TYLER GLASNOW UPDATE

Buster Olney is reporting that Tyler Glasnow will be called up to the big leagues to pitch this Thursday. Glasnow will in essence be replacing Jameson Taillon (see this Daily Trends piece for more on Taillon). That’s exciting news. Glasnow is one of the most talented, right-handed pitching prospects in the game (coming in to the season he was ranked as the 14th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America, 11th for Baseball Prospectus and 10th according to MLB.com). Alas, in case you missed it yesterday, let me quote myself about Glasnow. There’s some greatness here, but also one massive concern.

Over his last five outings Glasnow has thrown 29.2 innings.

Glasnow has allowed five earned runs.

Glasnow has allowed 13 hits.

Glasnow has struck out 36 batters.

All of that is top shelf stuff.

The one negative though is a whopper.

Glasnow has walked a total of TWENTY-ONE batters in 29.2 innings.

Let me ask you the following; do you think that big league hitters will swing at pitches that minors leaguers won’t? That seems unlikely. Will Glasnow be able to create more swings and misses from big leaguers than he did from minor leaguers where his stuff simply overwhelmed them? Seems unlikely. It could all come together for Glasnow and he could mash big leaguers. He could. It just seems like now is a terrible time to call up Glasnow since he is having such trouble throwing strikes.

Finally, let’s talk workload. Here are Glasnow’s innings pitched marks since he became a professional. Remember, Glasnow isn’t even 23 years old yet.

2012: 38.1 innings
2013: 111.1 innings
2014: 143.2 innings
2015: 109.1 innings
2016: 96 innings

Glasnow has never thrown 145 innings in a season. He’s only thrown 115 innings one time. I would suggest to you that there is little chance he throws more than 160-innings this season, at best.

Be cautious with your willingness to go all-in with Glasnow.

Here is Jonathan Mayo's report

SEAN MANAEA UPDATE

Sen Manaea of the Athletics has posted a 5.85 ERA and 1.47 WHIP through 11 starts. That’s terrible work. He has also allowed at least five runs in four of his last nine starts as he’s frequently getting blown up. He’s also failed to last six innings in any of his last three starts. On the year he has a basically league average 3.00 BB/9 rate with a slightly below league average 1.00 GB/FB ratio. Let me sum that up for you. He’s just not a finished product yet and starting him in a mixed league is going to be fraught with danger. Some good, some bad, but overall not usable in mixed leagues.

CARLOS RODON UPDATE

Carlos Rodon has allowed four homers and 10 runs his last two starts over 10.2 innings. Those two efforts have blown up his ERA to 4.50 and his WHIP to 1.53. People are running from him in droves. I get it. The results just aren’t there at the moment for the 23 year old lefty hurler. However, there are still some positives here.

Rodon has 91 strikeouts in 92 innings. That’s a strikeout an inning if you misplaced your calculator. That’s a good thing.

His walk rate per nine innings is a league average 3.13. That’s not exciting in the least… until you place it in context. As a rookie last season Rodon walked 4.59 batters per nine innings. That means he’s knocked off 1.46 walks per nine from year one to year two of his big league career. That’s exciting progress is it not?

Rodon has a solid 1.29 GB/FB ratio. I like that. Despite a league average fly ball rate his HR/FB ratio this season is fifty percent above the league average at 15.5 percent. That number is going to regress. Remember, I noted how he allowed four homers his last two starts after permitting 11 his first 14 outings?

Progress.

ZACK EFLIN UPDATE

Zach Eflin, a 22 year old righty of the Phillies, needed fewer than 100 pitches to throw a complete game, one run effort at the Braves Tuesday. Through five outings this season he has a 4.30 ERA but that is deceiving as he allowed eight runs while racking up just eight outs. In the four outings since then he’s allowed six earned runs while walking a single batter. He’s not beating himself with the free pass, has thrown three straight quality starts and has been very, very solid since that first horrible outing. Going back to his Triple-A work this season we see 11 starts with a 2.90 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 1.45 walks per nine innings. Again, he just doesn’t beat himself. Still, he’s been unable to transition his talents to strikeouts as his professional strikeout rate per nine is 5.98 per nine, and even lower in the big leagues at 4.60 per nine. Not walking folks is great but not missing bats leaves you open to trouble. Think Zack Davies, Bartolo Colon or Mike Leake.

DFS DIAMONDS

*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.

CATCHER: Russell Martin has two homers, nine RBI and nine runs scored his last 10 games. He faces Ian Kennedy who has been battered for 17 homers his last 10 games.    

FIRST BASE: A.J. Reed has two homers his last three games. He’s got a huge bat that is only starting to awaken. Wade LeBlanc gets blasted by lefties. Check out his career numbers: .316/.367/.490. Just terrible work.

SECOND BASE: Logan Forsythe has a hit in 9-of-10 games. He’s also scored seven runs his last nine games. Righties are batting .311 with a .353 OBP and .494 SLG against Jered Weaver. He’s allowed 10 runs his last 10 innings and 15 homers his last 10 games.

THIRD BASE: Look at the lefty numbers against Shelby Miller (.333/.424/.482). That’s insanely high. Yangervis Solarte is hitting .338/.423/.603 on the road this season. He also has a hit in 9-of-10 games raising his season long OPS from .793 to .874.

SHORTSTOP: Martin Perez has allowed four homers his last three games. He has a 4.38 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the road this season. Xander Bogaerts has hit .339 with a .406 OBP and .482 SLG against portsiders. He has a .877 OPS at home as well.
  
OUTFIELD: Jayson Werth has walked 12 times his last 10 games. He has a .370 OBP at home this season. He has a .429 OBP against Matt Garza while hitting a homer and batting .400 over 21 plate appearances.    

OUTFIELD: Carlos Beltran is batting .318/.356/.538 on the road. At night the numbers are .311/.345/.580. He’s gone 5-for-9 with a homer against Miguel Gonzalez.  

OUTFIELD: Over his last 10 starts Drew Smyly has allowed 14 homers. His ERA has gone from 3.63 to 5.33. Mike Trout has three homers and 17 hits his last 10 games, got engaged over the weekend and is sure to mash Smyly. 

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).