a track. A win here last week in the All-Star race solidified his dominance as he still led the most laps and won three of the four stages even with limited practice and a completely new setup he’d never driven. His stats in the 600 are solid but not quite as good as previous tracks. He has two top-fives, three top-10s and 206 laps led in the last four but has two wins, six top-fives, and nine top-10s in the last 10 races here. He is the most expensive driver on both sites, and by a lot with $1,100 and $1,300 difference on DK and FD respectively.

Martin Truex Jr.: Truex has DOMINATED this track recently with two wins, three top-10s, four top-15s and 716 laps led in the last four races. That laps led total is more than 3x more than the next closest guy (Harvick). In fact he has more fastest laps 233 than the rest of the field, but also more than the laps led by Harvick, the next closest guy to him. In terms of 1.5-mile tracks he’s been nearly unbeatable the last two years, though this year he has yet to register a win on one. He should still be considered an elite driver this week especially given his 392 laps led performance from two years ago.

Denny Hamlin: Hamlin hasn’t made many of this list this year but he has been consistent overall. That’s the same case this week as he has eight top-10s in the last 10 races here and 12 in the last 14. He doesn’t have a win here in the last 10, but he does have three top-fives in the last four here with 107 laps led. Hamlin has put up seven 40+ point races in the nine races dating back to Phoenix not including the 54-point night he had for the All-Star race. At the high-end of mid-tier pricing he should be able to be fit into any format lineup.

Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is still in the midst of a slump, though he’s looked better in the last few races. He does have a win, two top-fives, and three top-10s in the last four races with 195 laps led in that span. His 1.5-mile career is legendary, legitimately, with 28 wins (most all-time) at that distance and he’s led 1,030 laps in his career specifically in this race, that’s third all-time. With his recent good showing (three 49+-point races in the last five) his stock is starting to rise though he still fits better in a GPP than cash.

Austin Dillon: Dillon scored his first ever win in the Cup series in this race a year ago with a well-managed fuel plan to come out on top. It is essentially his home track with him being born in the Charlotte-area and watching his grandfather’s (Richard Childress) team cars race around the track. Dillon though hasn’t shown greatly here with just one top-10 and two top-15s in the last four and two laps led. In post-practice interviews though he said he loves the speed his car has shown this week (in one practice) so that should account for something.