There is a plethora of information to analyze and study when preparing for fantasy baseball drafts. But in order for players to accumulate statistics that make GMs salivate at the thought of drafting, they must stay healthy enough to stay on the field. Injuries are guaranteed to happen throughout the season and every GM is susceptible to the same risk. However, there are some players who are more injury-prone than others. In addition, there are some players who missed a significant amount of time in 2017 and now present an elevated risk heading into 2018. So once you are done crunching numbers, make sure you spend some time calibrating your rankings taking into account the injury factor.
Noah Syndergaard (SP-NYM)
Heading into 2017, Noah Syndergaard was one of the heavy favorites to win the National League CY Young Award. He was coming off his first full season in the big leagues in 2016, going 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 218 strikeouts in 183.2 innings in addition to a masterful performance in the Wild Card game against the Giants. However, he never really got the horse out of the stable last year when he was shut down after just five starts with a lat injury. That was on the heels of having biceps tendinitis and refusing to undergo an MRI which ultimately proved to be a disastrous decision on his part. Thor missed over four months before returning in late September to make a couple quick starts and finished the disappointing season with a 1-2 record, 2.97 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 34 strikeouts in 30.1 innings. He appears to be fully healthy now but there has to be some trepidation for fantasy GMs to rely on him as an early round draft pick and anchor of a rotation. If he can avoid the injury bug, Thor should be one of the most dominant pitchers in the league and can provide great value if he slips in drafts due to his injury concerns.
Daniel Murphy (2B-WAS)
Murphy underwent micro fracture and debridement surgery on his right knee last October and was still on crutches as of December. The procedure he had is very serious and it will not be an easy road for him to return to normal as the Nationals’ second baseman. Washington is hopeful that Murphy will be in the lineup on Opening Day, but right now that is very questionable given Murphy has not had any game action since the surgery. He is clearly one of the best offensive second basemen in the league and a valuable fantasy commodity coming off a solid 2017 season in which he hit .322 with 23 home runs, 93 RBI and scored 94 runs. His draft value will slip this season due to the injury, so he could provide great value if you are aggressively patient and select him at the appropriate time.
Zach Britton (RP-BAL)
The Orioles closer suffered a torn Achilles’ tendon in December 2017 and underwent surgery to repair the injury. He is currently recovering and has optimistically targeted a return by May if his rehab and recovery go perfectly without any setbacks. Baltimore will likely be cautious and conservative with their star closer and not rush him back because they will need him healthy in order to compete in the AL East or, in the alternative, showcase him as a potential trade asset. Britton had a dominant 2016 season before being marred by arm injuries in 2017 which limited him to 15 saves in just 38 games. Brad Brach will likely fill in again as closer while Britton works his way back.
Yoenis Cespedes (OF-NYM)
The Mets had a myriad of injuries in 2017 but none were as debilitating to their lineup as the loss of Cespedes who missed half the season due to hamstring injuries. He was shut down early in the season after foolishly coming back too soon from his first hamstring injury, and then he missed the last five weeks of the season after straining his right hamstring in August. Cespedes has developed a reputation for being injury-prone throughout his career as he has only played more than 150 games twice in his six-year career. He is one of the league’s most exciting players and will provide tremendous power and run production when he is in the lineup, but his legs are fragile and he is constantly at risk of missing extended periods of time due to muscle strains.
Miguel Sano (3B-MIN)
The Twins’ power-hitting third baseman is coming off a season where he slugged 28 home runs and drove in 77 runs in only 114 games. He missed just under 50 games due to a stress reaction in his left shin which ultimately required surgery in November and the insertion of a titanium rod into his leg. Minnesota believes he is on track to be ready for Opening Day and they are hopeful he can withstand a full season playing third base. However, fantasy GMs should be concerned about the possibility of Sano facing a suspension as the league investigates sexual assault claims made against him.
