UFC 300 DFS Picks & Playbook - MMA Strategy & Cheat Sheet
UFC 300 takes place this Saturday live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas Nevada. The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00PM EST on ESPN, followed the Prelims at 8:00 PM on ESPN, and finally the Main Card on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00PM EST.
This is shaping up to be the greatest fight card of all time with even the first fight on the early prelims featuring two former champions. The BMF belt is on the line as Max Holloway faces off against Justin Gaethje in a fight that is a top contender for the fight of the year.
The Main Event faces off Alex Pereira as he looks to continue his title reign in a second division against the former champ of the division coming back from injury Jamahal Hill. This whole card should be intense from start to finish!
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS.
Now let's look at some top UFC DFS picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
DFS Picks, Playbook & DraftKings UFC Lineup Advice: UFC 300, Pereira vs. Hill
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill | 8300/7900 | - | Stackability: Low | -130/110 | 110./165. |
The light heavyweight title is on the line when two fan favorites face off at the top of the best card of all time. Pereira brings his elite kickboxing and next level KO power to the cage as he takes on returning champion Jamahal Hill. Hill has the superior volume, and he hasn't been KO'd in the past, but his level of competition isn't as high as Pereira's. I think Hill gets it done with but late stoppage, but with Hill returning from an Achilles’ injury it'll be interesting to see if his mobility and speed that made him such a problem at 205lbs has fully returned. Pereira needs the KO to win the fight, so I'll have both of these guys across my lineups, but I'm leaning towards picking Hill straight up.
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Bo Nickal | 9500 | Cody Brundage | Somewhat-Safe | -2,100 | -900 |
| Nickal is going to wrestle, he is the biggest favorite in UFC history and the only big favorite who isn't facing a former champion. He probably wins this early, and the only question is whether the fight goes long enough to pay off his massive salary. He's the safest play by far and in a win, I don't see any way that he scores under 100. | |||||
| Zhang Weili | 9200 | Yan Xiaonan | Somewhat-Safe | -485 | -110 |
| Weili has a clear wrestling advantage and five rounds to work with so in a win she should smash the slate in scoring. On the feet this fight is close so that's why I have Nickal above her since he is a little safer, but if this goes to decision, I wouldn't put it past Weili to land 100+ strikes, 5+ takedowns, and 15 minutes of control time which leads her to scoring 120+. | |||||
| Justin Gaethje | 8800 | Max Holloway | Somewhat-Safe | -162 | 140. |
| This fight is going to be pure chaos and I'm almost positive the winner hits the optimal lineup. I'll be close to 100% playing this fight, and with Gaethje only being -162 for $8800 he might go "overlooked". In a win I would be shocked if he didn't land at least 175 significant strikes and Holloway is going to be there to be hit all day. I'm not as confident in Justin winning the fight as I am some of the other high-priced plays, but when he does, he likely scores 100+. | |||||
| Jalin Turner | 8900 | Renato Moicano | Moderate | -238 | -165 |
| Turner doesn't throw as much volume as Gaethje and I have a little concern of Moicano being able to get some takedowns, but Turner is long, fast, and has a ton of power. He should be able to find the KO at some point, but it all depends on when it comes if he is going to outscore the other high-priced fighters. | |||||
| Arman Tsarukyan | 8700 | Charles Oliveira | Moderate | -225 | 100. |
| Charles is going to go forward, and his fights are always chaos so if Arman is ready to deal with it, he should be able to put up a massive score. Charles repeatedly gets rocked or dropped in Round 1 so if Arman can finish the fight, he is going to put up a massive score. His submission skills are good as well so he may be confident enough to go for takedowns, and when Charles is on his back, he is comfortable staying there to hunt submissions so there could be a lot of control time. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Diego Lopes | 8500 | Sodiq Yusuff | Moderate | -142 | 110. |
