NFL DFS Divisional Round TE Coach: Travis Kelce, Dalton Kincaid, Zach Ertz

Published: Jan 15, 2025
It’s the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. And I don’t mean to alarm anyone here but this is really the last GREAT DFS slate we have left.
Sure, we have a four game slate next week and the Super Bowl showdown. But an eight team slate is the closest we have to, say, the Sunday slates on the weeks with 6 bye weeks (which featured ten games).
NFL DFS Divisional Round TE Coach For FanDuel & DraftKings Fantasy
With everything I said above, it is probably obvious what my point is. We need to cherish every bit of football we have left before the long, dark NFL offseason!
So, let’s get to this week’s NFL DFS tight end picks.
NFL DFS TE Top Tier Pick For Divisional Round
Travis Kelce, TE Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $5,000 | FanDuel: $6,500
This is what happens with SUPER stars. If you don’t maintain your very top spot on the pedestal, folks will overdo it with the criticism. That’s how we can end up in a world where a tight end can catch 97 passes while resting the final game of the season yet still have a negative surrounding them and their performance.
It’s no secret that certain top teams were “holding back” at times (not you, Lions). Josh Allen straight up told reporters there was a balance between winning and “showing too much”. Last year Travis Kelce had 93 catches in 15 games while the Chiefs once again coasted into the playoffs. Then he proceeded to tear faces off, averaging 22.4 points over his four playoff games. This is where I’m going at the top.
NFL DFS TE Mid-Tier Picks For NFL Divisional Round
Zach Ertz, TE Washington Commanders - DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $5,500
Zach Ertz has been the de facto #2 target for the Washington Commanders for the majority of the season. Noah Brown threatened that at one point but he was lost for the season with an injury. Ertz had a down week last week but the Commanders will need him this week if they are going to compete.
A lot of fantasy gamers will be scared off by the matchup with the Lions - especially with Goedert at a similar price with a better matchup. But the Lions might not actually be a bad matchup for Ertz. The Lions play more man to man defense than any team in the league and Ertz has been fairly successful against man because of his great route running.
He’s made 4 of 6 contested catches in man coverage which is better than Travis Kelce’s 4 of 7 and his 5 touchdowns against man coverage actually leads all tight ends. His 10 end zone targets also tie Mark Andrews and David Njoku for the league lead. If they get down to the red zone, asking Ertz to win against man to man is what this team likes to do.
Dalton Kincaid, TE Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $3,700 | FanDuel: $5,400
Every once in a while we need to play the “fade the public” game. On smaller slates like this, you have to try to anticipate who is going to be heavily rostered and who is going to be faded. It also helps when the platforms themselves are publishing negative notes about the players - as they are this week with Dalton Kincaid.
The DraftKings note in particular points out that Dawson Knox has played more snaps than Kincaid in four straight games since he returned from injury. What it doesn’t show is that they have still run a very similar number of routes with Kincaid leading Knox in targets, receptions, and yards - even as he’s eased back in.
In a big time matchup against the Ravens, I don’t expect the Bills to hold anything back here. And, as we mentioned above in the Kelce section, Josh Allen said they’ve been trying not to show too much. That is specifically in preparation for games like this.
NFL DFS TE Value Picks For NFL Divisional Round
Isaiah Likely, TE Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $3,500 | FanDuel: $5,100
This might seem like a boring or obvious pay down to some. And that’s probably because, to some degree, it is. But we can’t ignore that Isaiah Likely often plays more snaps than Mark Andrews and even runs more routes. And that’s especially true if/when Zay Flowers is out.
Likely to me feels like a decent cash game option given his price but I really don’t love either Andrews or Likely as a GPP option where we are shooting for the highest possible upside.
Irv Smith Jr, TE Houston Texans - DraftKings: $2,500 | FanDuel: $4,100
The cheapest tight end you can conceivably throw out there this week is Irv Smith Jr of the Texans. Now, you might say I’m crazy because he literally has no catches this year, but hear me out.
Following the injury to Stefon Diggs, the Texans ramped up their use of two tight end sets. That became even more prevalent with the loss of Tank Dell. Last week, Dalton Schultz played 73% of the snaps while Cade Stover played 49% and Irv Smith Jr played 23%. It’s been reported that Cade Stover actually broke his collarbone against the Chargers and is done for the season after surgery.
With Dalton Schultz himself dealing with a shoulder issue and Teagan Quitoriano not a lock to be activated from IR, we could see Irv thrown into some serious action this week. At the bare minimum price on DraftKings, a couple catches and a random TD would do it.
NFL DFS TE Fades For Divisional Round
Mark Andrews, TE Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $5,000
This one concerns me for a couple of reasons. First off, they did not “unleash” Mark Andrews in the playoffs as some folks had hoped - in fact, he played the second fewest snaps he’s played over the last six games. Even with Zay Flowers out, he played 61% of the snaps with Isaiah Likely playing 80%.
The other concern is that the Bills defense is much better against the tight end with Matt Milano healthy. And, in five games including playoffs, Mark Andrews has never really had much success against them, as you can see below.
Dallas Goedert, TE Philadelphia Eagles - DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $5,000
We are fading this one for a couple reasons here. First, because of the good matchup on paper, it will be popular. But the Rams are honestly a pretty good matchup for anyone - it's like AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Saquon Barkley have “tough matchups” here.
The Eagles historically also really don’t like going to Goedert in the red area despite his size. They prefer the Tush Push or Barkley or AJ Brown. Goedert only has 12 red zone and 4 end zone targets on the season which both rank him outside the top 20 for the position. He hasn’t really been an endzone threat since Carson Wentz/Nick Foles.