It’s hard to believe, but there’s just a little over a week of regular season baseball left. You started prepping and took part in a bunch of mock drafts way back in the winter, and your season long fantasy season all comes down to what your roster can do for you in the next several days. We’ve got a few hitters and pitchers who can still help your season long fantasy team this late in the season but first… 

Let’s review some of what we’ve witnessed from a hitting perspective this season. There have been 6383 home runs hit thus far this season. As we mentioned last week, the previous record for total home runs hit in a single season was 6105 in 2017. This number will grow, but 48 players have hit at least 30 home runs this season. In 2018 there were only 26 players that reached that plateau.

 

 

The total number of stolen bases will fall rather significantly for a fourth straight season. In 2018 22 players stole at least 20 bases. As of Thursday morning just 13 players had stolen 21 or more stolen bases. The drop in stolen bases makes sense. With more and more teams relying on the long ball to drive in a majority of their runs, they’re going to want their sluggers coming up to the plate with as many men on base as possible. Why take the chance of having a potential run scorer getting thrown out while trying to advance one base when with one swing of a bat he could advance all of them

Draft Trends

How will the proliferation of home runs affect fantasy baseball drafts next season? Luckily, Justin Mason has set up a series of “2 Early Mock Drafts” which we’ve referred to in past columns that can help us get a sense of how fantasy baseball drafts might play out next season. 

Let’s examine the first four rounds of a typical 12 team fantasy baseball draft using results from the “2 Early” mocks in comparison to 2019 NFBC preseason results. Within those first four rounds 14 pitchers were selected in the mock draft and 13 pitchers were selected in the NFBC drafts. We do find that in the third round there was a mini run on pitchers in NFBC drafts. Five were selected as compared to three in the “2 Early” mocks. The opposite happened in the fourth round. Six pitchers were taken in the “2 Early” mocks as opposed to three in the NFBC preseason drafts. The “2 Early” drafters generally took the same amount of starting pitchers through the first four rounds, but they waited until that fourth round to really focus on drafting the position. That trend becomes a bit more pronounced when we analyze the results of the next four rounds or does it? 

Between rounds five and eight, 22 pitchers were taken off the board in NFBC preseason drafts, eight of which were closers. In the “2 Early mocks (which are still being drafted) we’ve seen 14 pitchers taken between rounds five and eight, with only one being a closer. Due to the fact that many participants in NFBC drafts are high stakes players, we compared NFBC preseason results with those of Fantasy Pros’ preseason consensus ADPs. NFBC and Fantasy Pros results were very similar with a relatively high number of closers (7) being taken between the fifth and eight rounds. 

In summary, the results of our admittedly unscientific analysis shows that the overall number of starting pitchers taken within the first four rounds of a typical 12 team draft were consistent with 2019 preseason draft results. However, the majority of the participants in the “2 Early” mocks went on a mini starting pitching run in the fourth round, with six starters coming off the board. If these “2 Early” mocks are any indication, it seems that drafters will hold off on taking their first closer. Based on the “2 Early” mock results you should still be able to land an elite closer between the 10th and 11th rounds. 

Player Trends

Lastly let’s take a deep dive and try to find a few players who are streaking and could help you either win that fantasy championship, or at least help you finish in the money in your season long league. These guys aren’t household names, but they can help you just the same.

Mariners second baseman/outfielder Shed Long has been swinging a hot bat of late, batting .393 with two home runs in his last six games. We’re looking at a small sample size, but DFS players should note that Long is batting .409 against left-handed pitching.

Reds outfielder Phil Ervin is another hitter who loves batting against lefty pitching. He’s batting .358 with a .654 slugging percentage against south paws.

Some of you may be just a few fraction points away from moving up in the standings in the batting average category. Angels second baseman David Fletcher may be a one trick pony but he’s probably eligible at second base, shortstop, third base and in the outfield and he has a .354 batting average over his last 16 games. Harold Castro is another all-purpose multi-position player for the Tigers who can help you in the batting average category. He’s batting .459 over his last nine games. Tigers outfielder Victor Reyes is batting .349 and has stolen four bases over his last 19 games. 

If you need a little late season power boost, Blue Jays outfielder Randal Grichuk may be available on your league’s waiver wire. He’s hit six home runs and batted .261 over his last 11 games. Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner has been going yard of late, smacking five home runs and batting .283 in his last 11 games.

As for pitchers who could squeeze out one or two last quality starts before the end of the season, how about Padres starter Dinelson Lamet? He has a 2.86 ERA in his last four starts and he struck out 14 Brewers his last time out. A’s starter Homer Bailey has pitched to a 1.88 ERA in his last seven starts, holding batters to a .201 batting average and striking out 45 in 43 innings pitched. Royals starter Danny Duffy is back!! He’s pitching to a 1.78 ERA with a .170 BAA in his last four starts. 

All stats are accurate as of Thursday morning 9.19.2019.