FIVE ON THE BUMP

Jhoulys Chacin is now a part of the Angels rotation as Tim Lincecum has been sent to Triple-A. So far this season the following Angels have made starts this season.

Hector Santiago (22)
Matt Shoemaker (22)
Jered Weaver (22)
Nick Tropeano (13)
Jhoulys Chacin (10)
Tim Lincecum (9)
Garrett Richards (6)
Tyler Skaggs (3)
David Huff (2)
Cory Rasmus (1)
Andrew Heaney (1)
Ricky Nolasco (1)

Chacin will be making his 11th start in 19 outings for the Angels Thursday against the Indians in Cleveland. On the year Chacin has a 3-7 record, 5.27 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 7.21 strikeouts per nine and 3.51 BB/9. What in that line leads you to think that Chacin is worthy of anything other than streaming in an AL-only league?

Miguel Gonzalez of the White Sox is 2-6 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with 6.75 strikeouts per nine and 2.93 walks per nine. That’s as boring as it gets, though big league teams, most at least, can always use a 5th starter that pitches at that level. That’s different than wanting to use that player in a mixed league. Why would you even entertain that thought, starting him in a mixed league? Since July 1st he’s won one game in seven starts. More crap. But, there might just be something here. Gonzalez has walked just nine guys leading to a 1.77 walk rate per nine. He’s kept the ball in the yard allowing only four big flies. More than that, he’s been a solid guy at keeping runs off the board as Miguel has a 2.76 ERA and 1.07 WHIP his last seven starts. That’s some serious pitching that I’ve personally been enjoying in AL LABR. He’s not this good, the overall numbers are what his skills really suggest, but his work of late is very heartening.

Danny Duffy had a 3.80 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.15 K/9 and 3.84 BB/9 rate entering this season over 443.1 innings. This season the marks have shot threw through the roof. His ERA is 2.97. His WHIP is 1.02. His K/9 rate is 10.30. His BB/9 rate is 1.95. He’s gone from five years of being Mike Leake to becoming Chris Sale in 2016. Does that track for you? (1) Duffy has a 20.6 percent line drive rate, 33.6 ground ball rate and 45.8 percent ground ball. That’s really no different than his career marks (21.6, 36.3, 42.0). In fact, his 0.73 GB/FB ratio of 0.73 would be a career worst. (2) His HR/FB ratio this season is 10.7 percent. The mark is actually worse than his career rate. (3) His BABIP this season is .282. His career mark is .286. (4) His hard hit ball rate this season is 34.4 percent. That’s the second highest mark of his career and well above his 30.0 percent career mark. (5) His 82.5 percent left on base rate is well above his 76.5 percent career mark, already a strong number. Note that the last three seasons there have only been five efforts with a LOB percentage of 82.5 percent by all pitchers in baseball (minimum 162 innings pitched). Here is the list. : Zack Greinke 86.5 percent last year, John Lackey 82.6 percent last year, Doug Fister at 83.1 percent in 2014, Johnny Cueto at 82.5 percent in 2014 and Yu Darvish at 83.9 percent in 2013. Is Duffy really one of those guys? (6) How does a guy who has struck out less than seven batters an inning the last two years end up at 10.30 per nine this year? (7) Duffy has never bettered the league average, in any season, with his walk rate per nine. His career mark is 3.45. This season he’s at 1.95 per nine. Guys find themselves, and Duffy is a strong talent, but from less than league average to superstar literally overnight… #ImJustSaying

Jon Lester is 32 years old, and each of the last eight years he’s thrown at least 191 frames each effort. He’s a rock of the workload train, and as a result his lowest strikeout total in eight years has been 152 while over the eight seasons he averaged 194 strikeouts a year. He’s on pace to get there again this season with 133 punchouts in 135.1 innings in 2016. He’s been a strikeout an inning guy since the start of the 2014 season by the way. He is saddled with a 2.53 BB/9 rate this campaign, a strong number though it is a 3-year high (1.97 and 2.06 the last two years). His WHIP of 1.09 is nearly identical to the marks the last two years (1.10 and 1.12). Further, his 1.39 GB/FB ratio this year is two hundredths off his career rate. The only outlier here right now is the homer to fly ball rate. For his career the mark is 9.9 percent. The last three years the mark has been in single digits. This year the rate has climbed to 15.1 percent. The number should come down a bit, especially when you consider that his fly ball rate this season is one tenth off his career mark. What a rock.

Michael Pineda just can’t get right. Can’t. I mean, look at his earn runs total in each of his last eight starts: 1, 1, 5, 5, 0, 1, 5, 4. How is that possible? In eight starts Pineda has four games of 0/1 earned runs and four games of at least four earned runs. I just don’t get it, can’t explain it, and want to ignore it. Pretty much thinking you should forget about him too, even though he’s struck out 61 batters over those 48 innings as he continues to deal with the homer (1.50 per nine) while walking too many (3.19 per nine). Nathan Eovaldi hurt his arm Wednesday night and Luis Severino has been demoted to the minors, so the Yankees really need Pineda. Too bad they are likely to be disappointed as we in the fantasy world continue to be.

DFS DIAMONDS

*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.

CATCHER: Gary Sanchez had a homer and four hits last night. In his six games since being recalled he’s produced nine hits, a homer, five runs and four RBI with a 1.025 OPS. He faces the struggling Eduardo Rodriguez.   

FIRST BASE: Jose Abreu has hit two homers with a .986 OPS over 27 plate appearances against Danny Duffy. Over his last eight games he’s hit .412 with a 1.195 OPS and three homers in August.  

SECOND BASE: Brian Dozier hit a homer Wednesday night that was washed out by rain. He has hit six homers his last 11 games. He faces soft tosser Doug Fister.

THIRD BASE: In the month of August Adonis Garcia has a homer, three doubles, six RBI and a .744 OPS. He faces Matt Garza who has allowed six homers in six games and who owns a 5.03 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 10 starts this season.

SHORTSTOP: Francisco Lindor has a hit in 6-straight games and 8-of-9. His August numbers include a .308 batting average, two homers, a steal and a .462 SLG. He owns a .807 OPS this season against righties. He faces Jhoulys Chacin who returns to the rotation having last three five innings on June 14th.   
  
OUTFIELD: In August Jacoby Ellsbury has a .353/.425/.412 slash line with seven runs in nine games. He takes on Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a 5.93 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, with two homers and a .357 average in 14 at-bats.  

OUTFIELD: Let’s play the BvP game. Jarrod Dyson is 8-for-10 against Miguel Gonzalez. He’s also stolen two bases.

OUTFIELD: George Springer has a .272/.378/.544 slash line with seven homers over 114 at-bats against lefties. Meanwhile, Tommy Milone has allowed righties this season to post a .310/.352/.443 slash line.   

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 11 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).