From a track that is wild crazy and long last week to a track that’s wild and crazy and short this week. Talladega is the longest track on the schedule, but this week’s challenge is one of the shortest at 1-mile in length. Dover International Speedway and the “Monster Mile” is the host for this week’s AAA 400 Drive for Autism.

Dover is a unique track among the rest of the tracks in that it is not only completely concrete, one of only a handful that are, but it’s a 1-mile banked track (the only one on the circuit that is). The turns are banked 24-degrees and the straightaways are tilted at nine degrees. Think of it as a bigger Bristol setup. Nearly the same banking all the way around, just longer straights and overall it’s twice as long per lap as Bristol. No other tracks really compare to these two.

There are only five drivers in the field this week with a position differential of +6 or better, which puts premium on the guys that can move through the field. However that also means that those that can get to the front can lead a fair amount of laps in the race. In nine of the last 10 races here, there have been more than a dozen lead changes, in the 10ththere were 10 lead changes. In four of the last six races the winner has come from 10thor further back with 14thwinning twice, including in this race a year ago. The last time a driver won from the pole was back-to-back Fall races in 2009-2010 and it was Jimmie Johnsonboth times.

A content note here, I will once again only have lineups for DraftKings this week, but will have a roster construction guide for FanDuel in the lineups post that comes out Saturday afternoon. I will include FanDuel specific data in the track breakdown and the playbook (i.e. laps led and FD specific value ratings). Next week I will be putting out full lineups for both sites.

Track Data

Last Four Races at Dover

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Martin Truex Jr43.003.54.313444387
Jimmie Johnson415.007.8912333106
Kyle Busch42.307.312.312223151
Chase Elliott412.5083.304444138
Kyle Larson410.8011.38.503333463
Brad Keselowski49.8013.814.50133395
Kasey Kahne417.3013.511.8011340
Ryan Newman412.0014.312.5011241
Kurt Busch49.8017.319.3011230
Denny Hamlin47.3011.814.80033315
Jamie McMurray420.5016.319.3002222
Daniel Suarez24.0010.57002220
Kevin Harvick48.5015.319.500123117
Austin Dillon414.501717.3001230
Joey Logano417.8013.517001222
Clint Bowyer425.3022.318.3001220
Trevor Bayne421.3021.818.8001120
Ryan Blaney416.0021.825.3001110
Ricky Stenhouse Jr413.502220.8000233
Erik Jones28.5011.513.5000220
Ty Dillon326.702422.70001127
Paul Menard423.302323000110
Michael McDowell328.7026.722000024
AJ Allmendinger423.0022.322000020
Chris Buescher424.3025.823.5000010
David Ragan430.0026.824.5000010
Landon Cassill431.0028.828.3000010
Aric Almirola318.7022.324000010
Ross Chastain234.003229000010
Matt DiBenedetto432.3031.831.8000000
Reed Sorenson338.7036.337.3000000
Gray Gaulding132.002724000000
Corey LaJoie137.003534000000
Cody Ware138.003535000000
Alex Bowman00.0000000000
Darrell Wallace Jr00.0000000000
Derrike Cope00.0000000000
William Byron00.0000000000

