DFS NASCAR: STP 500 Playbook
Dan Malin fills in for Matt Selz poring over all of the stats, speeds, and qualifying spots to find the best DFS NASCAR plays for the STP 500 at Martinsville Speedway.
Sunday afternoon's STD 500 race comes to you from Martinsville Speedway in Martinsville, Virginia. It is a small, and narrow, half-mile track appropriately nicknamed "the paperclip." We can expect a fair amount of cautions and 500 laps so on DraftKings you'll want some guys capable of handling a heavy load of laps led.
Joey Logano took the pole in qualifying so that does impact position differential in a negative way, but getting exposure is still just fine because there are a ton of laps he could lead along with fastest lap points on DraftKings.
Martinsville Speedway Props
- The average number of lead changes at Martinsville has been 13.7 in the past six races. O/U 13.5 lead changes on Sunday? Ahh yes, the lead change prop. I’m going to take the over for this one. Passing will be tough because the track is more narrow than most. Sure, there are 500 laps to go around, but with all the cautions that could occur as well as the pit stops I’ll take the over on lead changes this Sunday, not to mention Kyle Busch will likely find his way to the front of the pack on more than one occasion.
- The past three winners at Martinsville have not started inside the top five. Does this trend continue? So the drivers starting inside the Top Five are Joey Logano, Aric Almirola, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, and Denny Hamlin. Logano won this race last Fall and Hamlin’s won five times at Martinsville. I actually do think a winner will emerge from this group so I’ll say No the trend doesn’t continue. Sadly it looks like I’ll be rooting against Kyle Busch this Sunday.
- Which JTG Daugherty Racing driver will have the higher finishing position? Chris Buescher or Ryan Preece? Buescher is starting 13th and Preece is starting 16th. It really comes down to which of these guys avoids getting wrecked as they had nearly similar practice rounds. I’m going to take Chris Buescher for this one since he has four straight Top 20’s compared to Preece who has none since Daytona.
- O/U 11.5 drivers score stage points on Sunday? I suggest taking the Over here. The floor is obviously ten and only two other drivers have to sneak into the Top 10 at the end of Stage 2. Last year for the Spring race the same ten drivers finished with stage points. We’ll hope a few more drivers sneak in there this time around!
- Will Kyle Busch win his third race in a row on Sunday? I’m going to say No and take the field as much as it pains me to say that. I’ve already said I think someone starting in the Top 5 will win it because there are some big names in that group. Even if neither of those five win there’s a good chance the field could still take it.
- O/U 4.5 Ford drivers finish in the top 10 at Martinsville. I’ll take the Over and hope this works out. Harvick, Keselowski, Logano, and Bowyer have solid odds. All you really need is one of Ryan Blaney or Aric Almirola to sneak in the Top 10 and you’re gold.
- Which Hendrick Motorsports driver will have the higher finishing position? Chase Elliott or Jimmie Johnson? I know JJ has the better history at this track with a ton of wins, but I’m going to take Chase Elliott. Elliott looked really good in practice and qualified eighth for Sunday’s race. Johnson could make some noise as he’s very successful at this track, but he just hasn’t looked like the same driver come Sunday this year. My money’s on Elliott.
- O/U 2.5 drivers with at least 100 laps led in Sunday’s race? I’m going to take the Under because I’m hoping for more than 13.5 lead changes. Now I think two drivers leading 100 laps is feasible based on the history of this track. But I’ll keep expectations in check and take the under. I don’t see three or more drivers each leading 100 laps in this 500-lap race.
- Which team will have the higher finishing driver? Joe Gibbs Racing or Team Penske? This is really difficult. In one corner you’ve got JGR stacked with Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., and Erik Jones. In the other with Penske you’ve got Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and Ryan Blaney. I do think Blaney’s a bit of a dark horse, but I’m hoping Truex gets his revenge on Joey Logano for last Fall’s bump and run at this track. I’ll take Joe Gibbs Racing with this prop, but will need Hamlin to win for Props 3 and 5 to also be correct as well.
- Brad Keselowski has an average finish of 5.0 the last four races at Martinsville. Will he finish inside the Top 5 on Sunday? Not only has he been great at Martinsville, but he has three Top 3 finishes in his last four races. If Kyle Busch is the hottest driver right now, Keselowski is right behind. I’ll say Yes he finishes Top 5 and hopefully he can avoid getting wrecked on Sunday.