Henderson Alvarez had a better ERA than Zack Greinke in 2015 (2.65 to 2.71), a better WHIP than Lance Lynn (1.24 to 1.25) and won more games than David Price (12 to 11). Yet I'm here to tell you that Alvarez is nothing more than a matchup play in mixed leagues. Maybe that's too strong. He's no more than a depth play that likely won't hurt your ratios, but there's not as much to get excited about in the fantasy game as there is in the real world with him. Read on to find out why that is. 

THE MINORS

Alvarez, who stands 6 feet tall and weighs 105 lbs, had a solid minor league career, though the numbers don't jump off the page. Over 87 outings, 82 which were starts, Alvarez went 29-24 with a 3.86 ERA and a.126 WHIP over 429.1 innings. Interestingly, he has never thrown a pitch at Triple-A. 

THE MAJORS

2011: Made 10 starts for the Blue Jays going 1-3 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 63.2 innings.

2012: Made 31 starts for the Blue Jays going 9-14 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over 187.1 innings.

2013: Made 17 starts for the Marlins going 5-6 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 102.2 innings.

2014: Made 39 starts for the Marlins going 12-7 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over 187 innings.

TOTALS: 27-30, 3.70 ERA, 1.28 WHIP over 540.2 innings (88 starts)


THE SKILLS

Is staying healthy a skill? I guess we could debate that, but whether we agree or on the outcome of the question it's still fair to posit the following for the sake of our discussion: certain players seem capable of playing a full slate of games regardless of the overall health of their body. In the case of Alvarez, we have to be cautious with his physical outlook, and it's not just because he is a pitcher. In each of the last two seasons he's missed time do to shoulder woes, and that has to at least cause a little yellow flag to be waived around, does it not? Numerically we have a hurler who has failed to reach 190-innings in his three full seasons while averaging 159 innings a season. Not rendering a verdict, I'm merely informing the jury.

Let's discuss ratios, even though they obviously aren't "skills" per se. 

Since Alvarez began his career he has that 3.70 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The big league average since 2011 are 3.94 and 1.29. He's been league average in both these measures. 'But Ray, he had a 2.65 ERA last season.' So? Three of his four seasons his ERA has been at least 3.53 and his career mark is 3.70. Just taking the totality of the evidence you would have to think that his ERA from last season was artificially low. Let's go next level on that.

According to SIERA his mark last season was 3.70.
According to FIP his mark last season was 3.58. 
His ERC (Component ERA) was 3.59.

There is also this. Alvarez posted a mark of 79.3 percent in the left on base percentage column. That was the 9th best mark in baseball. The only man in baseball to reach that level the last two seasons is Clayton Kershaw. Note Alvarez posted marks of 70.1 and 67.7 percent the previous two seasons. A massive correction is coming in 2015.

Still think he deserved that 2.65 ERA he posted?

If Henderson is league average in terms of his outlook for the ratio categories, he better bring the punchouts then, right? Not so much. In four big league season's Alvarez has a 4.78 K/9 mark. That's not a misprint. He strikes out fewer than five batters per nine innings for his career. OK, let's give him credit. He jacked up the K/9 rate the last two seasons to 5.22. #ParadeTime 

Alvarez is not solid, not average but unacceptable as a strikeout option. Last season was the first time he struck out 80 batters in a season and his 111 punchouts were fewer than the following list of pitchers: Dellin Betances, Vidal Nuno, Charlie Morton, Kyle Kendrick, Brad Peacock, Josh Collmenter, Ricky Nolasco and Jarred Cosart to name but a few. Alvarez is pathetic in the K depart.

In three areas Alvarez is elite, so there's that.

(1) He gets grounders as well as any man in baseball. 

Each year of his career his ground ball mark has been over 53 percent, which is an elite number. Last season his 53.8 percent mark checked in as the 10th best mark in the game. 

Each year of his career his GB/FB ratio has been at least 2.04. Last season his 2.21 mark checked in as the 3rd best mark in the game. 

(2) He flipping killed it at home. 

In 2014 he could lay claim to being one of the best in baseball at home as he went 7-2 with a 1.60 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 14 starts. He also held hitters to a mere .228 batting average while surrendering a mere three homers. The question is, was that a one year outlier? Obviously he's not going to consistently pitch like he's Greg Maddux so some pull back is coming no doubt. Should also be noted that in 45 career starts at home he's 14-17 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. #JustSaying

(3) He doesn't beat himself with the walk. For his career he walks just 2.03 batters per nine innings. Last season the mark was even better at 1.59, a truly special number (33 walks in 30 starts).

CONCLUSION

With wins being variable, I simply don't understand how anyone could feel good about drafting Alvarez if the expectation is that he will help to lead your staff. His strikeout total is deficient for a starter. His career has shown him to be league average in the ratio categories, and even last seasons "success" in ERA seems like a mirage. He keeps the ball in the yard and the ball on the ground as good as anyone going, and who doesn't love the fact that he doesn't walk anyone, but Alvarez simply doesn't own an exciting skill set for a fantasy hurler, especially in shallow formats. He won't be on any of my squads in 2015.

10 team lg: With no strikeouts he's nothing more than a streaming option. 

12 team lg: Can't say my thoughts are much different than with the 10-team call.

15 team lg: I can get behind Alvarez a bit more here, but still, not overly interested. You have to realize that last seasons effort is the best things will likely get, and the odds are that a pull back is on the horizon.

NL-only: As long as you don't have to pay for him like he's really a 2.65 ERA type of guy then you can go for it. But the lack of punchouts mean you will have to bolster your staff with power arms to make up the difference.