| Lopes is pretty much win inside the distance or bust so this is a GPP only play. He has a far better submission game and if he can get the fight to the ground, I expect him to get to Sodiq's back. The mid-range this week are full of tightly contested fights so I'm going with the fighters who I think can score huge when they win. | |||||
| Jessica Andrade | 8100 | Marina Rodriguez | Moderate | -142 | 200. |
| Andrade throws out a ton of volume when she is in her zone, and she has the clear power advantage here. Rodriguez does have the reach advantage and she has good movement so it may be tough for Andrade to find her, but if anyone in this fight is scoring well, I'm confident that Andrade is the side you want. | |||||
| Aljamain Sterling | 8400 | Calvin Kattar | Somewhat-Risky | -175 | 300. |
| Sterling is going to want to wrestle, and once he gets the fight down, he has the clear advantage. If this fight stays standing Kattar probably looks like he should be a -300 favorite, but I expect Aljo to be able to get in and close the distance and get to Kattar's back. I have a bet on Sterling by submission at +450, but he is going to need a really specific outcome to hit the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Jiri Prochazka | 8000 | Aleksandar Rakic | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | 150. |
| I have a bet on Rakic by decision, but for DK purposes I think Jiri is the side you want. Rakic has gone to a ton of boring decisions in his UFC run, and Jiri hasn't seen the judges’ scorecards yet so if Jiri wins it's probably by swarming Rakic and overwhelming him. Rakic is also coming back from a long layoff after a leg injury so it'll be interesting to see if he can get his wrestling game going. | |||||
| Bobby Green | 8600 | Jim Miller | Somewhat-Risky | -185 | 240. |
| Green can throw out a lot of volume, but Miller is durable, so he probably won't be able to get the finish. Green is only a few months removed from a brutal KO loss to Jalin Turner so there is a lot of concern that he isn't fully healed. He's more technical, quicker, and younger, but if we get a brawl Miller is live. | |||||
| Jim Miller | 7600 | Bobby Green | Somewhat-Risky | 154 | 275. |
| Miller has won four of his last five fights and in all of them they were by 1st or 2nd round finish, so he has massive upside. He has good odds to get the finish, good odds for an early finish, and if anyone is getting this fight to the ground it will be Miller. He will be highly owned for $7600 and only +154 but it is for good reason. | |||||
| Sodiq Yusuff | 7700 | Diego Lopes | Risky | 120 | 350. |
| Yusuff has a clear striking advantage and if he keeps it standing, he probably dominates this fight. Lopes is durable and Yusuff is more of a volume fighter than a KO artist so I don't know how well he scores in a decision, but anytime you can get a win from an underdog you take it, and he is one of the more likely dogs to get a win. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Max Holloway | 7400 | Justin Gaethje | Somewhat-Risky | 136 | 550. |
| Max Holloway is going to be the highest owned fighter outside of Weili and Nickal, but it is for good reason. He can land 150+ strikes in a loss, and in a win, there is no ceiling to his score. He hasn't had much success up at 155lbs, but I think he bulked up correctly this time, so I expect him to have more success. I personally think Max wins the fight, but that is with my extreme bias as Max is my favorite fighter of all time. | |||||
| Charles Oliveira | 7500 | Arman Tsarukyan | Somewhat-Risky | 185 | 275. |
| Charles is always pushing forward, so I expect that not to change. He goes with a kill or be killed approach and that is great for scoring, so if he does get the win, he should hit the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Yan Xiaonan | 7000 | Zhang Weili | Risky | 370 | 1100 |
| Yan has a ton of power striking and this fight should be close on the feet. If she can keep it standing, she has a legitimate shot to win, but my concern is that she hasn't been able to in the past. High ceiling, low floor play but at 7k she could be worth taking a shot. | |||||
| Renato Moicano | 7300 | Jalin Turner | Risky | 195 | 350. |
| Moicano has better submission and better wrestling, but it is going to be tough for him to get in on Turner. I don't love this matchup for him, but I know he is at least willing to go in and trade shots to try to make the fight exciting. I wouldn't be surprised if he won and scored 100, or if he lost and scored 4 if he gets KO'd closing the distance. | |||||
| Cody Garbrandt | 7100 | Deiveson Figueiredo | Risky | 245 | 500. |
