From a track that is wild crazy and long last week to a track that’s wild and crazy and short this week. Talladega is the longest track on the schedule, but this week’s challenge is one of the shortest at 1-mile in length. Dover International Speedway and the “Monster Mile” is the host for this week’s AAA 400 Drive for Autism.
Dover is a unique track among the rest of the tracks in that it is not only completely concrete, one of only a handful that are, but it’s a 1-mile banked track (the only one on the circuit that is). The turns are banked 24-degrees and the straightaways are tilted at nine degrees. Think of it as a bigger Bristol setup. Nearly the same banking all the way around, just longer straights and overall it’s twice as long per lap as Bristol. No other tracks really compare to these two.
There are only five drivers in the field this week with a position differential of +6 or better, which puts premium on the guys that can move through the field. However that also means that those that can get to the front can lead a fair amount of laps in the race. In nine of the last 10 races here, there have been more than a dozen lead changes, in the 10ththere were 10 lead changes. In four of the last six races the winner has come from 10thor further back with 14thwinning twice, including in this race a year ago. The last time a driver won from the pole was back-to-back Fall races in 2009-2010 and it was Jimmie Johnsonboth times.
A content note here, I will once again only have lineups for DraftKings this week, but will have a roster construction guide for FanDuel in the lineups post that comes out Saturday afternoon. I will include FanDuel specific data in the track breakdown and the playbook (i.e. laps led and FD specific value ratings). Next week I will be putting out full lineups for both sites.
Track Data
Last Four Races at Dover
Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
Martin Truex Jr | 4 | 3.00 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 387 |
Jimmie Johnson | 4 | 15.00 | 7.8 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 106 |
Kyle Busch | 4 | 2.30 | 7.3 | 12.3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 151 |
Chase Elliott | 4 | 12.50 | 8 | 3.3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 138 |
Kyle Larson | 4 | 10.80 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 463 |
Brad Keselowski | 4 | 9.80 | 13.8 | 14.5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 95 |
Kasey Kahne | 4 | 17.30 | 13.5 | 11.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Ryan Newman | 4 | 12.00 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Kurt Busch | 4 | 9.80 | 17.3 | 19.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Denny Hamlin | 4 | 7.30 | 11.8 | 14.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
Jamie McMurray | 4 | 20.50 | 16.3 | 19.3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Daniel Suarez | 2 | 4.00 | 10.5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Kevin Harvick | 4 | 8.50 | 15.3 | 19.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 117 |
Austin Dillon | 4 | 14.50 | 17 | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Joey Logano | 4 | 17.80 | 13.5 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Clint Bowyer | 4 | 25.30 | 22.3 | 18.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Trevor Bayne | 4 | 21.30 | 21.8 | 18.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Ryan Blaney | 4 | 16.00 | 21.8 | 25.3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 4 | 13.50 | 22 | 20.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Erik Jones | 2 | 8.50 | 11.5 | 13.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Ty Dillon | 3 | 26.70 | 24 | 22.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 27 |
