As part of the two-game slate Monday night we are preparing you with two separate NFL DFS Showdown Playbooks and this one will cover the second game kicking off at 8:15pm ET. The Cincinnati Bengals head West to take on the Denver Broncos. Both organizations have AFC playoff aspirations. The Bengals sit at 2-1 and look to tread water until December when Joe Burrow could possibly return. The Broncos have dropped back-to-back games and haven’t quite lived up to the hype after going 10-7 in Bo Nix’s rookie season. It may only be Week 4, but this matchup feels like it has playoff implications before we even get to October. Let’s take a look at the top NFL DFS picks for Game 2 of Monday Night Football’s doubleheader!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Bengals vs. Broncos Game Preview

At the beginning of the season, this matchup definitely looked like an exciting one, especially for a doubleheader on Monday Night Football. This two-game slate features three really bad defenses and one great one. The Broncos enter this matchup top 10 in defensive EPA/DB and they’re top five in several blitz and pass rush metrics.

That weighs heavily when we consider the issues the defense the Bengals just ran into last week. The Minnesota Vikings blitz at an elite level and they did not give the Bengals offense a chance in Week 3. Now the Bengals go on the road and play at elevation against another elite defense with a great pass rush, and one of the best defensive backs in the NFL.

The Broncos are the biggest favorite on this two-game slate. The first game has an implied total of 45.5 points and the Dolphins are favored slightly by 2.5 points as of Monday morning. This second game sees the Broncos as big 7.5-point home favorites and the total is sitting at 44.5 points. Cincinnati carries an 18.5-point implied team total, while the Broncos are projected for 26 points.

These two games don’t exactly offer the most elite quarterback play we’ll ever see but I’m cautiously optimistic we see some competitive games similar to Sunday Night Football’s 40-40 tie between the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys. Take some risks with these games as ownership becomes very consolidated on a two-game slate. Let’s dig into the NFL DFS picks for Game 2 of Monday Night Football!

 

 

 

Bengals vs. Broncos Notable Injuries & Inactives

The Cincinnati Bengals have ruled out Noah Fant on offense as he didn’t practice all week due to a concussion. On the defensive side they ruled out Shemar Stewart who is dealing with an ankle injury. We can expect a few more inactives 90 minutes before kickoff tonight but no other player is carrying a questionable tag as of Monday morning.

The Denver Broncos have not yet ruled anyone out for this game, but Marvin Mims is the only player currently listed as questionable with a hip injury. Again, be on the lookout for any other surprise inactives 90 minutes prior to kickoff.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 9/29

Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $14,200

Ja’Marr is the most expensive player on the slate and arguably the best overall player on the board. You can easily play him in Cincinnati stacks or full game stacks for the two-game slate. I’m a little worried about this play for the Showdown slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. I didn’t initially have him in the Captain section but when considering all the options for this game, it’s hard to really leave him out of here.

Last week was a demoralizing blowout loss to the Minnesota Vikings and at a certain point, the Bengals just wanted to get out of the game unscathed. The 9.9 fantasy points he put up on DraftKings weren’t indicative of what we should expect with Jake Browning as his quarterback. In Week 2, when Browning came in for Joe Burrow, Chase had a 34.4% target share with Browning and 128 of his 165 receiving yards in that game came from Browning.

But he’s due to be shadowed by Pat Surtain II which isn’t necessarily so bad. These two teams met in Week 17 last year where Surtain shadowed Chase on 43 of his 56 routes. Chase still managed to catch 9 passes for 102 yards, but that was with Joe Burrow under center.

Chase is certainly talented enough to be played at Captain but the shadow coverage against the best defensive back in the NFL raises some red flags so a good way to get different for the Showdown slate would be to go underweight with Chase at Captain. Overall, you can’t completely fade him on either slate.

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $12,400

Bo Nix and the Broncos have been pretty disappointing as they’ve dropped back-to-back games. Nix has five touchdown passes through three games, but he’s also turned it over four times as well and he’s averaging just 178.3 passing yards per game.

If there’s one defense you can play quarterbacks against with some confidence, it’s probably Cincinnati. The secondary is terrible and through three weeks this defense is dead last in blitz rate (6.6%) so Nix should have time to throw and potentially run a little in this game.

