Justin Upton is scheduled to take a physical with the Tigers Wednesday. If the 28 year old passes he will then sign on the dotted line for $132.75 million over the next six years with the club from Detroit. Tied to draft pick compensation, the Tigers will give up only a third round selection for the signing of the slugger. Why? Their first round pick was protected, and their second round pick had already been sent to the Nationals in exchange for signing Jordan Zimmermann.
Upton will play left field and joins Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez as part of the best 3-4-5 trio in baseball.
Upton has appeared in at least 149 games in each of the past five seasons.
Upton has two seasons of 20/20 to his credit, missed last season by one steal and he also had another effort of 17/18.
Over the last five seasons here is an average Upton effort: .271-26-82-94-15.
How many players in baseball reached all five of those marks last season? Only three men: Manny Machado, Anthony Rizzo and Paul Goldschmidt.
Upton is not a star.
Upton is unlikely to ever become a star.
Still, he’s in the prime of his life physically. He will be in the heart of a solid order. He moves from Petco in San Diego to Detroit. Comerica Park certainly isn’t an idea hitting environment by any means, but it’s also not appreciably different than Petco. Well, maybe it’s worse than you think. A couple of Park Factor numbers. Make sure you check out the homer category.
RUNS
San Diego: 20th
Detroit: 26th
DOUBLES
San Diego: 19th
Detroit: 15th
HOMERS
San Diego: 10th
Detroit: 26th
The ballpark isn’t going to do Upton any favors.
Long one of my favorites, Upton’s cost always seems to be depressed on draft day. It’s largely because of the expectations placed on his shoulders that he would be a superstar. He’s not. Get over it. As I’ve briefly noted above, he stays healthy, hits homers, steals bases and is productive. The stability it a big key for me. Think about some of the other elite options at the outfield spot. Do these guys make you feel warm and fuzzy in terms of their health outlook? Names like Giancarlo Stanton, George Springers, Ryan Braun, Corey Dickerson, Carlos Gomez and Yasiel Puig are all tremendous talents, but they are also big-time health risks.
Roster Upton. Don’t overpay, but roster him. You’ll be happy you did.
For more on all the signings see our 2016 Free Agent Tracker.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 8 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).