Nobody likes when their early round pick busts out and ruins their season. Navigating the early round waters and avoiding those players who have injury concerns, skill limitations or who simply do not fit their team’s system is a skill few have mastered in fantasy football.

You see the problem is that everybody wants to be the hero. We all want to have the perfect draft in which we hit on the absolute best players at each position in each and every round. But as we all know or at least should know, that is never going to happen.

Instead, we should be starting out our drafts with the least amount of risk possible and thus building our teams on the steadiest ground we can. The only way to do this though is to always look at what could go wrong with each player instead of just falling in love with all that could go right.

It’s difficult to find faults in players that we really like or that have brought us fantasy success in the past. But unfortunately and as you are about to read, the time comes for each and every player. Those of us who have played this game long enough remember the likes of Joe Montana, LaDanian Tomlinson, Jerry Rice, Randy Moss and Shannon Sharpe all falling off in terms of production. Other players switch teams and are no longer a fit for their offense or lose chemistry with their QB or WR.

If you can avoid the minefields that are the early rounds of your fantasy football league draft, then you are halfway to the title. Let’s take look at some of the players that I have identified as being too risky to draft here in 2016.

Here are my 2016 Fantasy Football Busts:

QUARTERBACKS

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

I’ve had him on the bust list three times and it seems as though each time I do he has a better fantasy season than the one before. But I simply cannot ignore the fact that Wilson put up what will likely be career numbers across the board last year.

The Seahawks were desperate and thus wound up throwing the ball more than they have since the days of Dave Krieg. Ideally this offense controls the ball on the ground with their running game and only throws when necessary. I do not believe that the success Wilson had last year as a pocket passer will trick his coaching staff into believing he is capable of repeating that ever again.

Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills

Listen, Taylor was a great story in 2015 and I was very happy for the kid to do so much with his first opportunity to start. But there are so many shortcomings here that you would have to be blind or a complete fool to think that Taylor can excel as a starting NFL QB.

He is too small, has a funky throwing motion that leads to wild inaccuracies and is not in a pass friendly system in Buffalo. Other than Sammy Watkins there is also a significant lack or receiving options on the Bills roster for Taylor to take advantage of. If you want Taylor as a backup in a deep league I can be fine with that. But there are so many other QB’s that have starting fantasy potential and who come from greater skill sets than our friend Tyrod.

RUNNING BACKS

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

This is where the term “bust” feels downright icky. Do I think that Adrian Peterson can rush for 1500 yards with the Vikings against this season? Sure. Do I think that he should be considered a shoe in for 1000 yards rushing in 2016? Fine. But do I also think that one of the most violent runners in NFL history, who doesn’t catch any passes and averaged barely 3.5 yards per carry at the end of last season deserves to be a first round pick coming into his age 31 season? No way.

Calling Peterson a bust is tough because he has the longest leash of just about anyone in the NFL. But we cannot ignore the data that we have on RB’s that suggest they fall off dramatically after 2000 carries (Peterson reached in 2014), hit the wall when they turn 30 (Peterson did so in 2014) and lose significant production after 350+ carries the year before (which Peterson did in 2015).

Remember that the RB wall closes fast and that very rarely are we ever shown warning signs before it is too late. Do your research and it will clearly tell you to be cautious when taking Adrian Peterson as your top pick this year.

Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders

We were all severely let down by Murray’s performance last season. I seriously cannot remember another RB this big and strong who falls quite as easily as Murray seems to do.  You would think that he would be a dominating force at least in short yardage situations but he absolutely stunk in 2015.

I don’t have much hope for Murray as we approach the 2016 season. To me he is the type of guy who will be available real late and could be a terrible burden for those who go with the zero RB strategy. If you wind up drafting Latavius Murray as your RB1, your season is over no matter how well your WR’s hit.

Jeremy Langford, Chicago Bears

Remember that I like Jordan Howard a little bit here in Chicago and that was mostly because my not liking Jeremy Langford. Langford just doesn’t possess any substantial skills that endear himself to the coaching staff or keep him on the field. He showed up well when replacing Matt Forte last season but then completely sunk once he was thrown into spot start duty.

If you avoid RB’s early on and decide you want to grab both of the Bears RB to ensure that you have the starter I can get on board with that. But as a standalone fantasy selection you could do far better than Jeremy Langford in 2016.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks

I am willing to go down with the ship if the Wilson/Baldwin combo goes off again in 2016. But as I stated with Russell Wilson earlier, the volume in Seattle just isn’t enough to sustain a full time fantasy starter and definitely not a WR1 or WR2 in fantasy.

Baldwin had a magical season last year and we all know that. But don’t forget that this was a guy who averaged just 49 receptions and 689 yards over his first four years in the league. Then all of a sudden this 5’10” WR is on the same level as Larry Fitzgerald, Keenan Allen and Randall Cobb? I say no way.

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts

As much as I like Andrew Luck and the Colts passing game to rebound this season, I just don’t get the love for T.Y. Hilton. He has proven himself to be one of the most inconsistent players in fantasy football and that just destroys your team.

It isn’t that I don’t believe Hilton is capable of posting some good totals at the end of the season. He can do that because he has such great big play ability. Last season in which he posted his second highest yardage total of his career he still had six games of under 50 yards. I get calls every year during Hilton’s drought asking whether they should start him or some other random WR like Andrew Hawkins just because folks get so tired of him.

Steve Smith, Baltimore Ravens

This guy should have just retired like he said that he was going to last year. Smith is 37 years old and stands at just 5’9” tall. If you notice, all of my WR busts are under 6’ tall. But Smith’s only real skill these days is the ability to engage in contact with opposing CB’s and draw pass interference penalties from them occasionally. He literally serves no other purpose whatsoever.

The Ravens have a wealth of other receiving options most of whom are completely healthy and not coming off of a torn Achilles. Smith has stated numerous occasions that his primary goal for returning was to collect his 39 receptions and thus reach the 1,000 reception total for his career. This isn’t something that will turn out well for fantasy.

Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings

What am I supposed to say here? I warned you guys about him last year when he was the hottest thing in fantasy football for that one week but most of you didn’t listen. You simply should not and cannot trust a Minnesota Vikings receiver for fantasy purposes. Diggs is nothing more than a downfield slot receiver who will make some big plays for the Vikings but will also be way to inconsistent to help your fantasy squad.

TIGHT ENDS

Gary Barnidge, Cleveland Browns

The biggest case I hear for Barnidge is, “who else are they going to throw the ball to?” My response to that is a healthy, “who gives shizz?” Barnidge had a career year in 2015 but that was entirely out of necessity. Please don’t be the guy that chases Gary Barnidge’s 79-1043-9 line for last year though because he is never going to reach those totals in a single season again.

Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions

I secretly like Ebron a little bit this year but have heard way too many people talking him up as a TE1 and that is just ludicrous. Now I can see Ebron being worked into the Lions passing game more often this year but I cannot see him becoming this outlet of all the Calvin Johnson targets so many are thinking that he will be. Matt Stafford does not like throwing the ball to the middle of the field and that isn’t going to change anytime soon.