Christian Yelich is a 23 year old, former first round draft pick, with intriguing skills. Solid as a rookie, Yelich had a pretty impressive first full season in 2014 as Christian showed speed, patience and success last year for the Marlins. The question for 2015 is will he repeat his effort of last season or will the coming campaign be a year of growth for the talented outfielder. 

THE MINORS

2010: Drafted in the first round, 23rd overall, by the Marlins as an 18 year old. He appeared in 12 games hitting .362 with a .400 OBP (six games in Rookie Ball, six in Single-A). 

2011: Baseball Prospectus ranked him as the 94th best prospect in baseball. Appeared in 122 games at Single-A ball hitting .312 with a .871 OPS. Yelich hit 15 homers, drove in 77 runners, swiped 32 bases and scored 73 times.

2012: Baseball America had him ranked as the 41st best prospect in baseball. Baseball Prospectus ranked him 33rd while MLB.com had him 35th. Appeared in 107 games hitting .329 with a .918 OPS (106 games were at High-A). Yelich had 12 homers, 48 RBIs, 20 steals and 76 runs scored.

2013: Baseball America had him ranked as the 15th best prospect in baseball. Baseball Prospectus ranked him 23rd while MLB.com had him 13th  Appeared in 61 minor league games at Rookie Ball, High-A and Double-A. He hit just .275 with a .853 OPS. Drove nine balls into the seats and stole just give bags. 

2014: Appeared in four games hitting .200. 

TOTALS: .311/.386/.497 with 37 homers, 168 RBIs, 195 runs and 59 thefts in 306 games. 

THE MAJORS

2013: In an abbreviated rookie season he appeared in 62 games batting .288 with a .370 OBP. Yelich hit four big flies, drove in 16 runners, scored 34 times and stole 10 bases without being caught. 

2014: In his first full season Yelich hit .284 with a .362 OBP over 144 games. Christian had nine homers, 54 RBIs, 94 runs scored and stole 21 bases (in 28 attempts).
 

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THE SKILLS

I've head whispers of a Michael Brantley type player with Yelich. That's fair based on their overall skill sets. But that doesn't mean Christian will have a 2015 effort that will match the '14 fantasy line of Brantley. There's one huge reason to address right off the top. There's no way Yelich hits 20 homers. Here's why.

As a minor leaguer Yelich had a ground ball rate of 60 percent. Through two years with the Marlins his ground ball rate has gone up to 61.6 percent. That's insanely high. In fact, only three men had a higher ground ball rate in 2014 than Yelich's 61.0 percent mark: Ben Revere (64.7), Norichika Aoki (61.9) and Derek Jeter (61.6). There were 23 men who hit at at least 50 percent of their balls into the ground in 2014 (realize that is way below Christian's rate). How man of them hit 20 homers? Two - Hunter Pence and Ian Desmond. Guys like Yelich, who are over 60 percent, have no chance at 20 homers. None. Yelich does a solid job converting fly balls into homers, his career 12.7 percent HR/F ratio plays, but he simply doesn't lift the ball enough to be any king of power threat. Hence 13 homers in 822 career at-bats. He's only 23 years old so growth could certainly come, but every single bit of information about him since he became a professional suggests that if he hits 15 homers in 2015 he's had a fantastic season. 

Speaking of his age... I believe that he's 6'3" but if that guy weighs 200 lbs, his listed weight, I'll eat my shoe. Only way that he weighs that much is if his muscle is made out of iron. That's another reason - the eye ball test - that tells me to be very dubious about a substantial power jump in 2015. I'll also talk about his ability to pull the ball below.

As much worry as there is about his power, there really isn't about the rest of his game.

Yelich owns a 21.7 percent line drive rate which I like. The .363 BABIP is high and it's hard to think he can consistently produce a number that high despite his skills and speed. However, he did post a mark of .378 in the minors so we're left to ponder if Yelich is one of the rare bread of hitters that can consistently produce a BABIP over .350. Odds are against it, but maybe he can break that mold. Maybe. To reiterate though - he's set an extremely high bar for himself and the regression monster usually isn't kind to folks who like to buck the norm. 

Yelich walked 70 times last season, and through two years his walk rate is 10.8, a solid mark. That has allowed him to post OBP marks of .370 and .362 in his two seasons. He does strike out a fair bit, 137 last season, but the resulting career 0.50 mark is better than the league average of about 0.39. It's not a great number, but it's clearly something that he's going to contribute positively too. 

Given his ability to get on base, the fact he scored 94 runs last season shouldn't come as a shock. He should yet again push triple digits if the Marlins new look club gels as expected. However, spending all that time at the top of the Marlins' order will also limit him to less than impressive RBI marks (he had 54 last season), though it's not yet certain if he will bat leadoff, second, or drop down furthr after the addition of Dee Gordon.

As for the steals, another run to, get what I did there with "run" ?, is certainly possible. He might even hit 25, but set those expectations at 15 so you don't end up being disappointed.

SPLITS

A season and a half is really too early to draw any 100 percent accurate conclusions. Still, there are some interesting things going on here. 

First, he seems to not care where he's playing. Here are his career numbers.

Home: .284/.364/.396
Away: .285/.365/.404

That's actually truly remarkable consistency.

He's still struggling as a lefty swinger trying to hit lefties.

vs lefties: .258/.324/.361
vs. righties: .295/.380/.416

He's certainly not awful against lefties, but he could use some improvement in that area. 

He would also do well to stop trying to pull the ball. The numbers are pretty stark in this respect as well. When he tries to pull the ball he's Nick Punto. When he hits it up the middle or to left he's Giancarlo Stanton.

Pull: .611 OPS
Center: 1.019 OPS
Opposite: 1.039 OPS

The fact is that he's simply a better hitter when he doesn't try to jerk the ball. This is yet another reason that a power breakout is unlikely in 2015. 

CONCLUSION

To sum things up, I like what I see with Yelich, and I'd love to have him on my team. At the same time 20/20 isn't going to happen, an appreciable growth from last season may not occur either. He's a young, stable piece to build around, and frankly even with only minor improvement compared to last season he would end up being one hell of a fantasy weapon. 

10 team lg: The lack of homers and RBIs relegate him to the level of being a solid outfielder, not a difference maker, in this setup. Might be better off going with a guy like Brett Gardner who always seems to fall on draft day since the hype with Yelich could drive up his price. 

12 team lg: He's a stretch if you roster him as your second outfielder, but if he's your third I'm not going to say I dislike that thought at all.

15 team lg: Can absorb the lack of homers and RBIs easier in this format. If I'm wrong and he does develop that power stroke - ala Michael Brantley - then Yelich could be a difference maker in 2015.

NL-only: Could be special here. Taken as your second outfielder, the youngster will stabilize your batting average, add a good amount of thefts, and score bushels of runs.