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedHigh toLow to
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiffPts./RaceAvg RatingAvg Rating
Martin Truex Jr22499%1606127.2143.2116.7-1.324.191610.5
Jimmie Johnson16289%1592106.8121.97566.6315.131.8
Kyle Busch13586%1559105.9125.176.8-109.4419.229.1
Chase Elliott7594%1606107.6129.896.79.28.6322.210.9
Kyle Larson16767%1600107.1141.958.72.328.9434.848.4
Brad Keselowski6874%126689.8111.645.4-4.75.9421.844.4
Kasey Kahne1870%160282.986.179.25.50.003.23.7
Ryan Newman2157%160080.488.175.3-0.50.007.75.1
Kurt Busch2461%128977.9108.149.7-9.50.0030.228.2
Denny Hamlin3776%157991.5101.380-7.50.949.811.5
Jamie McMurray957%139374.489.2561.20.1314.818.4
Daniel Suarez593%80692.794.191.3-30.001.41.4
Kevin Harvick13864%155893.9114.954.1-117.312139.8
Austin Dillon3049%15497593.863.8-2.80.0018.811.2
Joey Logano3165%159283.310768.60.80.1323.714.7
Clint Bowyer1529%158568.795.449.870.0026.718.9
Trevor Bayne111%159361.367.254.52.50.005.96.8
Ryan Blaney1736%145172.584.861.7-9.30.0012.310.8
Ricky Stenhouse Jr919%126062.672.337.6-7.30.199.725
Erik Jones1482%80590.49684.8-50.005.65.6
Ty Dillon1112%119358.676.442.842.2517.815.8
Paul Menard45%15345868.349.70.30.0010.38.3
Michael McDowell02%11965056.246.76.70.336.23.3
AJ Allmendinger79%158659.662.554.110.002.95.5
Chris Buescher13%158652.360.744.20.80.008.48.1
David Ragan13%157947.458.540.25.50.0011.17.2
Landon Cassill01%143944.147.841.32.70.003.72.8
Aric Almirola228%114863.169.657.9-5.30.006.55.2
Ross Chastain50%75140.645.635.650.0055
Matt DiBenedetto00%129939.341.9360.50.002.63.3
Reed Sorenson00%75128.330.526.81.46.002.21.5
Gray Gaulding01%40240.740.740.780.0000
Corey LaJoie00%38932.732.732.730.0000
Cody Ware00%28327.827.827.830.0000
Alex Bowman00%00000 00
Darrell Wallace Jr00%00000 00
Derrike Cope00%00000 00
William Byron00%00000 00

*Laps Comp. is out of 1,606 run in the last four races

Top-15 Drivers Over Last 10 Races at Dover

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Jimmie Johnson1012.38.71046778787
Kyle Busch105.38.114.815667438
Martin Truex Jr107.78.81013799520
Kevin Harvick108.310.712.512579811
Brad Keselowski108.512.513.204678204
Kyle Larson89.610.57.904677463
Chase Elliott412.583.304444138
Joey Logano1011.911.311.1026882
Kasey Kahne1017.11313.2023692
Aric Almirola920.120.618022350
Clint Bowyer1019.415.412.5016888
Jamie McMurray1014.514.716.7014663
Denny Hamlin106.110.916.901457174
Ryan Newman1011.315.517013487
Kurt Busch1012.714.919.4011378

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Jimmie Johnson49184%3960113.9148.372.896.719.6875.5
Kyle Busch29987%3658108.7130.876.858.710.9554
Martin Truex Jr32577%3889108.3143.282.782.713.0060.5
Kevin Harvick44377%3961107.3149.754.172.820.2895.6
Brad Keselowski17872%362593.913045.454.15.1084.6
Kyle Larson20277%3205102.6141.958.776.814.4783.2
Chase Elliott7594%1606107.6129.896.745.48.6333.1
Joey Logano6079%399792.7108.368.668.60.0539.7
Kasey Kahne13771%40008797.979.291.30.0518.7
Aric Almirola4625%354670.791.156.379.20.0034.8
Clint Bowyer8659%399085.1100.749.849.80.0050.9
Jamie McMurray3263%37778199.556560.0843.5
Denny Hamlin9575%395891.810375754.3528
Ryan Newman5747%388679.3106.764.484.80.1842.3
Kurt Busch11363%368082.2108.149.756.30.2058.4

*Laps Comp. is out of 4,011 laps run in the last 10 races at Dover

Top-15 Drivers on Similar Tracks (since 2013)

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Jimmie Johnson2013.111.110.5511131416912
Kyle Busch197.510.718.237910111240
Joey Logano209.112.611.326131617381
Kevin Harvick2012.39.913.8251114161260
Martin Truex Jr2011.412.617.21381112638
Kyle Larson1712.911.412.3051113131025
Brad Keselowski208.114.917.80581012361
Chase Elliott910.811.79.605678154
Denny Hamlin206.812.116.10491114316
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2018.719.215.704711163
Kurt Busch2012.515.419.4044812229
Clint Bowyer2019.616.212.80310151763
Kasey Kahne2014.614.316.903591558
Aric Almirola1922.220.719.20348110
Ryan Newman2013.314.615.1028111617

