This week’s Sunday Night Football DFS action centers around the Detroit Lions heading to pay the Kansas City Chiefs a visit in a potential primetime classic. The Lions are proving to the league their Week 1 loss was a bit of a fluke while the Chiefs aim to keep their heads above water and get to 3-3 with Rashee Rice eligible to return next week. This game is not short of star players and we have some great offensive minds ready to put on a showcase. Let’s take a look at this week’s Sunday Night Football DFS Playbook with our Lions vs. Chiefs DFS picks!

 

 

 

Lions vs. Chiefs DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 10/12

Sunday Night Football delivers a potential Super Bowl preview with the only implied total on slate north of 50 points. I say “potential” Super Bowl preview because the Chiefs may find themselves in a pretty deep hole if they fall to 2-4 after this matchup even with Rashee Rice set to return in Week 7.

With the Chiefs taking a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football, they fall to 2-3. Yes, they can still win the AFC West as the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos are both 3-2. As it stands right now, the Chiefs rest-of-season schedule grade is a 0.525 which is the 12th most difficult schedule in the league. The remaining matchups include the Detroit Lions (hence why you’re reading this article), the Buffalo Bills, the Indianapolis Colts, the Washington Commanders, the Chargers (again), and the Broncos (twice). Their “easier” remaining games are the Tennessee Titans, Las Vegas Raiders (twice), and Houston Texans. So it stands to reason that last week’s game was arguably a must-win matchup.

Now it’s not all doom and gloom. This team can go on a run even if they have to run through a gauntlet and they are lucky the Baltimore Ravens look like a shell of their former selves. With Rice coming back in Week 7, Patrick Mahomes gets arguably his most reliable pass catcher, but just not for this game.

The Lions enter this matchup on a four-game winning streak after dropping their first game of the season to the Green Bay Packers. They’re now back in the driver’s seat in the NFC North. The Lions lead the league in points per game (34.8) and they’re 6th in yards per game (365).

As the Chiefs look to host the Lions this week, we’re looking at a potential shootout on Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs rank 2nd in drives that reach the red zone (43%) while the Lions are tied for 3rd (42%) with the Bills. The Chiefs rank 11th in total explosive play rate (10.2%) and passing explosive play rate (8.3%). The Lions rank 8th in rushing explosive play rate (2.6%) so we should see offensive output and hopefully a back-and-forth barn burner for our SNF DFS picks!

 

 

 

Lions vs. Chiefs SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Lions +2.5 (-115)
    • Chiefs -2.5 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Lions (+110)
    • Chiefs (-130)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 52.5 (-112)
    • Under 52.5 (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Lions +2.5 (-110)
    • Chiefs -2.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Lions (+122)
    • Chiefs (-144)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 52.5 (-110)
    • Under 52.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Lions vs. Chiefs SNF, October 12th

The early forecast is showing that it could be rather warm for this Sunday Night Football matchup at Arrowhead. Temperatures will be in the high 70’s/low 80’s around kickoff with low humidity and it looks like the skies will be pretty clear. The more aggressive winds will be in the afternoon, but they should calm down later into the evening and fail to exceed 10 miles per hour.

 

Lions vs. Chiefs Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 6

The visiting Detroit Lions are limping on defense coming into this matchup. The good news is that star receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown, does not carry an injury designation after he popped up on the injury report earlier in the week with a wrist injury. Defensively they’re in a world of hurt. They placed DJ Reed on IR prior to Week 5. And for this matchup they’ll be without Terrion Arnold and Alim McNeill. But additionally, the secondary could be without Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph, and Avonte Maddox while Taylor Decker didn’t practice at all for the Lions and he would be a huge loss for the offensive line.

The Kansas City Chiefs come in with much better circumstances. Despite it being a short week, they aren’t hurting as badly at any position and they posted a pretty clean injury report on Friday with no designations.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $12,800

Gibbs was on everybody’s radar ahead of last week’s matchup, but it was David Montgomery who had the better fantasy football performance in Week 5. Gibbs was still fine as he found the end zone, but the homecoming narrative for Montgomery made him a more appealing option in tournaments in addition to pricing.