| Cody likes to slow down the pace of his fights so this could be a rough start to the night if he isn't looking to engage. Cody should look to mix in wrestling here, and of the two Cody is more likely to get KO'd. At his best he has elite defense and movement and he'll need to be on his game to get a win, but unless he wins in the first two rounds, his volume isn't high enough for him to pay off his price. | |||||
| Holly Holm | 6900 | Kayla Harrison | Risky | 330 | +1,000 |
| Holly is an all-time great, but this is a setup fight for Harrison. Holm is 42 years old, and she is giving up a ton of strength to Harrison. Kayla is a sneaky GPP play if she can mix in her wrestling against Holly, but I think for most of this fight we get a slow paced grinding style while Holm tries to circle the cage and keep the fight standing. Holm doesn't have much of a ceiling and at +1000 to win ITD I likely won't play her. | |||||
| Cody Brundage | 6700 | Bo Nickal | Risky | 1100 | +1,600 |
| He's the biggest underdog I've ever seen, and it is for good reason. Brundage was a college wrestler himself, so he is probably the most prepared for Bo out of all of Bo's past opponents, but this is a different level. If it stays standing, I still think Bo is ahead, but Brundage is likely to try to just go out swinging in the first round. He has a higher ceiling than Holm and at sub 5% ownership he may be worth keeping in a lineup if you are playing 20. | |||||
Sample UFC 300 FS Lineup
Live Dogs
Hill, Holloway, Jiri, Oliviera
Pereira vs. Hill UFC 300 Picks & Stats
Alex Pereira | vs. | Jamahal Hill |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 12-1-0 (1 NC) |
7 | Knockouts | 7 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
-130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
Zhang Weili | vs. | Yan Xiaonan |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 24-3-0 | Record | Record: 18-3-0 (1 NC) |
7 | Knockouts | 8 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
-485 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Justin Gaethje | vs. | Max Holloway |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 25-4-0 | Record | Record: 25-7-0 |
20 | Knockouts | 11 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
-162 | Vegas Odds | 136 |
Charles Oliveira | vs. | Arman Tsarukyan |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 34-9-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 21-3-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 9 |
21 | Subs | 5 |
185 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
Bo Nickal | vs. | Cody Brundage |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 5-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-5-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 5 |
3 | Subs | 3 |
-210 | Vegas Odds | 1100 |
0 | ||
Jiri Prochazka | vs. | Aleksandar Rakic |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 29-4-1 | Record | Record: 14-3-0 |
25 | Knockouts | 9 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
Calvin Kattar | vs. | Aljamain Sterling |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 23-7-0 | Record | Record: 23-4-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 8 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
145 | Vegas Odds | -175 |
Holly Holm | vs. | Kayla Harrison |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 15-6-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 16-1-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 6 |
330 | Vegas Odds | -425 |
Sodiq Yusuff | vs. | Diego Lopes |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 23-6-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 9 |
1 | Subs | 12 |
120 | Vegas Odds | -142 |
Jalin Turner | vs. | Renato Moicano |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 14-7-0 | Record | Record: 18-5-1 |
10 | Knockouts | 0 |
4 | Subs | 10 |
-238 | Vegas Odds | 195 |
Jessica Andrade | vs. | Marina Rodriguez |
$8,100 | DFS Salary | $8,100 |
| Record: 25-12-0 | Record | Record: 17-3-2 |
10 | Knockouts | 7 |
8 | Subs | 1 |
-142 | Vegas Odds | 120 |
Bobby Green | vs. | Jim Miller |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 31-15-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 37-17-0 (1 NC) |
11 | Knockouts | 7 |
9 | Subs | 20 |
-185 | Vegas Odds | 154 |
Deiveson Figueiredo | vs. | Cody Garbrandt |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 22-3-1 | Record | Record: 14-5-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 11 |
8 | Subs | 0 |
-305 | Vegas Odds | 245 |