 

 FastTop 15LapsAvg.HighLowPosLaps LedRating
DriverLapsRateComp.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts./RaceRange
Jimmie Johnson70275%8911103.7148.350.284.811.4098.1
Kyle Busch63576%7594104.3133.266.637.616.3266.6
Joey Logano24473%894996.3137.841.656.34.7696.2
Kevin Harvick89382%8828106.9149.754.149.715.7595.6
Martin Truex Jr51463%875595.3143.236.437.17.98106.8
Kyle Larson54874%7532101.5141.958.750.115.0783.2
Brad Keselowski31964%847486.213038.654.14.5191.4
Chase Elliott14977%407894.8129.837.376.84.2892.5
Denny Hamlin24673%861292.3120.248.549.80.0071.7
Ricky Stenhouse Jr15437%836874.198.937.661.70.0461.3
Kurt Busch26660%850084.3113.149.749.72.8663.4
Clint Bowyer15553%897180.7108.535.868.60.7972.7
Kasey Kahne27964%869183.5108.252.364.40.7355.9
Aric Almirola8729%804569101.943.182.70.0058.8
Ryan Newman10158%888481.5106.764.444.20.2142.3

*Laps Comp. is out of 9,025 laps run at the last 10 Dover races and the last 10 Bristol races combined.

Momentum (last five races of 2018)

This will update each week with the most recent race making the fifth race. Therefore it will be a rolling total of just how hot a driver has been over that stretch.

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopPosAvg.
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sDiff.Rating
Kyle Busch512.45.83.6344558.8121.3
Joey Logano56.46.25.2125551.2111.8
Clint Bowyer5101111.611444-1.696.7
Kevin Harvick5128.84.6045557.4108
Chase Elliott512.815.610.802344279.8
Ryan Blaney5108.816.602223-6.693.6
Ricky Stenhouse Jr513.218.218.802222-5.671
Alex Bowman512.41813.201334-0.877.8
Kurt Busch54.41010.601244-6.2100.4
Jimmie Johnson515.414.814.2012441.288.1
Kyle Larson51016.620.201223-10.285.8
Denny Hamlin58.811.815.401144-6.696.7
Martin Truex Jr57.419.222.201122-14.875.8
Erik Jones51218.419.801123-7.871.6
Jamie McMurray523.218.819011134.268.7

 

Points Changes at Dover

The 2017 race points are the points scored in this specific race a year ago. The season DK points average is what the driver is averaging for the races thus far in 2018. It's a good way to see how much over or right on the average that driver did at this track a year prior. Clearly, each race is different, but it's a way to gauge who fits what lineup format better. The drivers closer to their average might be better for cash whereas those to the more extreme ends of the table could fit GPPs better with a boom-or-bust type showing. The Avg. +/- number means that the whole field in general has either done better or worse than their season averages by that number.

 17 RaceSeasonDK Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg DK Pts.Season AVG
Kyle Larson144.2537.4106.9
Martin Truex Jr91.5039.2952.2
Jimmie Johnson79.2529.7149.5
Chase Elliott54.0034.0220.0
Jamie McMurray50.5024.5226.0
Kevin Harvick50.5063.9-13.4
Ryan Newman49.7531.4218.3
Ty Dillon46.2524.3621.9
Denny Hamlin41.0043.33-2.3
Ross Chastain40.0020.4419.6
Kyle Busch39.7569.46-29.7
Daniel Suarez35.5026.369.1
Michael McDowell35.0020.5814.4
Kasey Kahne34.0023.510.5
AJ Allmendinger32.0027.025.0
Austin Dillon29.5029.83-0.3
Gray Gaulding28.0016.8911.1
Erik Jones27.0026.650.4
Chris Buescher27.0028.18-1.2
Joey Logano20.0047.29-27.3
Trevor Bayne19.5018.770.7
David Ragan17.0024.68-7.7
Cody Ware12.00012.0
Matt DiBenedetto11.0025.32-14.3
Clint Bowyer5.5048.64-43.1
Paul Menard1.0023.16-22.2
Ryan Blaney0.0046.73-46.7
Landon Cassill-1.0022.75-23.8
Kurt Busch-18.5036.6-55.1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr-19.7525.44-45.2
Brad Keselowski-23.5036.88-60.4
  AVG +/-24.8