Paul Menard | 4 | 23.30 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Michael McDowell | 3 | 28.70 | 26.7 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
AJ Allmendinger | 4 | 23.00 | 22.3 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Chris Buescher | 4 | 24.30 | 25.8 | 23.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
David Ragan | 4 | 30.00 | 26.8 | 24.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Landon Cassill | 4 | 31.00 | 28.8 | 28.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Aric Almirola | 3 | 18.70 | 22.3 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Ross Chastain | 2 | 34.00 | 32 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Matt DiBenedetto | 4 | 32.30 | 31.8 | 31.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Reed Sorenson | 3 | 38.70 | 36.3 | 37.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Gray Gaulding | 1 | 32.00 | 27 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Corey LaJoie | 1 | 37.00 | 35 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cody Ware | 1 | 38.00 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Alex Bowman | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Darrell Wallace Jr | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Derrike Cope | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
William Byron | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fast | Top 15 | Laps | Avg. | High | Low | Pos | Laps Led | High to | Low to | |
Driver | Laps | Rate | Comp. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff | Pts./Race | Avg Rating | Avg Rating |
Martin Truex Jr | 224 | 99% | 1606 | 127.2 | 143.2 | 116.7 | -1.3 | 24.19 | 16 | 10.5 |
Jimmie Johnson | 162 | 89% | 1592 | 106.8 | 121.9 | 75 | 6 | 6.63 | 15.1 | 31.8 |
Kyle Busch | 135 | 86% | 1559 | 105.9 | 125.1 | 76.8 | -10 | 9.44 | 19.2 | 29.1 |
Chase Elliott | 75 | 94% | 1606 | 107.6 | 129.8 | 96.7 | 9.2 | 8.63 | 22.2 | 10.9 |
Kyle Larson | 167 | 67% | 1600 | 107.1 | 141.9 | 58.7 | 2.3 | 28.94 | 34.8 | 48.4 |
Brad Keselowski | 68 | 74% | 1266 | 89.8 | 111.6 | 45.4 | -4.7 | 5.94 | 21.8 | 44.4 |
Kasey Kahne | 18 | 70% | 1602 | 82.9 | 86.1 | 79.2 | 5.5 | 0.00 | 3.2 | 3.7 |
Ryan Newman | 21 | 57% | 1600 | 80.4 | 88.1 | 75.3 | -0.5 | 0.00 | 7.7 | 5.1 |
Kurt Busch | 24 | 61% | 1289 | 77.9 | 108.1 | 49.7 | -9.5 | 0.00 | 30.2 | 28.2 |
Denny Hamlin | 37 | 76% | 1579 | 91.5 | 101.3 | 80 | -7.5 | 0.94 | 9.8 | 11.5 |
Jamie McMurray | 9 | 57% | 1393 | 74.4 | 89.2 | 56 | 1.2 | 0.13 | 14.8 | 18.4 |
Daniel Suarez | 5 | 93% | 806 | 92.7 | 94.1 | 91.3 | -3 | 0.00 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Kevin Harvick | 138 | 64% | 1558 | 93.9 | 114.9 | 54.1 | -11 | 7.31 | 21 | 39.8 |
Austin Dillon | 30 | 49% | 1549 | 75 | 93.8 | 63.8 | -2.8 | 0.00 | 18.8 | 11.2 |
Joey Logano | 31 | 65% | 1592 | 83.3 | 107 | 68.6 | 0.8 | 0.13 | 23.7 | 14.7 |
Clint Bowyer | 15 | 29% | 1585 | 68.7 | 95.4 | 49.8 | 7 | 0.00 | 26.7 | 18.9 |
Trevor Bayne | 1 | 11% | 1593 | 61.3 | 67.2 | 54.5 | 2.5 | 0.00 | 5.9 | 6.8 |
Ryan Blaney | 17 | 36% | 1451 | 72.5 | 84.8 | 61.7 | -9.3 | 0.00 | 12.3 | 10.8 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 9 | 19% | 1260 | 62.6 | 72.3 | 37.6 | -7.3 | 0.19 | 9.7 | 25 |
Erik Jones | 14 | 82% | 805 | 90.4 | 96 | 84.8 | -5 | 0.00 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
Ty Dillon | 11 | 12% | 1193 | 58.6 | 76.4 | 42.8 | 4 | 2.25 | 17.8 | 15.8 |
Paul Menard | 4 | 5% | 1534 | 58 | 68.3 | 49.7 | 0.3 | 0.00 | 10.3 | 8.3 |
Michael McDowell | 0 | 2% | 1196 | 50 | 56.2 | 46.7 | 6.7 | 0.33 | 6.2 | 3.3 |
AJ Allmendinger | 7 | 9% | 1586 | 59.6 | 62.5 | 54.1 | 1 | 0.00 | 2.9 | 5.5 |