Despite last week’s blowout, Carson Wentz only needed 20 pass attempts to rack up 173 yards and two touchdowns against this defense. Previously Trevor Lawrence threw for 271 yards against in Week 2 and Joe Flacco even threw for 290 in Week 1. I’m feeling pretty good about going over on Nix’s passing yards line (currently 219.5) for my DraftKings Pick6 tickets and he may be the safest quarterback option available to us on the two-game slate.

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $10,400

Sutton provides a strong floor and against this weak secondary he could post a stat line similar to last week when he went for over 100 receiving yards against the Chargers. Through three games he’s seen at least eight targets in two of them. We just touched on how bad this Bengals secondary is and the success the quarterback position has against them. Naturally, that does correlate to the receivers as well.

Sutton seems like a relatively safe bet for 50+ receiving yards in this matchup while most of his prop lines are set right around 64.5 but this is a spot he can go over on both. And he’s one of Nix’s biggest targets when the team gets in the red zone. Given the matchup and quarterback situation with Ja'Marr Chase, it’s possible that Sutton emerges as the receiver with the most yardage in this game.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $9,200

Dobbins has been nothing short of consistent through three games. Seriously, in Week 1 he posted 14.8 PPR points, in Week 2 he provided 15.5 points, and then last week he gave us 15.3 points. Now obviously those aren’t great numbers for a Captain. So he’s a great Flex play and a reliable option on this two-game slate if you opt not to play him at the top of your Showdown lineups.

Dobbins is consistently seeing two targets each week and has found the end zone in each of Denver’s first three games. The Bengals aren’t exactly an immovable force on defense against opposing running backs. They give up production on the ground and through the air as we’ve seen so far. Dylan Sampson had eight receptions for 64 yards in Week 1. The Jaguars running backs racked up 126 rushing yards and both Bhayshul Tuten and Travis Etienne recorded receiving touchdowns against Cincy in Week 2. And who could forget Jordan Mason rushing for 116 yards and a pair of touchdowns against this team a week ago?

Dobbins may lack the upside of those players, but this is a matchup where he can pop and the Broncos seem committed to giving him a minimum of 12 touches every week.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Jake Browning, QB, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $14,200

If you’ll recall from the other NFL DFS Showdown Playbook for this two-game slate, Tua Tagovailoa made the Playbook simply because quarterbacks have such a safe floor for shorter slates. It’s not that he nor Browning are great plays, but rather the argument is more geared towards “Well, what else is there?”

Browning was good in relief in Week 2 but awful last week. If he can deliver 16-20 fantasy points like he did two weeks ago then that’s perfect and likely means his pass catchers are putting up good numbers as well.

The Bengals offensive line is atrocious and the Vikings blitz at a high rate. But the Broncos are no different. Entering Week 3 the Broncos are top five in pressure rate (44.0%), sack rate (9.6%), blitz rate (40.0%), non-blitz pressure rate (48.0%), and pass rush win rate (48.0%). I’ve already highlighted my concerns with Ja'Marr Chase in this matchup and this applies to Browning as well. He’s thrown five interceptions in less than two games and this could be a brutal matchup for him later this evening. But at the end of the day, he correlates well and is a key piece for Cincinnati/game stacks.

Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $12,000

I received some questions throughout the week about players like Tahj Brooks and Samaje Perine as potential waiver wire pickups and start/sit options. The truth is that at the start of each game, this backfield belongs to Chase Brown even though he’s been dreadful through three games.

The loss of Joe Burrow certainly isn’t going to help his case as defenses can now stack the box to stop the run. Brown has only totaled 93 rushing yards through three games and 43 receiving yards. But he’s still seeing 67% of the running back snaps. He was pulled early from last week’s game because the Bengals had no chance to win it, so why risk him getting hurt?

This is a formidable defense, but they can be beaten on the ground. Both Jonathan Taylor and Omarion Hampton have found success on the ground against this Broncos run defense. Chase has a lot of work to do but he’s certainly talented enough to have a big game. But the production so far is cause for concern.