This week, the game environment likely benefits Gibbs more. Gibbs has five touchdowns in his last four games with 20 total receptions through five games. Granted, half of those came in Week 1 in a negative game script against Green Bay.

But Gibbs still carries heavy involvement and should definitely see 15+ touches in this matchup. He’s flirted with the 100-yard bonus in a couple games and the Lions rank 10th in yards before contact per carry (1.33). The Kansas City run defense ranks 29th in EPA/Rush (0.06), 26th in rush success rate (46.2%), and they’re 31st in run stop win rate (25%). This is a defense you can run on and running backs have had success. Gibbs is arguably matchup proof in a PPR format and this is a game where he’ll see volume, likely catch multiple passes, and he has a good shot at finding the end zone.

David Montgomery is definitely in play for this game as well, as he is most weeks next to Gibbs. He has four rushing touchdowns (and a passing touchdown) in his last four games, but if I had to pick one for this matchup it’s definitely Gibbs. But Montgomery provides a solid discount and exposure to Detroit’s rushing attack.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions - DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $13,000

St. Brown is on an absolute roll of late. The first game of the season was a dud. That was the case for all of the Detroit Lions against the Green Bay Packers. Over his last four games he’s caught 31 receptions on 35(!) targets with SIX touchdowns and 362 receiving yards.

We know he’s going to be fed regardless of the matchup. He and Gibbs are volume hogs and the safest options on the board for Detroit. ARSB has 25 receptions that have gone for a first down this year and that trails only Puka Nacua, who has 31.

He moves all over the field so while he’ll draw occasional coverage from Trent McDuffie, it does feel as if he won’t be followed into the slot too often. He’s a reception machine with upside for the 100-yard bonus so we can confidently play him at Captain on any Showdown slate.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

It feels like a must-win game for Mahomes and Co. If that’s the case, then I like him to go above and beyond to do what’s necessary to win. He does have four games this year with only one touchdown pass. And he’s only registered the 300-yard bonus once on DraftKings. But he’s running more and that’s really elevating his value. He’s rushed for 55+ yards and a touchdown in three-of-five games this year and he’s posted 23+ fantasy points on DraftKings four times already.

Mahomes enters Week 6 ranking 11th in EPA/Play (0.19), 8th in success rate (52.4%), and the big one is that he’s 2nd among qualified quarterbacks in average depth of target (8.6), so not only is he offering more rushing upside but he’s taking deeper shots than most quarterbacks in the league.

Last week’s loss was tough. And by no means are the Chiefs eliminated from the playoffs if they lose this game. But Mahomes knows this game is still weighted heavily and he’ll do all that he can to keep the Chiefs in contention.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $10,000

It’s a slate full of solid Captain candidates. But Worthy is my lone recommendation where I’m not completely sold. But at the same time, I love this game environment and the matchup.

The Lions placed DJ Reed on IR following Week 4 and they’ll also be without Terrion Arnold in this game as well. The secondary is already in shambles and it’s looking a lot like last year when injuries mounted up on the defensive side of the ball for the Lions. This is a huge upgrade to every pass catcher on the Chiefs, but I’m highlighting Worthy because a big game seems imminent after seeing 17 targets in two games since returning from injury and the team even designs some runs for him as well.

The Lions have already allowed seven touchdowns to opposing receivers and the third-most fantasy points to perimeter receivers so Kansas City’s WR1 is in line to be fed.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $12,200

Goff can work as a Captain option, but I simply prefer him in the flex. He needs a stat line similar to what he did in Week 2 against the Chicago Bears where he registered the 300-yard bonus and five touchdown passes. He also doesn’t carry significant rushing upside.

So he works well as a Flex option and he correlates incredibly well with any of his pass catchers at Captain. Goff ranks 5th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/Play (0.30), 5th in success rate (55.2%), and he’s 2nd(!) in completion percentage over expected (11.0%). The Lions offensive line has been just fine as Goff has only been sacked eight times through five games, and all eight of those sacks were split evenly in their matchups against the Green Bay Packers (Week 1) and Cincinnati Bengals (Week 5).

