Ray’s Ramblings: Projections – How Did We Do?

Published: Dec 30, 2016

Back in February I wrote an article entitled Why Fantasy Baseball Projections Stink. In this article, as the year draws to a close, I will review the players mentioned in that article.

NOTE: I’m not blaming any source on this list for any mistakes they may have made. It’s an inherently flawed process, projecting players, something I noted in PART I of this series. It just ain’t easy to do. The inherent inaccuracy is also why we at Fantasy Alarm are very reluctant to ever give number projections, something that will be discussed in great detail in the Draft Guide article entitled Projections and Category Targets.

HITTERS

Charlie Blackmon	AVG	HR	RBI	RUNS	SB
Baseball HQ	.277	19	55	89	35
Rotoworld	.284	14	59	89	27
ESPN	.286	16	63	90	34
Rotowire	.280	16	55	90	35
Fantasy Baseball Guide	.289	18	65	89	33
*ACTUAL NUMBERS*	*.324*	29	82	*111*	17

Everyone missed everything. No one had the homers or steals right. Everyone was miles off on the runs batted in. At least the runs were close. No one predicted wild excess from Charlie. He just had one hell of a season.

David Peralta	AVG	HR	RBI	RUNS	SB
Baseball HQ	.299	18	80	66	11
Rotoworld	.275	17	78	61	7
ESPN	.290	19	81	70	10
Rotowire	.303	16	78	66	13
Fantasy Baseball Guide	.298	14	66	58	9
*ACTUAL NUMBERS*	*.251*	4	15	23	2

Peralta had his season crushed by injury. Can’t blame anyone for that, but a miss is still the end result.

Yasiel Puig	AVG	HR	RBI	RUNS	SB
Baseball HQ	.276	20	69	69	12
Rotoworld	.287	22	81	83	12
ESPN	.272	23	76	68	11
Rotowire	.287	18	66	73	11
Fantasy Baseball Guide	.292	18	59	75	10
*ACTUAL NUMBERS*	*.263*	11	45	45	5

Swing and a miss.

Anthony Rendon	AVG	HR	RBI	RUNS	SB
Baseball HQ	.271	16	50	73	7
Rotoworld	.295	15	69	80	8
ESPN	.277	19	60	83	9
Rotowire	276	14	61	87	8
Fantasy Baseball Guide	.272	13	55	75	7
*ACTUAL NUMBERS*	*.270*	20	85	94	12

This one was pretty close if you were looking at the Rotoworld and ESPN projections. No one predicted a full rebound to 2014 levels though for Rendon.

Christian Yelich	AVG	HR	RBI	RUNS	SB
Baseball HQ	.294	8	50	76	19
Rotoworld	.296	16	74	86	17
ESPN	.290	10	56	81	20
Rotowire	.293	11	51	82	20
Fantasy Baseball Guide	.289	8	47	79	19
*ACTUAL NUMBERS*	*.298*	21	98	78	9

Injuries limited Yelich to half the steals that every source predicted. That’s a failure. However, rock solid was everyone in batting average and runs scored. Missed, completely, on homers and RBI though. Overall, success or failure? You make the call on that one.

PITCHERS

Johnny Cueto	W	ERA	WHIP	K
Baseball HQ	13	3.10	1.10	173
Rotoworld	15	3.12	1.13	176
ESPN	16	3.16	1.15	197
Rotowire	14	3.10	1.08	181
Fantasy Baseball Guide	13	3.28	1.10	182
*ACTUAL NUMBERS*	18	*2.79*	*1.09*	*198*

I will call these projections a total win, wouldn’t you?

Marco Estrada	W	ERA	WHIP	K
Baseball HQ	10	3.94	1.20	125
Rotoworld	12	4.07	1.17	161
ESPN	12	4.31	1.22	147
Rotowire	10	3.61	1.12	133
Fantasy Baseball Guide	12	3.97	1.12	164
*ACTUAL NUMBERS*	9	*3.48*	*1.12*	*165*

Another win for the predictors.

Marcus Stroman	W	ERA	WHIP	K
Baseball HQ	15	3.12	1.15	151
Rotoworld	15	3.16	1.11	173
ESPN	15	3.42	1.18	178
Rotowire	13	3.38	1.14	143
Fantasy Baseball Guide	11	3.31	1.17	144
*ACTUAL NUMBERS*	9	*4.37*	*1.29*	*166*

At least the strikeouts were right.

Yordano Ventura	W	ERA	WHIP	K
Baseball HQ	15	3.60	1.31	181
Rotoworld	13	3.32	1.23	171
ESPN	12	3.60	1.28	183
Rotowire	14	3.46	1.24	169
Fantasy Baseball Guide	8	3.75	1.32	158
*ACTUAL NUMBERS*	11	*4.45*	*1.44*	*144*

Pretty much a miss.

We all love looking at the projections that come out each season, but they simple cannot be taken as a reliable source of what the future holds.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).

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