 

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers

DraftKings

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Kyle Busch5.9937Cody Ware0.00
2Kevin Harvick5.8136Reed Sorenson2.02
3Clint Bowyer5.5335Corey Lajoie2.90
4Ryan Blaney5.2534Trevor Bayne3.13
5Chris Buescher5.0333Erik Jones3.25
6Joey Logano4.9832Jimmie Johnson3.30
7Matt DiBenedetto4.8731Jamie McMurray3.31
8Aric Almirola4.8230Ricky Stenhouse Jr3.35
9David Ragan4.6629Paul Menard3.41
10Alex Bowman4.5028Brad Keselowski3.55

FanDuel

RankDriverValueRankDriverValue
1Landon Cassill10.0637Jimmie Johnson4.01
2Matt DiBenedetto9.2036Kyle Larson4.48
3Cole Custer8.9835Martin Truex Jr.4.61
4Ross Chastain8.5634Brad Keselowski4.64
5David Ragan8.4533Chase Elliott4.68
6Gray Gaulding7.9932Corey LaJoie4.80
7Ty Dillon7.5531Erik Jones5.08
8AJ Allmendinger7.3030Reed Sorenson5.16
9Trevor Bayne7.2129Ryan Blaney5.36
10Chris Buescher7.1328Kurt Busch5.39

Drivers To Watch This Week:

Martin Truex Jr.: Truex has been stellar at Dover since the start of 2016 with a win, three top-fives, four top-10s and 387 laps led, in addition to 224 fastest laps. His 99% top-15 rate is almost unheard of and he has completed every one of the 1,606 laps in that span. His 4.3 average finish is second-best in the field after starting 3.0 in the last four. His seven top-10s in the last 10 races are tied for best in the field and add to the cash value Truex has this week at $10,800 on DK and $11,800 on FD as the fourth and fifth-most expensive driver respectively.

Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has been coming around recently with four top-15s in the last five races this season including a top-five and two top-10s. For Dover specifically, he has a win, two top-fives, and three top-10s in the last four races with 106 laps led. The 48-car has been on track for all but 14 laps in the last four races but he really shines in the 10-race picture. Four wins, six top-fives, seven top-10s and 787 laps led in that span state his bona fides here. There is a big difference in price on the two sites with Johnson being $9,000 on DK and $12,300 on FD. The mid-tier range works for a cash game play as does the elite level on FD but you will need more budget plays to fit him and Truex on FD.

Chase Elliott: Chase has the best position differential in the field this week with a +9.2 mark in the last four races. Aside from that he also has the best average finish at 3.3 in that span with four top-fives and 138 laps. Everyone should remember how close he came to winning here last fall before he couldn’t pass Ryan Newmanand Kyle Buschcaught him with a few laps to go. He like JJ is also finding his stride with three top-10s in the last five races this season. His salaries ($9,300 DK, $11,500 on FD) make him workable across the board.

Kyle Larson: The story for Larson here is like many tracks on the schedule, he leads a lot of laps but doesn’t win. He has 463 laps out front here (best in the field) and 167 fastest laps (second in the field) and has three top-fives in the last four races here. Larson has also run all but six laps since 2016. Over last 10 (he’s run in eight) he’s posted four top-fives, six top-10s and the same 463 laps led and his 7.9 average finish is the best in that time frame. The 42-car is priced as an elite driver this week at $10,200 on DraftKings and $12,000 even on FanDuel.

Daniel Suarez: It’s the first time making this section for Suarez this season but it’s not by chance. He’s scored two top-10 finishes here in the last two races (his only MENCS experience at the track) and run in the top-15 93%. Along with completing all 806 laps in those trips he has a very good 92.7 average driver rating. On both sites, he is squarely in the mid-tier salary range at $7,100 on DK and $8,300 on FD and will work for either format, though more GPP leaning than cash.