JAY BRUCE UPDATE

While everyone is talking about Adam Duvall (see this Ray’s Ramblings piece), Jay Bruce has been quietly extremely productive for the Reds. Through roughly a third of the season Bruce is on pace for 30 homers, 100 RBI and 85 runs scored. While those are really big numbers, note that he has hit 30 homers three times, has driven in as many as 109 runners in a season and has scored 80 runs in four campaigns. Obviously those numbers are doable in 2016 if a bit unlikely given his performance the past few years (it’s certainly questionable if he can maintain his current 20.0 percent HR/FB ratio wince the last time he had a mark that high was back in 2008). It’s not like the 29 year old is washed up and he is proving that right now.

Bruce has a .272 batting average, and that’s a concern. I say that given that he’s hit .249 for his career and has been under .230 the past two seasons. He’s simply not likely to continue along at his current pace since he’s only hit .263 a single time in a career that began in 2008. He’s also on the trade block and it’s certainly uncertain to land in an offensive environment.

Bruce is as he has always been, a nice power bat, albeit one with warts.

TYLER DUFFEY UPDATE

The Twins righty, Tyler Duffey, has made seven starts with a 4.57 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. What has gone wrong with an arm that seemingly was usable in mixed leagues just a couple of weeks ago?

Duffey has a 7.84 K/9 mark. Solid.

Duffey has a 1.96 BB/9 rate. Impressive.

Duffey has a strong 47.4 percent ground ball rate.

Duffey has a strong 1.62 GB/FB ratio.

With all the good though has come a negative.

Duffey has given up five earned runs in 3-straight starts (16 total earned runs). He’s been blasted for 28 hits in 16.2 innings.

Duffey has a 23.3 percent line drive rate, a big number (20 percent is the league average).

Duffey has a .351 BABIP that has led to a .292 batting average.

Duffey has also struggled against lefties with a .338/.380/.459 slash line.

Duffey has a nice future as a 4/5 big league starter, but right now he’s simply giving up too many hard hit balls to trust in mixed leagues.

DREW SMYLY UPDATE

Drew Smyly is healthy. That’s what you really need to keep in mind after he was battered for eight runs in his last outing leading to 13 runs his last 10.0 innings. I’m not trying to minimize those beat downs that include five homers in three starts, but let’s look at the positive.

Smyly has 70 strikeouts in 66 innings. That’s impressive.

Smyly has walked just 2.18 batters per nine innings. That’s impressive.

Smyly has a 4.38 K/BB ratio that is the 16th best mark in baseball.

Remember that one of the strongest in-season predictors of a pitchers level of future performance is strikeout to walk ratio.

Even with the recent beat downs Smyly still owns a 1.18 WHIP which is better than Felix Hernandez (1.22) and David Price (1.22).

The real issue for Smyly has been the home run. For his career his HR/9 mark is 1.10, a bit worse than the league average but hardly shocking for a guy who owns a 0.87 GB/FB ratio that is a poor mark. Last season the HR/FB rose to 1.49 and it’s even higher this season at 1.64. That’s what happens when you post a 50 percent fly ball rate as Smyly has this season.

If Smyly stays healthy the ERA could come down a full run moving forward, and note that the strikeouts and walk are borderline elite while his WHIP still impresses.

Buy, not sell.

DANNY VALENCIA UPDATE

Danny Valencia continues to mash for the Athletics. Through 138 plate appearances his slash line is dominating (.333/.370/.558). That’s a big boy line, elite level stuff. Is that where Valencia is at this point?

Valencia has a 5.8 percent walk rate in 2016.
His career mark is 5.9 percent.

Valencia has a 16.7 percent strikeout rate.
His career mark is 18.6 percent but the mark has been at least 19.4 percent in 4-straight years.

Valencia has a 1.21 GB/FB ratio.
His career mark is 1.28.

On the surface that’s a lot of similarity and it certainly doesn’t speak to the growth we have seen.

Valencia has an 11.5 percent HR/FB ratio for his career. The mark was 22.2 percent last season and is 21.1 percent this season. You know me, I get VERY nervous when someone suddenly doubles their HR/FB ratio, especially when that doubling takes their mark to an elite level.

Valencia has a 37.4 percent hard hit ball rate but that’s just the 41st best mark in baseball. That and his 21.5 percent line drive rate doesn’t support the .354 BABIP he owns. Given that his career BABIP is .308, well, you know.

There are also the splits.

Valencia is batting .319 with a .807 OPS against righties this season.

Valencia hit .285 with a .881 OPS against righties last season.

That makes sense but…

For his career Valencia is batting .244 with a .675 OPS against righties.

He’s clearly improved the last two seasons, but can a guy go from a below league average performer against righties for his career to a borderline elite level performer against them? You know what I think.

Valencia has been great, but I see a slowdown coming virtually across the board to the point where he is playable as a corner infielder but not as a standout as we’ve seen to this point.

THE 2016 FANTASY ALARM BASEBALL RANKINGS ARE UPDATED FOR JUNE. CLICK ON THE LINK TO SEE MORE THAN 600 PLAYERS RANKED FOR THE REST OF 2016.

 

 

DFS DIAMONDS

*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.

CATCHER: J.T. Realmuto has a .333 average and .360 OBP the past week. He hasn’t hit righties well at all (.167) but Jonathon has been blasted by righties all year (.294/.352/.485).

FIRST BASE: Edwin Encarnacion has a hit in 4-straight games. Over his last seven outings he’s driven in eight RBI. He’s hitting .438 with a homer in 16 at-bats against Tanaka and has a .490 SLG at home and .515 SLG at night.   

SECOND BASE: John Lamb cannot get righties out (.338/.390/.524) and now he takes the mound in Colorado. DJ LeMahieu has a 10-game hitting streak, has scored five times his last two games, and he has a .985 OPS at home this season.

THIRD BASE: Kyle Seager has a hit in 4-straight (eight total hits). He has two homers, six RBI, four runs and three walks the last two games and he’s also produced five hits in six at-bats against Christian Friedrich.

SHORTSTOP: Brandon Crawford has a .267/.355/.483 slash line against righties. He takes on Williams Perez who has stuck out 19 batters in seven starts covering 38.2 innings.

OUTFIELD: Marcell Ozuna is hitless in two games but he’s hitting .417 against Jonathan Niese (12 ABs). He’s also hitting .355 at home with a .994 OPS and he’s hitting .360 at night with a 1.048 OPS as well.  

OUTFIELD: Righties have hit .289/.390/.410 against Ray who has a 4.67 ERA and 1.67 WHIP this season. George Springer has scored seven times his last six games and in three of the last four outings he’s produced three hits.  

OUTFIELD: Lefties are blasting Mike Wright (.354/.411/.489). Jackie Bradley Jr. has a .989 OPS against righties and the mark was 1.175 in May.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).