Good afternoon, Family! Are you ready for some Sunday Night Football? What better way to end your week than an NFL DFS Showdown on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tonight, we have the highest game total of the entire week as the 8-4 Miami Dolphins visit the 6-6 Los Angeles Chargers in what Vegas expects to be a primetime shootout.  The game has a 53.5-point total with the Dolphins favored by 3.5 as two of the league’s most promising young quarterbacks will square off for the first time since their rookie seasons.  Tua Tagovailoa of Dolphins is surrounded by two of the most exciting receivers in the league – Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle  while the Chargers Justin Herbert has a pretty good receiving room of his own led by legend Keenan Allen and veteran Mike Williams. For tonight’s matchup there is a full rundown of players and suggestions below and you can always take a look at our Weekly Match-Up Report and use NFL DFS Tools like our DFS Lineup Generator (a.k.a. the DFS lineup optimizer). 

 

First, from the words of our fearless leader at Fantasy Alarm, Howard Bender:

Now before we begin, for those who are new to the process, please take a moment to understand what exactly you are getting yourself into by playing single-game Showdown Slates. We love to have some skin in the game, for sure, but these slates are, for all intents and purposes, a lottery ticket. Sure, there are times when the chalk hits, and everyone shares in the prizes, but, often, you need to hit on that random dart throw that differentiates your lineup from that of the herd in order to claim the top prize. As a result, we encourage you to play responsibly and not over-invest. Stick to the GPP contests (single-entry preferred), don’t blow your whole bankroll, and understand that, unless you are a max-entry player, you should prioritize having fun.

OK, now let’s get to tonight’s action.

 

MIAMI DOLPHINS vs LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Spread: Miami Dolphins -3.5

Over/Under: 53.6

 

Weather

SoFi Stadium

  • Temp: 55 degrees
  • Humidity: 79%
  • Precipitation: 20%

 

Notable DFS Injuries

Miami Dolphins

Los Angeles Chargers

 

2022 DVOA Defensive Rankings

Miami Dolphins

  • Vs Pass: 23rd
  • Vs Run: 9th

Los Angeles Chargers

  • Vs. Pass: 16th
  • Vs. Run: 30th

**Please note that players not listed below are not necessarily a complete fade and any player listed can certainly be used as the MVP/Captain. These are merely suggestions for players to use when setting Showdown lineups.

TOP CAPTAIN/MVP

Tyreek Hill – Miami Dolphins WR

Even with a bad offensive performance last week by the Dolphins Hill still had a big day- nine catches for 146 yards and a long touchdown. He now has 129 targets for a 96-1,379 and five TD total on the season. Reek can take any catch to the house at any point in the game and with his massive ceiling is the top overall Captain in all formats.

Tua Tagovailova- Miami Dolphins QB

The general of the most pass-friendly offense in the NFL that has a 28.5 implied total tonight. Should be a bounce back game but Tua is more of a FanDuel MVP play than a DraftKings Captain due to most of his work going to only two receivers – Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Safe floor on all sites though. 

Justin Herbert- Los Angeles Chargers QB

While Tua only has two main options, Herbert can spread the ball around- Keena Allen, Mike Williams, Joshua Palmer and Gerald  Everett. Herbert has a strong floor/ceiling combo running an offense that is now healthy and facing a mediocre Fins pass defense. Due to his various weapons Herbert is better suited as a DraftKings Captain since he can have a huge game without any one or two Chargers receivers going off.

Keenan Allen- Los Angeles Chargers WR

Allen’s affordable price makes him a GPP Captain option tonight. There is always the injury risk, but the veteran is coming off a 14 target game last week, catching six of them for 88 yards and a touchdown. 

Austin Ekeler- Los Angeles Chargers RB

Ekeler is by far the best skill position option on the Chargers. He will get his rushing work and will see plenty of targets giving him a solid floor and ceiling. I am not totally in love with this play, though, since he only played 60% of the snaps last week (Joshua Kelley saw 43%) and the Fins DVOA is 9th against the run.  It’s still a fade at your own risk due to heavy ownership but one that may turn out to be slate-changing in certain game narratives.

Mike Williams- Los Angeles Chargers WR

Williams is a leverage GPP Captain tonight. He is expected to be limited so that would make the veteran under owned but he is also crazy underpriced at only $7.0K on DraftKings. This is his first game pretty much since Week 7 so while the field takes the cautious approach why not take a shot on Big Mike Williams. 

UTILITY

Raheem Mostert – Miami Dolphins RB

I am taking Mostert and the $600 value tonight from Wilson Jr. Both are in play, though, against a Chargers defense that is allowing the third-most DraftKings points per game to RBs (29.0). Last week saw Mostert playing 61% of the snaps and handling seven carries against the 49ers, while Wilson played 37% of the snaps and saw just one carry and two targets.  Both are in play this week due to the Fins run game being an important piece of this matchup but my gut tells me that Mostert may rip off a couple scores before its all over. 

Jaylen Waddle- Miami Dolphins WR

Waddle makes for a fine contrarian play tonight as he cannot be ignored and $2.4K cheaper than Hill. Together they are seeing about 60% of Tua’s pass attempts and Waddle could go overlooked with so many good options around him. We have seen him match Hill’s ceiling this season as Waddle already has 57 catches for 972 yards and six touchdowns. Last week was the least productive game for Waddle on the year as he was held to just one catch by the 49’ers defense but look for him to find his groove tonight against a much worse defense than he saw in his last game.

VALUE

Gerald Everett- Los Angeles Chargers TE

Look for Everett to be popular tonight due to pricing but he will need a touchdown to still pay off that $5K salary. He has seen 65 targets for 43 receptions and 462 yards on the season but has only scored two touchdowns. This could be a fade spot in GPPs.

Jason Sanders- Miami Dolphins K / Cameron Dicker- Los Angeles Chargers K

Both kickers are in play tonight due to the high dollar star power making skill-position value tough to find. Expect Sanders to see plenty of opportunities tonight due to the high team implied total of the Dolphins while Dicker kicks for a team that is ranked 11th in field goals per contest.

Trent Sherfield- Miami Dolphins WR / Josh Palmer- Los Angeles Chargers WR

Both Sherfield and Palmer are the WR3s for their teams but at their price make for decent utility values with high upside. Palmer will be forgotten while most are building lineups tonight, but we cannot forget the Week 11 game against the Chiefs when he smashed for 8-106-2- and both Allen and Williams did also play in that game with Williams getting hurt. 

Alec Ingold- Miami dolphins RB 

These last two plays are total darts but may be needed on this star-studded showdown. First is Ingold who has run a route on 36.1% of Tagovailoa dropbacks and drawn nine targets. He is probably a touchdown or bust but has eight receptions in his last three games and does come in as a check down in play action.

Cedrick Wilson Jr.- Miami Dolphins WR

Wilson Jr will see his role get a boost with River Cracraft doubtful tonight.  Cracraft was playing some wide receiver snaps so Wilson will absorb extra work in an important game giving him a higher ceiling than his $200 tag suggests. 

 

 

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