Chris Buescher | 1 | 3% | 1586 | 52.3 | 60.7 | 44.2 | 0.8 | 0.00 | 8.4 | 8.1 |
David Ragan | 1 | 3% | 1579 | 47.4 | 58.5 | 40.2 | 5.5 | 0.00 | 11.1 | 7.2 |
Landon Cassill | 0 | 1% | 1439 | 44.1 | 47.8 | 41.3 | 2.7 | 0.00 | 3.7 | 2.8 |
Aric Almirola | 22 | 8% | 1148 | 63.1 | 69.6 | 57.9 | -5.3 | 0.00 | 6.5 | 5.2 |
Ross Chastain | 5 | 0% | 751 | 40.6 | 45.6 | 35.6 | 5 | 0.00 | 5 | 5 |
Matt DiBenedetto | 0 | 0% | 1299 | 39.3 | 41.9 | 36 | 0.5 | 0.00 | 2.6 | 3.3 |
Reed Sorenson | 0 | 0% | 751 | 28.3 | 30.5 | 26.8 | 1.4 | 6.00 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
Gray Gaulding | 0 | 1% | 402 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 40.7 | 8 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Corey LaJoie | 0 | 0% | 389 | 32.7 | 32.7 | 32.7 | 3 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Cody Ware | 0 | 0% | 283 | 27.8 | 27.8 | 27.8 | 3 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Alex Bowman | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Darrell Wallace Jr | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Derrike Cope | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
William Byron | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
*Laps Comp. is out of 1,606 run in the last four races
Top-15 Drivers Over Last 10 Races at Dover
Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
Jimmie Johnson | 10 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 787 |
Kyle Busch | 10 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 14.8 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 438 |
Martin Truex Jr | 10 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 520 |
Kevin Harvick | 10 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 811 |
Brad Keselowski | 10 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 204 |
Kyle Larson | 8 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 7.9 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 463 |
Chase Elliott | 4 | 12.5 | 8 | 3.3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 138 |
Joey Logano | 10 | 11.9 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 2 |
Kasey Kahne | 10 | 17.1 | 13 | 13.2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 2 |
Aric Almirola | 9 | 20.1 | 20.6 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Clint Bowyer | 10 | 19.4 | 15.4 | 12.5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
Jamie McMurray | 10 | 14.5 | 14.7 | 16.7 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
Denny Hamlin | 10 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 16.9 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 174 |
Ryan Newman | 10 | 11.3 | 15.5 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 7 |
Kurt Busch | 10 | 12.7 | 14.9 | 19.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 |
Fast | Top 15 | Laps | Avg. | High | Low | Pos. | Laps Led | Rating | |
Driver | Laps | Rate | Comp. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts/Race | Range |
Jimmie Johnson | 491 | 84% | 3960 | 113.9 | 148.3 | 72.8 | 96.7 | 19.68 | 75.5 |
Kyle Busch | 299 | 87% | 3658 | 108.7 | 130.8 | 76.8 | 58.7 | 10.95 | 54 |
Martin Truex Jr | 325 | 77% | 3889 | 108.3 | 143.2 | 82.7 | 82.7 | 13.00 | 60.5 |
Kevin Harvick | 443 | 77% | 3961 | 107.3 | 149.7 | 54.1 | 72.8 | 20.28 | 95.6 |
Brad Keselowski | 178 | 72% | 3625 | 93.9 | 130 | 45.4 | 54.1 | 5.10 | 84.6 |
Kyle Larson | 202 | 77% | 3205 | 102.6 | 141.9 | 58.7 | 76.8 | 14.47 | 83.2 |
Chase Elliott | 75 | 94% | 1606 | 107.6 | 129.8 | 96.7 | 45.4 | 8.63 | 33.1 |
Joey Logano | 60 | 79% | 3997 | 92.7 | 108.3 | 68.6 | 68.6 | 0.05 | 39.7 |
Kasey Kahne | 137 | 71% | 4000 | 87 | 97.9 | 79.2 | 91.3 | 0.05 | 18.7 |
Aric Almirola | 46 | 25% | 3546 | 70.7 | 91.1 | 56.3 | 79.2 | 0.00 | 34.8 |