Volume is a mild concern for Goff because he has just one game all year where he attempted over 30 pass attempts and that came in Week 1 when the Lions were playing from behind against Green Bay. He’s still good at distributing the ball and finding his top pass catchers but if the Lions end up with a comfortable lead at any point, they may lean more on the run.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $8,600

It does pain me to put Kelce in here as a core play because when you just consider the eyeball test, he is far from the player he used to be. But he still receives consistent targets and Andy Reid tries to get him involved week in and week out.

The floor is arguably why I’m putting him in this section over the likes of Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery, and Jameson Williams. Their box scores and fantasy numbers vary from week to week and Kelce is a bit more consistent. Kelce has two touchdowns on the year and is regularly looked at in the red zone. And when you bake in all the injuries to Detroit’s secondary, I’m feeling a little better about Kelce heading into this matchup.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Play

Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $7,200

LaPorta is coming off his best game of the season after he found the end zone for the first time this year in addition to catching five-of-six targets for 92 yards. The downside heading into Week 6 is that this is a pretty bad matchup. The Chiefs have only surrendered a little over 160 receiving yards to opposing tight ends and not a single tight end has found the end zone against KC’s defense.

LaPorta is a big target but we just touched on Goff’s lack of passing volume and a lot of those targets funnel to ARSB. I lack confidence in this play especially since he’s seen less than five targets in a game three times already this year. There is still some appeal for a red zone target or two and he’s currently 5th in receiving yards among tight ends. But this definitely doesn’t feel like the kind of game where his fantasy football ceiling will be on display.

Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $7,800

It’s hard to get excited about Williams nowadays. And his usage is truly wild. The Lions gave him a nice big contract extension prior to the season and he has a total of 11 receptions through five games. And he’s only seen 21 targets including just one last week against the Cincinnati Bengals.

He’s still a deep threat and has big play upside because he’s averaging just over 20 yards per catch. But over his last three games he has a total of just five receptions for 92 yards.

He will likely see some coverage from Trent McDuffie on the perimeter and that isn’t the greatest matchup for him if we’re being honest. But the price on Jamo is dropping and this is a game environment where he’ll be called on for big plays. I would definitely be looking to play Williams in this matchup over LaPorta.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Hollywood Brown, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $5,800

Brown has been fine in the absence of Rashee Rice, but the writing is on the wall. For our SNF DFS picks, I love the price tag and this game environment. This is the cheapest he’s been on any Showdown slate for the Chiefs this year and it comes in what feels like is a must win game for Kansas City.

He’s seen at least five targets in each of the team’s first five games this year. Even last week he only caught four-of-eight targets for 48 yards. And that was one of the sloppiest games we’ll ever see from the Chiefs. Do we think they do that two weeks in a row? I don’t think so.

I do think the Chiefs play from behind in this matchup and Brown runs enough routes to justify using him at this price tag. He’s returned at least eight fantasy points in every game this season and the defense may be more focused on Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton who has emerged as a deep threat for Mahomes. Sign me up for Hollywood Brown at a sub-$6K price tag on DraftKings against a beat up secondary.

Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $4,600 | FanDuel: $5,400

I absolutely hated this play for last week’s Monday Night Football DFS Playbook. He did exactly what I was hoping he wouldn’t do. He only had eight total touches but found the end zone twice from inside the five-yard line.

He had one big run early in the first half that went for 33 yards. But across his other six carries he only totaled 16 yards, so the Chiefs are exclusively using him in short yardage scenarios. So I’ll include him for this write-up because the implied game total is high and you have to imagine the Chiefs make multiple trips inside the red zone and he could once again pay off with a cheap touchdown or two.

It’s also worth mentioning Isiah Pacheco who is absolutely dirt cheap for this game. He’s a flat $4,000 for this matchup on DraftKings after he was $6,200 on Monday night against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I feel better about Pacheco seeing more volume than Hunt but Hunt clearly has more touchdown equity with the short yardage work.

And while we’re at it, let’s touch on Brashard Smith. He won’t see as many touches as Pacheco. Nor will he steal the goal line work from Kareem Hunt. Pacheco played 40 snaps last week. Hunt played 21. And Smith only played six. However, despite the minimal snap count, he’s getting targets out of the backfield. He has back-to-back games with three receptions. Do I wish he was cheaper than $3,000 on DraftKings? Absolutely, but he’s proving he can catch passes out of this backfield and this is a game environment perfect for a running back with his skills.

