Searching for the best Underdog NFL picks today to close out Week 8? The 5-2 Bears visit the 4-3 Seahawks at Lumen Field on Monday night, with Seattle favored by about three points and the total set at 46.5. Below, we highlight our top Underdog NFL picks for this matchup, along with the player projections and matchup breakdowns behind each selection.
Bears vs. Seahawks: Game Outlook & Key Matchups
D'Andre Swift is Chicago's workhorse with Kyle Monangai out, and Seattle's defense ranks 16th in DVOA against running backs despite being elite against the pass. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold faces pressure behind a Seahawks line missing left tackle Charles Cross. These are the Underdog plays we're targeting for this matchup.
Best Underdog NFL Picks for MNF, Week 8
D'Andre Swift NFL Underdog Pick: Higher 18.5 Receiving Yards
Swift has been Chicago's workhorse with Kyle Monangai out for a fourth straight game, handling a season-high 26 opportunities last week and catching 22 of 26 targets for 152 yards through seven games. He had 26 receiving yards in each of the two games before last week and ranks eighth among running backs in PFF receiving grade at 74.6. Seattle's pass defense ranks second in DVOA and is stingy on explosive plays, but it ranks 16th in DVOA against running backs, which points to checkdowns and short throws as Chicago's most reliable route. Clearing 18.5 receiving yards looks like a good bet for a back with this kind of role.
Sam Darnold NFL Underdog Pick: Lower 1.5 Passing TDs
Darnold has eight touchdown passes in six starts, an average of 1.3 per game, and he has faced the highest pressure rate per dropback in the NFL while also throwing eight interceptions. With left tackle Charles Cross injured and Chicago ranking seventh in DVOA against WR1, the Seahawks figure to lean on their defense and ground game, as they did in a 20-3 win over the Chiefs. The Bears' pass defense ranks 15th in DVOA overall, and with Jeffery Simmons now on the line, Darnold could be under pressure again. Under 1.5 passing touchdowns looks like a good bet.
Underdog NFL Player Projections for Bears vs. Seahawks
Both of these plays lean on the same framework behind Fantasy Alarm's Weekly Player Projections, which generates a projected stat line for every player on the slate by weighing expected pass and rush volume, touchdown probability, and matchup context rather than just last week's box score. That's the same process that pointed us toward Swift and Darnold as our top plays for this game, and it refreshes throughout the week as news, weather, and depth charts shift. Fantasy Alarm All Pro members get the full weekly breakdown for every player in every game, not just the two we're highlighting here. If you want the complete picture behind every Underdog pick we make, upgrading to All Pro is the fastest way to get it.
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