Clint Bowyer | 86 | 59% | 3990 | 85.1 | 100.7 | 49.8 | 49.8 | 0.00 | 50.9 |
Jamie McMurray | 32 | 63% | 3777 | 81 | 99.5 | 56 | 56 | 0.08 | 43.5 |
Denny Hamlin | 95 | 75% | 3958 | 91.8 | 103 | 75 | 75 | 4.35 | 28 |
Ryan Newman | 57 | 47% | 3886 | 79.3 | 106.7 | 64.4 | 84.8 | 0.18 | 42.3 |
Kurt Busch | 113 | 63% | 3680 | 82.2 | 108.1 | 49.7 | 56.3 | 0.20 | 58.4 |
*Laps Comp. is out of 4,011 laps run in the last 10 races at Dover
Top-15 Drivers on Similar Tracks (since 2013)
Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
Jimmie Johnson | 20 | 13.1 | 11.1 | 10.5 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 912 |
Kyle Busch | 19 | 7.5 | 10.7 | 18.2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 1240 |
Joey Logano | 20 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 11.3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 381 |
Kevin Harvick | 20 | 12.3 | 9.9 | 13.8 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 1260 |
Martin Truex Jr | 20 | 11.4 | 12.6 | 17.2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 638 |
Kyle Larson | 17 | 12.9 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 1025 |
Brad Keselowski | 20 | 8.1 | 14.9 | 17.8 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 361 |
Chase Elliott | 9 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 154 |
Denny Hamlin | 20 | 6.8 | 12.1 | 16.1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 316 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 20 | 18.7 | 19.2 | 15.7 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 3 |
Kurt Busch | 20 | 12.5 | 15.4 | 19.4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 229 |
Clint Bowyer | 20 | 19.6 | 16.2 | 12.8 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 17 | 63 |
Kasey Kahne | 20 | 14.6 | 14.3 | 16.9 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 58 |
Aric Almirola | 19 | 22.2 | 20.7 | 19.2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 0 |
Ryan Newman | 20 | 13.3 | 14.6 | 15.1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 17 |
Fast | Top 15 | Laps | Avg. | High | Low | Pos | Laps Led | Rating | |
Driver | Laps | Rate | Comp. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts./Race | Range |
Jimmie Johnson | 702 | 75% | 8911 | 103.7 | 148.3 | 50.2 | 84.8 | 11.40 | 98.1 |
Kyle Busch | 635 | 76% | 7594 | 104.3 | 133.2 | 66.6 | 37.6 | 16.32 | 66.6 |
Joey Logano | 244 | 73% | 8949 | 96.3 | 137.8 | 41.6 | 56.3 | 4.76 | 96.2 |
Kevin Harvick | 893 | 82% | 8828 | 106.9 | 149.7 | 54.1 | 49.7 | 15.75 | 95.6 |
Martin Truex Jr | 514 | 63% | 8755 | 95.3 | 143.2 | 36.4 | 37.1 | 7.98 | 106.8 |
Kyle Larson | 548 | 74% | 7532 | 101.5 | 141.9 | 58.7 | 50.1 | 15.07 | 83.2 |
Brad Keselowski | 319 | 64% | 8474 | 86.2 | 130 | 38.6 | 54.1 | 4.51 | 91.4 |
Chase Elliott | 149 | 77% | 4078 | 94.8 | 129.8 | 37.3 | 76.8 | 4.28 | 92.5 |
Denny Hamlin | 246 | 73% | 8612 | 92.3 | 120.2 | 48.5 | 49.8 | 0.00 | 71.7 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 154 | 37% | 8368 | 74.1 | 98.9 | 37.6 | 61.7 | 0.04 | 61.3 |
Kurt Busch | 266 | 60% | 8500 | 84.3 | 113.1 | 49.7 | 49.7 | 2.86 | 63.4 |
Clint Bowyer | 155 | 53% | 8971 | 80.7 | 108.5 | 35.8 | 68.6 | 0.79 | 72.7 |
Kasey Kahne | 279 | 64% | 8691 | 83.5 | 108.2 | 52.3 | 64.4 | 0.73 | 55.9 |
Aric Almirola | 87 | 29% | 8045 | 69 | 101.9 | 43.1 | 82.7 | 0.00 | 58.8 |
Ryan Newman | 101 | 58% | 8884 | 81.5 | 106.7 | 64.4 | 44.2 | 0.21 | 42.3 |
*Laps Comp. is out of 9,025 laps run at the last 10 Dover races and the last 10 Bristol races combined.
Momentum (last five races of 2018)
This will update each week with the most recent race making the fifth race. Therefore it will be a rolling total of just how hot a driver has been over that stretch.
Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Pos | Avg. | |||
Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Diff. | Rating |
Kyle Busch | 5 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 8.8 | 121.3 |
Joey Logano | 5 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1.2 | 111.8 |
Clint Bowyer | 5 | 10 | 11 | 11.6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -1.6 | 96.7 |
Kevin Harvick | 5 | 12 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7.4 | 108 |
Chase Elliott | 5 | 12.8 | 15.6 | 10.8 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 79.8 |
Ryan Blaney | 5 | 10 | 8.8 | 16.6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6.6 | 93.6 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 5 | 13.2 | 18.2 | 18.8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -5.6 | 71 |
Alex Bowman | 5 | 12.4 | 18 | 13.2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -0.8 | 77.8 |
Kurt Busch | 5 | 4.4 | 10 | 10.6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6.2 | 100.4 |
Jimmie Johnson | 5 | 15.4 | 14.8 | 14.2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1.2 | 88.1 |
Kyle Larson | 5 | 10 | 16.6 | 20.2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -10.2 | 85.8 |
Denny Hamlin | 5 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 15.4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6.6 | 96.7 |
Martin Truex Jr | 5 | 7.4 | 19.2 | 22.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -14.8 | 75.8 |
Erik Jones | 5 | 12 | 18.4 | 19.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7.8 | 71.6 |
Jamie McMurray | 5 | 23.2 | 18.8 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4.2 | 68.7 |
Points Changes at Dover
The 2017 race points are the points scored in this specific race a year ago. The season DK points average is what the driver is averaging for the races thus far in 2018. It's a good way to see how much over or right on the average that driver did at this track a year prior. Clearly, each race is different, but it's a way to gauge who fits what lineup format better. The drivers closer to their average might be better for cash whereas those to the more extreme ends of the table could fit GPPs better with a boom-or-bust type showing. The Avg. +/- number means that the whole field in general has either done better or worse than their season averages by that number.
17 Race | Season | DK Pts +/- | |
Driver | Total | Avg DK Pts. | Season AVG |
Kyle Larson | 144.25 | 37.4 | 106.9 |
Martin Truex Jr | 91.50 | 39.29 | 52.2 |
Jimmie Johnson | 79.25 | 29.71 | 49.5 |
Chase Elliott | 54.00 | 34.02 | 20.0 |
Jamie McMurray | 50.50 | 24.52 | 26.0 |
Kevin Harvick | 50.50 | 63.9 | -13.4 |
Ryan Newman | 49.75 | 31.42 | 18.3 |
Ty Dillon | 46.25 | 24.36 | 21.9 |
Denny Hamlin | 41.00 | 43.33 | -2.3 |
Ross Chastain | 40.00 | 20.44 | 19.6 |
Kyle Busch | 39.75 | 69.46 | -29.7 |
Daniel Suarez | 35.50 | 26.36 | 9.1 |
Michael McDowell | 35.00 | 20.58 | 14.4 |
Kasey Kahne | 34.00 | 23.5 | 10.5 |
AJ Allmendinger | 32.00 | 27.02 | 5.0 |
Austin Dillon | 29.50 | 29.83 | -0.3 |
Gray Gaulding | 28.00 | 16.89 | 11.1 |
Erik Jones | 27.00 | 26.65 | 0.4 |
Chris Buescher | 27.00 | 28.18 | -1.2 |
Joey Logano | 20.00 | 47.29 | -27.3 |
Trevor Bayne | 19.50 | 18.77 | 0.7 |
David Ragan | 17.00 | 24.68 | -7.7 |
Cody Ware | 12.00 | 0 | 12.0 |
Matt DiBenedetto | 11.00 | 25.32 | -14.3 |
Clint Bowyer | 5.50 | 48.64 | -43.1 |
Paul Menard | 1.00 | 23.16 | -22.2 |
Ryan Blaney | 0.00 | 46.73 | -46.7 |
Landon Cassill | -1.00 | 22.75 | -23.8 |
Kurt Busch | -18.50 | 36.6 | -55.1 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | -19.75 | 25.44 | -45.2 |
Brad Keselowski | -23.50 | 36.88 | -60.4 |
AVG +/- | 24.8 |
Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers
DraftKings
Rank | Driver | Value | Rank | Driver | Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kyle Busch | 5.99 | 37 | Cody Ware | 0.00 |
2 | Kevin Harvick | 5.81 | 36 | Reed Sorenson | 2.02 |
3 | Clint Bowyer | 5.53 | 35 | Corey Lajoie | 2.90 |