Michael Conforto (OF-NYM)
Of all the injuries the Mets sustained in 2017, none seemed as demoralizing as the one Conforto suffered on August 24 when the season was already lost. He sustained a tear of the posterior capsule and dislocation of his left shoulder on a swing and underwent surgery in early September to repair the damage. Conforto was having a terrific season batting .279 with 27 home runs and 68 RBI as he established himself as one of the league’s best young hitters. Now he likely won’t be ready until May and there will be constant concern about whether he can regain his swing due to the injury.
Michael Brantley (OF-CLE)
It has been a disastrous few years for Michael Brantley who once again had off-season surgery and his status for Opening Day is in jeopardy. Brantley had surgery on his right ankle back in October and it was expected to be a 4-5 month recovery period. He was limited to 90 games last year after only playing in 11 games in 2016, so there are legitimate concerns about his durability and issues stemming from both the ankle and shoulder injuries. When healthy, Brantley is a solid fantasy player who doesn’t hit for power but always has a batting average around .300 with good run production and on base percentage.
Michael Fulmer (SP-DET)
The young Tigers ace underwent elbow surgery last September but is expected to be fine for spring training and the start of the season. He has been quite impressive since making his debut for Detroit after coming over in the Yoenis Cespedes trade back in 2015. Fulmer followed up his 2016 Rookie of the Year campaign with a solid effort on a bad Tigers team going 10-12 with a 3.83 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 114 strikeouts in 164.2 innings before being shut down with the elbow injury. He was the subject of trade rumors during the offseason, but instead he remains in Detroit and will be their number one starter.
Adam Eaton (OF-WAS)
Eaton’s 2017 season was over on April 28 when he tore the ACL in his left knee trying to beat out a groundball. He underwent surgery and has rehabbed the entire time since as he prepares for spring training and a return to baseball activities. Dave Martinez, the new Nationals manager, has already anointed Eaton as the team’s leadoff hitter which bodes well for his fantasy value setting the table for the likes of Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy and Ryan Zimmerman. Eaton’s knee will be tested in spring training and all indications are that he will be ready for Opening Day barring any setbacks.
Jimmy Nelson (SP-MIL)
Nelson had a breakout season in 2017 going 12-6 with a 3.49 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 199 strikeouts in 175.1 innings over the course of 29 starts. This marked a tremendous turnaround after going 8-16 with a 4.62 ERA in 2016. He sustained a shoulder injury last September and underwent successful surgery to repair a torn labrum and rotator cuff. Milwaukee’s pitching coach estimated that Nelson should be back by June, but that is just mere speculation. These are not easy injuries to come back from, so fantasy GMs should only be targeting Nelson as a late-round sleeper to possibly contribute something in the second half of the season.
Steven Matz (SP-NYM)
In just a few short years, Matz has become the Troy Tulowitzki of pitchers. He has been plagued by injuries throughout his entire career including all three seasons he has been up with the Mets. There is no doubting his talent and potential, but he just cannot be depended on to take the ball every fifth day. He began the 2017 season on the disabled list and ended it there as well after undergoing season-ending elbow surgery last August. He is coming off a truncated season in which he made 13 starts and went 2-7 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Those numbers do not warrant much confidence heading into 2018 so his draft value should plummet giving GMs an opportunity to buy low in the hopes of a comeback under the tutelage of Mickey Callaway.
Gleyber Torres (SS-NYY)
The highly-touted Yankees prospect underwent Tommy John surgery on his left elbow in June 2017 which ended his season. He has rehabbed and claims to be 100% as he heads into spring training ready to compete for either the second base or third base job with the Bronx Bombers. There is a good chance he will begin the season in the minor leagues but Torres is all but guaranteed to be up with the Yankees at some point early in the season. The injury was to his non-throwing arm so there is no reason to be concerned about his status heading into 2018 as one of the marquee rookies available in drafts.
Dustin Pedroia (2B-BOS)
Pedroia might be the oldest 34-year old in the league after playing hard-nosed baseball for over a decade. He underwent surgery on his left knee back in October and is already making great progress in his attempt to be ready by Opening Day. He was cleared to start running back in January and will be eased slowly back into the mix. Pedroia still provides fantasy value in deep leagues with his solid batting average and run production, but he is a major health risk at this stage of his career and the nagging injuries that seem to plague him almost every year.
