The data in this piece is taken from the NFBC.
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CATCHER
Gary Sanchez at 50.6 overall seems... insane to me. I’ll take Yasmani Grandal at 148.3 or Russell Martin at 167.7 instead. Sanchez just isn’t worth the 100-pick premium. His Player Profile is coming...
I’ve heard from a couple of folks of late that they think Welington Castillo could be a nice late round grab with his power in Baltimore. Sorry folks, but his ADP has him coming off the board 11th at the catcher’s spot right now (181.2). You’re not sneaking him past anybody.
I find it a bit odd that Devin Mesoraco (311) is being take ahead of Austin Hedges (316). Devin has played 39 games the last two years and Hedges has as much offensive upside.
FIRST BASE
I know others are surging, but doesn’t it seem odd that coming off a .316-38-108-92 season that Miguel Cabrera’s ADP is 15.3? Maybe it’s just me. I’ll simply say that if I was picking 15th, and he was there, I’d be a happy fella.
I find it surprising that folks are moving on from Jose Abreu who is coming off the board as the 8th first baseman with a mark of 63.2. I was asked how I could be so high on him Monday on Twitter since his team is so bad? My response? Did you know that Abreu is the only player in baseball to go .290-25-100 each of the last three years? He will still be productive, poor lineup or not.
Chris Carter doesn’t have a team, so the 41 homer, 94 RBI, 84 run batter from last season is coming off at 231 overall, 19th at first base.
SECOND BASE
The most consistent second base performer of the 21st century, Robinson Cano, is being taken 4th at the position (33.8). All the future HOFamer did in 2016 was hit a career best 39 homers with a career best 107 runs. I’ll take him at that spot all day long.
Second base is deep. DJ LeMahieu hit a league best .348 last season with a .416 OBP and 104 runs scored. He’s merely ranked 10th at second base (87.1).
Neil Walker had that back issue last season that limited him to just 113 games (it was surgically repaired). Obviously, back issues are no laughing matter. Still, Walker hit .282 with 23 homers so it’s a bit surprising to see him sitting at 20th at second base, more than 210 selections later than Cano (247.7). .
THIRD BASE
The position is loaded with three men in the top-10 and four in the top-12: Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson. After those four there a lull of more than 50 selections before the next third baseman is going off the board. That man is Kyle Seager at 65.7.
Alex Bregman (94) and Jose Ramirez (97.1) are being taken ahead of Evan Longoria (104.3). I get it. Ramirez runs and qualifies at multiple positions (OF). Bregman is an intriguing young talent that had 34 RBI and a .478 SLG in 49 rookie games. Still, it’s not obvious that selecting both men ahead of Longo is the best course of action. Longo is just 31 and is coming off a .273-36-98-81 season.
Mike Moustakas (200.4) and Nick Castellanos (204.2) are young veterans coming back from injury. If you want to wait on the third base spot, in essence go cheap with it, they aren’t bad plays as the 19th and 20th third sackers being taken.
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SHORTSTOP
Eduardo Nunez (117.1) being taking 7th at the position seems nutso to me. I can’t envision a scenario in which he runs 50 times like he did last season. I’m also not sold that he’s a .288 hitter. The 16 homers? Those aren’t coming again either. His ADP is very aggressive.
Marcus Semien isn’t get much more respect than what he received last year. OK, a little bit more. He’s 15th at the position with a 202.7 ADP. That’s a spot I agree with if I’m being honest. I would say that if you’re waiting at this position you could do a lot worse than Semien who went .238-27-75-72-10 last season.
Freddy Galvis hit 20 homers with 17 steals last season. Honestly, you can look it up. He also hit .241 with a pathetic .274 OBP as he walked just 25 times in 158 games. Doesn’t’ seem like anyone is expecting a repeat effort (23rd at position, 356.1).
OUTFIELD
Kyle Schwarber is coming off the board 20th at the position, 10 selections ahead of Justin Upton. I think that’s wrong. There’s a coming Player Profile on Upton in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide, and I wrote about Schwarber last week in Is Schwarber a Star?
Adam Eaton (132.1) and Andrew Benintendi (136.4) are being drafted back-to-back at the outfield spot. Makes a lot of sense to me to see that since they profile as similar players. Still, no doubt in my mind that taking Eaton is the much smarter move. No question about that. Interestingly, Byron Buxton (147.7), who has a much higher speed quotient with less plate discipline, is also really close to the young duo.
Some outfielders listed outside the top 375-overall that are intriguing options at that point: Roman Quinn 395.1, Aaron Altherr 323.2, Mitch Haniger 423.7, Lewis Brinson 431.8, Lonnie Chisenhall 457.4 and Austin Meadows 514.6 (though he has no place to play in the Pirates outfield with Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco and Andrew McCutchen in house).
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).