4 | Ryan Blaney | 5.25 | 34 | Trevor Bayne | 3.13 |
5 | Chris Buescher | 5.03 | 33 | Erik Jones | 3.25 |
6 | Joey Logano | 4.98 | 32 | Jimmie Johnson | 3.30 |
7 | Matt DiBenedetto | 4.87 | 31 | Jamie McMurray | 3.31 |
8 | Aric Almirola | 4.82 | 30 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 3.35 |
9 | David Ragan | 4.66 | 29 | Paul Menard | 3.41 |
10 | Alex Bowman | 4.50 | 28 | Brad Keselowski | 3.55 |
FanDuel
Rank | Driver | Value | Rank | Driver | Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Landon Cassill | 10.06 | 37 | Jimmie Johnson | 4.01 |
2 | Matt DiBenedetto | 9.20 | 36 | Kyle Larson | 4.48 |
3 | Cole Custer | 8.98 | 35 | Martin Truex Jr. | 4.61 |
4 | Ross Chastain | 8.56 | 34 | Brad Keselowski | 4.64 |
5 | David Ragan | 8.45 | 33 | Chase Elliott | 4.68 |
6 | Gray Gaulding | 7.99 | 32 | Corey LaJoie | 4.80 |
7 | Ty Dillon | 7.55 | 31 | Erik Jones | 5.08 |
8 | AJ Allmendinger | 7.30 | 30 | Reed Sorenson | 5.16 |
9 | Trevor Bayne | 7.21 | 29 | Ryan Blaney | 5.36 |
10 | Chris Buescher | 7.13 | 28 | Kurt Busch | 5.39 |
Drivers To Watch This Week:
Martin Truex Jr.: Truex has been stellar at Dover since the start of 2016 with a win, three top-fives, four top-10s and 387 laps led, in addition to 224 fastest laps. His 99% top-15 rate is almost unheard of and he has completed every one of the 1,606 laps in that span. His 4.3 average finish is second-best in the field after starting 3.0 in the last four. His seven top-10s in the last 10 races are tied for best in the field and add to the cash value Truex has this week at $10,800 on DK and $11,800 on FD as the fourth and fifth-most expensive driver respectively.
Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has been coming around recently with four top-15s in the last five races this season including a top-five and two top-10s. For Dover specifically, he has a win, two top-fives, and three top-10s in the last four races with 106 laps led. The 48-car has been on track for all but 14 laps in the last four races but he really shines in the 10-race picture. Four wins, six top-fives, seven top-10s and 787 laps led in that span state his bona fides here. There is a big difference in price on the two sites with Johnson being $9,000 on DK and $12,300 on FD. The mid-tier range works for a cash game play as does the elite level on FD but you will need more budget plays to fit him and Truex on FD.
Chase Elliott: Chase has the best position differential in the field this week with a +9.2 mark in the last four races. Aside from that he also has the best average finish at 3.3 in that span with four top-fives and 138 laps. Everyone should remember how close he came to winning here last fall before he couldn’t pass Ryan Newmanand Kyle Buschcaught him with a few laps to go. He like JJ is also finding his stride with three top-10s in the last five races this season. His salaries ($9,300 DK, $11,500 on FD) make him workable across the board.
Kyle Larson: The story for Larson here is like many tracks on the schedule, he leads a lot of laps but doesn’t win. He has 463 laps out front here (best in the field) and 167 fastest laps (second in the field) and has three top-fives in the last four races here. Larson has also run all but six laps since 2016. Over last 10 (he’s run in eight) he’s posted four top-fives, six top-10s and the same 463 laps led and his 7.9 average finish is the best in that time frame. The 42-car is priced as an elite driver this week at $10,200 on DraftKings and $12,000 even on FanDuel.
Daniel Suarez: It’s the first time making this section for Suarez this season but it’s not by chance. He’s scored two top-10 finishes here in the last two races (his only MENCS experience at the track) and run in the top-15 93%. Along with completing all 806 laps in those trips he has a very good 92.7 average driver rating. On both sites, he is squarely in the mid-tier salary range at $7,100 on DK and $8,300 on FD and will work for either format, though more GPP leaning than cash.