Tyquan Thornton, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $5,000

It sort of feels like it’s last call with some of Kansas City’s cheaper pass catchers. Thornton has arguably done more to maintain a role in this offense than Hollywood Brown. And while his touchdown streak ended last week at three games, he still had three catches in Week 5 and they all went for 20+ yards.

He’s a nice vertical threat for the KC offense. You can make the argument he’s the Chiefs’ cheaper version of Jameson Williams. He’s a volatile player but Showdown slates are where we lean into volatility because we know this team will need to throw more to keep pace and big plays to Thornton could be on the menu Sunday night.

Isaac Teslaa, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $3,800

We need a cheap option from the Lions. The Chiefs have a lot of value plays that I like this week that we’ve already touched on. If you don’t like Teslaa’s volume then you can pivot to JuJu Smith-Schuster, who will likely see more targets than Teslaa. But again, I want to throw in and highlight a value option for Detroit.

Teslaa’s usage is low. He’s maybe the fifth pass catching option on this offense and that’s me being overly optimistic. Realistically he’s more like sixth or seventh on the pecking order. But when he is on the field, he’s typically getting a look in the end zone. He only has three receptions this year but two have been touchdowns, and this kid looked great in preseason action.

It’s a huge gamble and the price tag is hard to justify. But this should be an up-tempo game with production to go around so I do think he’s worth some consideration, but Smith-Schuster is easily the safer play on the other sideline.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

With an implied game total sitting at 52.5 points as of Saturday morning, we’re obviously more inclined to target the kickers than the D/ST’s. And the logic is sound. The kickers can’t really lose points at the rate the defenses can unless they’re missing historic levels of field goal attempts.

Both D/ST’s are incredibly affordable as they’re priced below $4,000 on DraftKings. Let’s touch on the Chiefs first. They’ve forced at least two turnovers in three straight games and opposing quarterbacks haven’t had much success throwing the ball of late. The Chiefs have given up just 162.25 passing yards per game since Week 2. But you can run on this defense as they’ve given up 131.75 rushing yards per game in that same span.

Jared Goff has only been sacked eight times this year and in three games he hasn’t been sacked at all. That could be tough for Kansas City. However, the Lions are somewhat “middle of the road” in pass protection as they rank 16th in pressure rate allowed (31.4%) and 13th in pass block win rate (62%). The Chiefs boast a pretty decent pass rush with multiple sacks in every game this year. They’re only 8th in blitz rate (29.6%) but 1st in pressure rate (46.4%).

The Chiefs offensive line hasn’t given up much pressure, but that’s because Mahomes trusts his instincts more than most quarterbacks and escapes the pocket a decent amount. While Kansas City ranks 19th in pass block win rate (59%) they’re 3rd in pressure rate allowed (25.9%) and Mahomes has only been sacked seven times this year. The Lions pass rush ranks 13th in blitz rate (27.0%), 12th in pressure rate (37.3%), but they’re 3rd in sack rate (8.6%) with all 16 of their sacks coming in their last four games.

So again, while this game is clearly projecting for offense, I don’t want to completely disregard the D/ST’s. If they were both above $4,000 I’d feel differently. But the pricing on DraftKings is what is keeping them in play because there’s big play potential on defense for both organizations. But we should be mindful of all the injuries to Detroit’s secondary.

The kickers are obviously in play for this matchup. With an implied total over 50 points there will be scoring and it’ll be a nice blend of touchdowns and field goal attempts. Funny enough, neither of these kickers (Jake Bates and Harrison Butker) were credited with a field goal attempt last week so dare I say we have some positive FGA regression for both in this matchup?

Butker has three games this year with at least three field goal attempts. Bates doesn’t have any games this season with at least three FGA’s, and he’s also missed two attempts as well. But with both teams making it into the red zone on over 40% of their offensive drives, I’m expecting to find some production between these two so both kickers are firmly in play for our Lions vs. Chiefs DFS picks.

 

 

 

Lions vs. Chiefs DFS Player Pool: SNF, 10/12

Player Pool

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Stacks

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