Hard to believe it’s already NFL Week 14 but here we go. Crunch-time, baby! If you’re still here and looking for the best survivor pool strategy, it means you’re still alive and probably doing a little freaking out, depending on the size of the pot and how many people are left in your pool. Last week wasn’t the bloodbath I thought we would see even with the losses by the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams, but either few people had those teams left or somebody knew something. There were heavy leans on the Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins in my pool so less than 15-percent of the teams got knocked out. This week might be a different story. The match-ups look a lot less glamorous and our options are dwindling at a rapid rate. Time to look forward though, right? Who do you have left? Let’s get to the top NFL Week 14 survivor picks. We’ve got work to do.

 As always, the best survivor pool strategy isn’t simply about picking the biggest favorite each week; it’s about understanding matchups, managing risk, and planning weeks ahead. Not too many weeks. Just five remaining in the NFL regular season. Sometimes, though, the football gods have a different plan. You can do all the right things, make the best picks and still find yourself on the losing side of things, like what we’ve witnessed several times this season already. We’ll try and help you avoid that as best we can. Those who are still in it are ready to scratch and claw their way to the final weeks, so identifying the best survivor pool strategy can be the key to outlasting the competition and claiming the prize. In this week’s article we'll take you through our process to help you make the most sensible picks to advance to next week and beyond.

 

 

Best NFL Survivor Pool Strategy for 2025 NFL Week 14

When it comes to lining up our top NFL Week 14 survivor picks, our mindset hasn’t changed regarding what the best survivor pool strategy should be. It continues to revolve around the "chalky" plays, if they are still available to you. You should definitely be looking ahead, but we’re still looking at the reliable favorites with the biggest spreads and hopefully, not overexposed in most pools. We prefer to have a home team and, in a lot of cases, avoid divisional matchups and short weeks if we can. Of course, the schedule-makers have a tendency to overload the back-end of the schedule with a lot of divisional match-ups, hoping to increase the drama. That’s great for TV ratings, but not for our survivor pool anxiety levels.

Here in NFL Week 14, the premium examples are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are a nine-point home-favorite over the New Orleans Saints, the Los Angeles Rams who are an eight-point road-favorite over the Arizona Cardinals and the Denver Broncos who are a 7.5-point road-favorite over the Las Vegas Raiders. If you have any of the three available, our friends over at Pool Genius have them listed in their top-10 for the week, but only the Broncos and Rams are in their top-five. Likely because of Baker Mayfield’s shoulder concerns. Keep reading to see who else Pool Genius recommends among their top-five picks this week.

 

 

Dominate Your Survivor Pool with Pool Genius

Back in Week 3, you got a great introduction to Pool Genius and everything they have to offer. It doesn’t matter that it’s Week 14 – there is still an opportunity for you to join and still take advantage of everything they have to offer. If this is your first time hearing about them, please allow me to show you the way, because they have some exciting tools to help you make the right picks. What happens is, you load in all the information about your pool – how many total participants, cost per entry, specific rules to your pool regarding things like repeat picks or buybacks and since we are already here in Week 14, who you’ve taken so far. From there, they analyze all the data and make suggestions as to who to take, so it is a VERY personalized service.

To continue guiding you, I am using all the tools Pool Genius has to offer and making one of my picks based solely off their data and recommendations. The pick I had been tracking in this article series had Arizona in Week 5, so I had to shift gears. As I lost my final pick last week thanks to the Eagles, I am out personally, but still using the tools here to help guide you to a win. I will simply discuss the top few recommended picks overall and from there, you can determine who you want to take each week.

The top Pool Genius recommendations are as follows:

  1. Denver Broncos (at Las Vegas Raiders, 7% popularity)
  2. Green Bay Packers (vs Chicago Bears, 3% popularity)
  3. Baltimore Ravens (vs Pittsburgh Steelers, 3% popularity)
  4. Los Angeles Rams (at Arizona Cardinals, 4% popularity)
  5. Seattle Seahawks (at Atlanta Falcons, 6% popularity)

According to Pool Genius the Buccaneers are actually expected to be the most popular pick this week (51%) as a nine-point home favorite with a -450 money line. It’s pretty apparent as to why with how bad the Saints have looked and that they are also still without Alvin Kamara. Mayfield was serviceable last week, so really, it comes down to the defense. It’s a divisional match-up and people like to avoid that, but beggars can’t be choosers this late in the season. The game that ranks second-highest in popularity is actually the Cleveland Browns who are listed with a 66% win probability as a four-point home-favorite against the Tennessee Titans. Pool Genius lists them as their sixth-favorite this week and while I thought about taking them with my one last pick, I am going to avoid them. There’s just something about investing in Shedeur Sanders that makes me crazy nervous, even though their defense could carry them through this one.

Now before I get to my favorite picks to use, I do want to remind you that Pool Genius is a paid service, but for the Fantasy Alarm #Family, they have some discounts available to you. The data and service they provide has been fantastic thus far and I feel confident using their suggestions. 

Now let’s get to my three favorite options for NFL Week 14.

 

 

NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 14

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos: Pick Denver Broncos

Our friends over at Pool Genius list this one as their favorite this week, despite Denver being on the road and it being a divisional game. Tough to argue against it, though. The Raiders do not look good on either side of the ball. Offensively, Geno Smith is a disaster and the Broncos run defense is strong enough to withstand an Ashton Jeanty run-heavy script. Too many mistakes, too many penalties, you name it, the Raiders are definitely looking ahead to next year.

For the Broncos, they need/want this win if they want to stay atop the AFC and earn that first-round bye. Bo Nix needs a bit of a get-right game to prepare for the final push here late in the season, but I really think the bread and butter for Denver this week is RJ Harvey. The rookie running back has a nice, soft match-up here and could carry this team to victory on his shoulders.

New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Pick Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pool Genius lists this game as their ninth-favorite on the slate, but I’m definitely giving it a bump up for me. Baker Mayfield seemed fine last week with regard to his shoulder and the return of Bucky Irving allows the Bucs to lean a little heavier on the run and take some of the pressure off Mayfield. The 80-percent win probability alongside the -450 money line screams Bucs, doesn’t it?

Not to mention, the Saints are a bit of a mess. Tyler Shough is still making rookie mistakes and there’s no Alvin Kamara to lean on either. No one likes taking a divisional game, but at least the Bucs are at home for this one, right?

Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals: Pick Los Angeles Rams

This one is my third-favorite and the folks at Pool Genius have it as their fourth on the list. I don’t see the Rams being embarrassed two weeks in a row, especially their defense. They haven’t faced the Cardinals yet this season, but I’m still pretty confident, despite them being on the road. I expect Sean McVay to have his team well-prepared for this one.

While Jacoby Brissett has been a revelation for the Cardinals, he also hasn't faced a defense of this caliber. The ground game struggles and even if they get Trey Benson back, who knows how much work he actually gets. They also might be without Marvin Harrison again. They've played well without him in the past, but again, not against a defense like this.

These are the picks in my order of preference this week. Best of luck to you all in your survivor pool contests.Â