David Dahl (OF-COL)
Dahl missed the entire 2017 season due to a stress reaction injury to his rib in spring training which kept him sidelined until July. He started developing some back issues once he began his minor league rehab so the Rockies shut him down for the year. Expectations were high for Dahl heading into last year after he hit .315 with seven home runs and 24 RBI in 63 games for Colorado in 2016. Assuming he stays healthy during spring training, he should get an opportunity to earn a starting outfield job which would bode very well for his fantasy value since he will play 81 games at Coors Field.
Felix Hernandez (SP-SEA)
King Felix has been dethroned as royalty after injuries have piled up over the past couple seasons resulting in mediocre statistics and several stints on the disabled list. He will only turn 32-years old in April, but he has logged over 2,500 innings in his right arm over the course of his 13-year career. All of that wear and tear finally caught up to him as he only started 16 games in 2017 compiling a pedestrian 6-5 record with a 4.36 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 78 strikeouts in 86.2 innings. Hernandez is clearly no longer a top fantasy pitcher and could see extended rest or skipped starts in order to preserve his health in 2018. Despite the King not being an ace, he could provide good fantasy value as a late-round bounce back option for the backend of your pitching rotation.
Mark Melancon (RP-SF)
The Giants 2017 season was a train wreck in all aspects, but they have made several moves this offseason to turn things around quickly. One factor that will weigh heavily in the team’s success is the status of closer Mark Melancon who signed a lucrative free agent contract before last year. He was injured for a majority of the season before succumbing to season-ending surgery on the pronator muscle in his right forearm. The injuries likely played a major role in his disappointing statistics where he only had 11 saves to go along with a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He is expected to be back at full health and begin spring training without any limitations.
Alex Reyes (SP-STL)
Reyes had an impressive debut in 2016 going 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 52 strikeouts over the course of 12 games including five starts and one save. He was likely going to be in the Cardinals’ starting rotation last year but suffered an elbow injury and underwent Tommy John surgery last February. St. Louis is targeting a return by May 1 which makes him a great fantasy option with upside assuming he is able to work his way back into the Cardinals’ rotation.
Troy Tulowitzki (SS-TOR)
The player most synonymous with the disabled list has to be Tulowitzki who has played at least 150 games in a season just twice in his 12-year career. Those two times came back in 2007 and 2009 respectively, but since then he has had three seasons in which he failed to play in 100 games and has missed significant time in every other year. Once regarded as an elite player at a premium position, Tulowitzki is now a punchline for fantasy GMs who ponder what could have been if he had just been able to stay on the field. Now 33-years old, Tulowitzki is nothing more than a late-round flyer at middle infield for GMs hoping to catch lightning in a bottle as he attempts to return from ligament damage in his ankle which ended his 2017 season after only 66 games.
Shelby Miller (SP-ARZ)
Miller had a historically dreadful season in 2016 but appeared to be on the way to rebounding last year before suffering an elbow injury which required Tommy John surgery back in May. He could return at some point during the second half but the chances of him providing any fantasy value are minimal given how far his stock has fallen over the past couple years. There is no reason to draft him this year unless you are in a deep keeper league and want to stash him in the hopes that he rebounds after he becomes a free agent at the end of the season.
Carlos Rodon (SP-CHW)
The young White Sox hurler was supposed to be the cornerstone of the team’s rebuilding process and the foundation of a young pitching staff. Unfortunately, he suffered a shoulder injury in 2017 which required arthroscopic surgery and the chances of him being ready for Opening Day are slim at best. Rodon does have a lot of upside amassing a record of 20-21 with a 3.96 ERA and 383 strikeouts in 373.2 innings over his first three seasons on a terrible team. He is a good candidate to draft late and stash in a DL slot.
Drew Smyly (SP-CHC)
The shrewd Cubs signed Smyly to a reasonable two-year, $10 million contract despite knowing he will miss most of the 2018 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last June. He could return at some point late in the year, but any draft value he has would be only in keeper leagues with an eye towards 2019. Smyly does have upside despite never really putting things together thus far in his career which has spanned stints in Detroit, Tampa Bay and Seattle.