We went 5-1 on Thursday, and that puts our picks at 12-6 on the season and 11-3 on player props. Friday's 12-game slate runs from a 4 p.m. ET tip in Milwaukee to three late games out West, and our NBA best bets include three sides and a full slate of player props.
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 10/23
Our NBA best bets for Friday are the Bucks -1.5 against Chicago, the Pelicans -1.5 in Utah, and the Lakers -9.5 against the Clippers. On the prop side, we're featuring Anthony Davis Over 21.5 points, Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 three-pointers, and Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 assists.
Lines are from DraftKings, and early-season numbers move quickly with injury news. Shop around before you bet, and get our full breakdown of each pick below.
Bulls vs. Bucks Prediction: Friday, 10/23
Pick: Bucks -1.5
Milwaukee lost its opener 128-116 in Washington, but the score hides how well the Bucks played for most of the night. They led for much of the game before the Wizards pulled away early in the fourth behind 34 points from Anthony Davis. Tyler Herro scored 24 with nine assists, and Jaime Jaquez. added 22.
Chicago's opener was far worse. The Bulls were blown out 135-92 in Toronto, and nothing about that performance suggests they're ready to win on the road against a team playing its home opener.
The Bucks are 1.5-point favorites with a 240.5 total, tied for the highest on the board. Milwaukee showed in Washington that its offense can score in bunches, and we only need the Bucks to win by two. Bucks -1.5 is our first of Friday's NBA best bets.
Pelicans vs. Jazz Prediction: Friday, 10/23
Pick: Pelicans -1.5
New Orleans should have won its opener. The Pelicans led Indiana 101-93 in the fourth quarter before Tyrese Haliburton took over, and they lost 123-120. Dejounte Murray scored 23 points, Zion Williamson added 22, and Yves Missi controlled the glass with 14 rebounds.
Utah's opener went the other way. We backed the Jazz at Memphis on Wednesday, and they were run off the floor as Ty Jerome scored a career-high 45 points. The Jazz have talent, but their defense has a lot to prove after that performance.
The Pelicans are 1.5-point road favorites with a 239.5 total in Utah's home opener. Home crowds can make early-season games tricky, but New Orleans was the better team for three quarters against a playoff-caliber Indiana roster. Pelicans -1.5 is our pick.
Clippers vs. Lakers Prediction: Friday, 10/23
Pick: Lakers -9.5
The Lakers looked dominant in their opener, beating Golden State 127-105. Luka Doncic scored 28 points in three quarters, Austin Reaves added 23, and Walker Kessler went a perfect 12-for-12 for 26 points and nine rebounds in his Lakers debut.
The Clippers also won big, routing Sacramento 121-96 behind 30 points from Darius Garland, so this is a real test. But the size matchup favors the Lakers. Kessler was a force at both rims Wednesday, and the Clippers were the second-worst rebounding team in the NBA last season before trading Ivica Zubac to Indiana.
This is the biggest number we're laying on the card, but the Lakers covered as heavy favorites Wednesday with Doncic sitting the entire fourth quarter. With a 225.5 total, a slower game favors the team with the best player and the biggest center. Lakers -9.5 rounds out the sides among our NBA best bets.
Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 10/23
Anthony Davis Over 21.5 Points
Davis was everything Washington hoped for in his debut, scoring 34 points with 12 rebounds on 11-of-20 shooting. He also got to the line 14 times and made 11, which gives him a scoring floor most big men don't have.
Toronto brings a physical frontcourt with Jakob Poeltl and Scottie Barnes, but Trae Young made it clear after the opener that the offense is built to run through Davis. With the Wizards as 8.5-point underdogs, they'll need Davis to carry the scoring load at home, and this line sits well below his opening-night total.
Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 Three-Pointers
Robinson hit five threes and scored 15 fourth-quarter points to lead Detroit's comeback against Boston. He made 2.9 threes per game last season at a 41.0% clip and shot even better in the playoffs.
Detroit is a 1.5-point favorite in Miami with a 235.5 total, and the Heat's perimeter defense struggled in their opener, allowing 14 three-pointers to Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball alone. A close game means Robinson is on the floor in crunch time, which is exactly when the Pistons lean on his shooting.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 Assists
Haliburton picked up right where he left off in his return from the Achilles tear, finishing with 23 points and 12 assists in Indiana's win at New Orleans. The volume was real, too. He generated 20 potential assists, so the 12 dimes weren't the product of a hot shooting night from his teammates.
He led the league with 10.9 assists in 2023-24 and averaged 9.2 in 2024-25, so this line sits right in his normal range. The Pacers host Dallas as 7.5-point favorites with a 240.5 total, tied for the highest on Friday's board, and a fast game means plenty of early assist chances even if Indiana pulls away late.
More player props we like on Friday's slate:
- Trae Young Over 9.5 Assists: Young dished 13 assists with one turnover and 18 potential assists in the opener, and Washington's offense runs through his pick-and-roll with Anthony Davis.
- Yves Missi Over 8.5 Rebounds: Missi grabbed 14 rebounds on 26 rebound chances in 30 minutes against Indiana, and New Orleans visits a Utah team coming off a lopsided loss in a game with a 239.5 total.
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Then check back with Fantasy Alarm every day for new NBA best bets, picks, and predictions all season long.