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $9,000

Higgins had a brutal showing last week for fantasy purposes but in general, everybody was lackluster on the Cincinnati side. Higgins managed just one catch for 15 yards on two targets which makes sense if you’ll recall the general attention Browning gave to Chase in Week 2. He may just feel a need to keep the team’s WR1 happy with heavy volume.

There’s no doubt about it, any production that comes from Cincinnati’s pass catchers will likely come after the catch. In the argument for Higgins, he at least won’t be shadowed by Surtain too much in this matchup. When these teams met in Week 17 last year, Higgins was not shadowed by Surtain (and Burrow was also playing), and Tee went off for 11 catches on 12 targets for 131 yards and three touchdowns.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Troy Franklin, WR, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $7,400

It’s always hard to trust any young skill position player in a Sean Payton offense. It’s part of why we’re all on pins and needles each week with RJ Harvey. Against the Colts in Week 2, Franklin popped for eight receptions on nine targets for 89 yards and a score. He also added a carry for 11 yards. He did that on 27 routes which led the team.

Last week he regressed to two receptions on four targets for just eight yards. That sounds typical of what to expect from Payton, right? Well Franklin did still run 28 routes, which tied for the team lead. So the production wasn’t there, but Franklin was still on the field.

Franklin has back-to-back games with 90+% route participation and the Broncos rank 5th in PROE (pass rate over expected). He’s still on the field and the matchup is perfect for a bounce back from Franklin. If the rest of the field sours on him because of last week’s box score, then perhaps we go overweight here and for Showdowns I think there’s an argument to be made for some Captain exposure.

Evan Engram, TE, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $4,800

Engram missed last week’s game with a back injury, but he’s poised to play him this matchup Monday night. Engram wasn’t great in Weeks 1 and 2, but Joe Lombardi recently said they look forward to getting Engram going real soon. Could that happen in Week 4? It’s entirely possible.

This deep into the article, we’ve touched on how bad the Bengals defense is. Believe it or not, they’re also terrible against the tight end position. In Week 1, Harold Fannin and David Njoku combined for 10 catches and 100 receiving yards. Last week both T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver both found the end zone.

It’s hard to tell how involved Engram will be and if they want to ease him into a healthy amount of routes and targets. But the price is good enough where we can get exposure and hope for a touchdown.

Marvin Mims, WR, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $3,600 | FanDuel: $5,200

Mims is currently questionable for this game with a hip injury after practicing in full on Thursday and Friday so the late designation is somewhat concerning. But if he is active and he’s on the field then he has the ability to make explosive plays even if the touch distribution isn’t necessarily in his favor.

It’s a bit frustrating how Sean Payton utilizes young players. Mims is a former second round draft with who has made big plays, but Payton has been giving more routes to Troy Franklin. The same argument can be made for RJ Harvey. We have two young players that are just struggling to get enough work.

But if Mims is active he’s playable on both slates. The late questionable designation may even lower ownership a bit. To give a reminder of this kid’s upside, when these two teams met in Week 17 last year, he caught all eight of his targets for 103 yards and a pair of touchdowns. In fact, Mims closed out the season with four touchdowns in Weeks 17 and 18 so it’s incredibly frustrating that he only has 10 targets through three games.

Mike Gesicki, TE, Cincinnati Bengals – DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $3,600

Gesicki’s production from a year ago is way down and that’s easily due to Joe Burrow’s absence. He’s caught 5-of-10 targets for a grand total of 38 yards and he’s yet to find the end zone. The addition of Noah Fant has cut into his production a little bit, but the good news for Gesicki is that Fant has been ruled out for this game.

We haven’t seen opposing tight ends pop for huge games against Denver so far. Denver’s pass rush is elite and that tends to draw quick targets over the middle to the tight end position. Tyler Warren and Mo Alie-Cox combined for eight targets against Denver in Week 2. The Chargers tight ends saw 10 targets last week against this defense. The overall production isn’t there for Gesicki and it may not come to fruition in this particular matchup. But tight ends are getting more looks against the Broncos and we know Denver’s secondary will be keying in on Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins while Chase Brown will require some attention as well.

 

 

 

Bengals vs. Broncos DFS Player Pool, 9/29

Player Pool

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