Mock Draft Army: September 5
Andy Spiteri breaks down the fourth week of NFL Mock Draft Army action.
With a week to go before the start of the NFL season, draft season is at full throttle. The Mock Draft Army made its final appearance on Wednesday ending a long run that began on February 10th with the first baseball mock. Now 60 baseball and 28 football mocks later, the 2020 mock season comes to a close. The person who is happiest about that is the Mrs. who gets a standing O for her patience. Most of you know about my health situation, and I thank her for allowing me to spend so much time with all of you.
We’ve gone over many draft strategies over the last 6 weeks trying to understand what works and what will cause you to do the walk of shame before your 2021 draft. Clearly the theme of 2020 is taking running backs early. Going off the rails on this strategy has people saying like Koalas did tonight “I always hate my team when I take a TE early”. The evaluator backed that up by placing him 9th.
The news of Leonard Fournette signing with the Bucs came AFTER he was picked in the 6th round by MDA regular Sin City Heat. Where is Fournette going to be drafted over the next week? Twitter is buzzing with speculation and polls about his fate. I would bet on a 4th to 5th round fallout for him. In the NFFC, his ADP is RB17/31.63 ahead of Jonathan Taylor, Le’Veon Bell, Chris Carson , and James Conner . With the move to Tampa, I’d expect him to drop behind all but Bell, putting him in the late 3rd/early 4th round.
Looking back to our first mock on July 27th, which included Howard Bender and Sean Mitchell of Fantasy Alarm and Jim Coventry of Rotowire, we see that some things changed….and some didn’t. McCaffrey, Barkley and Elliot were the first three picks in seemingly every mock of the year. Michael Thomas was taken 4th in that first one and 9th in our latest as the luster of the running back shines brightly heading into serious draft season. Three WRs were taken in round 1 compared to just one on Wednesday. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the most obvious riser going from round 3 to 5th overall. Devante Adams takes a fall from pick 9 to 22 despite his NFFC ADP staying around 10 the entire time. Lamar Jackson and Pat Mahomes were both taken about a round later this week compared to the first mock. The evolution of draft season. It’s the main reason mocking helps. Everyone learns and picks are adjusted.
I mention this often when writing about ADP. Know what dates cover the ADP data you are using. The ADP from the last week or two can look vastly different from an ADP derived from all drafts run by a website because these can go back to as early as February. Edwards-Helaire’s ADP this last week is 6.25, but looking at it starting back in February, you’d see it as 19.95.
Before I go over the ADP risers and fallers I’d like to thank Howard for trusting me with his baby, the MDA. I’d also like to thank the regulars who never fail to participate and offer their opinions in the chat room: The Kangasman, Scott, Jeremy, Justin, Chance, Rob, Al, Jeffrey, and many others. From Fantasy Alarm the two who have both participated and helped me out being Ivar Anderson and Dan Malin. I cannot name everyone, but I thank you all for helping me and everyone who participated in getting ready to DOMINATE their drafts! #FANation #FAmily
With the release of Leonard Fournette , the trio of Ryquell Armstead , Chris Thompson , and Devin Ozigbo have all seen their ADP rise rapidly. The speculation is of a committee, but Armstead holds the lead. Armstead this week has gone to 104.5 from 186 with the earliest being 52nd, Thompson 136.4 from 211, and Ozigbo 296 to 200. Some will stay away as this puts this backfield into Patriots territory, but those who have drafted them earlier in drafts are set to reap the benefits.
Zack Moss RB Buffalo
When Moss was drafted he was expected to spell Devin Singletary and possibly be the goal-line back. With reports of Singletary getting a case of “fumbleitis”, Moss has made a major move in ADP. His overall ADP since February is 113, but over the last week, it has jumped to 83. So if you were expecting to get him in the 10th round, you have to do it in the 7th now. If he does take over for Singletary, he will be a strong RB3/4, but if he doesn’t, you’re overpaying at this price.
Joshua Kelley RB LA Chargers
Kelley was a 4th round pick in the 2020 draft out of UCLA and was expected to compete with Justin Jackson to back up Austin Ekeler . Reports out of Chargers camp has Kelley practicing with the first team on goal-line drills. He has seemingly not only beaten out Jackson but may even steal some touches from Ekeler. His ADP has gone to 162 over the last week and is now being drafted ahead of Jackson. As a 14th round selection, Kelley can add depth to your RB position and be a viable bye week/injury fill-in.
Preston Williams WR Miami
Williams missed a significant amount of the season last year after tearing his ACL. Recovered, he has been impressing those watching in Miami. Fantasy footballers are noticing and have moved him up almost two rounds in the last week. In the NFFC he has gone as early as 86th with an ADP of 121. He could potentially outproduce DeVante Parker who is being drafted 5 rounds earlier.
Carson Wentz QB Philadelphia
Last week I reported that all of the top 10 QBs were falling in ADP. Wentz continues to tumble as his offensive line took another hit losing LT Andre Dillard and WR Jalen Reagor is expected to miss the first 3-4 weeks with a shoulder injury. From 8/20-27 Wentz’s ADP was 96.9 and it has fallen to 107.7 over the last week. The Eagles and Wentz overcame a ton of injuries last season to their WR corps and, at times, their OL. This could be a buying opportunity in Philadelphia.
DeAndre Swift RB Detroit
Swift is the heralded rookie for the Lions out of Georgia. He is expected to compete with Kerryon Johnson for the RB1 role but an injury has sidelined him for almost two weeks. This has led to his fall down the draft board. It’s been difficult for rookies this season with the lack of OTAs and preseason games, but to also miss two weeks of training camp, may cause Swift to fall back a bit in the rotation. He’s fallen back by almost a round going from 52 to 61.
Mike Williams WR LA Chargers
Williams has the talent to be a premier WR in the NFL but has not produced on a consistent basis. Now with an injury expecting to sideline him for at least week one, he is someone that is being targeted as a late-round depth pick. With Philip Rivers off to Indianapolis and TyRod Taylor taking over who will never be confused with a strong-armed QB, Williams’ value has dropped. He has dropped 10 spots over the last week as compared to the full drafting season going from 125 to 135. Justin Jefferson and Golden Tate are two WRs who are in the same ADP range and may be more worthy of your pick at that point in the draft.