Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is off and running as the NFL continues to expand its reach around the globe and for the second straight year, the NFL heads to South America for a game in Sao Paulo, Brazil. In the first game in Brazil a year ago the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles delivered a massive game with 63 points and big performances from the star players. Can the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers live up to the hype and give Brazil another electric game? Let’s take a look at the top Friday Night Football DFS picks for our contests on DraftKings and FanDuel!

 

 

 

Chiefs vs. Chargers DFS Picks & Preview: Friday Night Football, 9/5

We started the new season with a matchup from the NFC East and now we get an AFC West tilt to keep the momentum rolling. Both the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers are coming off playoff appearances with the Chiefs having made the Super Bowl last season but they were unable to make it three straight championships as they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles. The AFC has run through the Chiefs for quite a few years now but other teams are looking to dethrone them. Even the Los Angeles Chargers are poised to make a run at the division crown.

The Chiefs return plenty of exceptional pieces from last year’s team. They still have Patrick Mahomes running the offense and Travis Kelce returns on the final year of his contract. Not everything is all sunshine and rainbows for the defending AFC champs as Rashee Rice, who is set to return from injury this year, is suspended for the first six games. So that definitely opens the door for some other players to step up in his absence.

The Los Angeles Chargers made strides last year after some disappointing seasons with Brandon Staley as head coach. More importantly, they made the playoffs in Jim Harbaugh’s first season. They return Justin Herbert but more importantly drafted Omarion Hampton and Tre’ Harris while Keenan Allen returns after a one-year sabbatical in Chicago. The team re-signed Rashawn Slater to a massive contract as he’s one of the best left tackles in the league. And less than two weeks later he tore his patellar tendon and is due to miss the season. The injury bug just refuses to give the Chargers a break.

As division rivals, these two teams met twice last year and the Chiefs won both matchups despite neither game resulting in a shootout. Combine that with the fact that nearly 60% of Week 1 games have gone under over the past four years and I’m thinking we could be due for a low-scoring affair. But let’s dissect the slate and find the top FNF DFS picks for Week 1’s matchup between the Chiefs and Chargers!

 

 

 

Chiefs vs. Chargers FNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Chiefs -3 (-115)
    • Chargers +3 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Chiefs (-166)
    • Chargers (+140)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 46.5 (-110)
    • Under 46.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Chiefs -3 (-115)
    • Chargers +3 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Chiefs (-168)
    • Chargers (+142)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 46.5 (-110)
    • Under 46.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Chiefs vs. Chargers FNF, September 5th

Temperatures will be in the low 60’s Friday night in Sao Paulo with winds not exceeding 10 miles per hour. There is no rain in the forecast.

 

Chiefs vs. Chargers Injuries: Friday Night Football Week 1

The only noteworthy injury decision for the Chiefs was made earlier this week. Rookie wide receiver Jalen Royals was declared out with a knee injury so we won’t yet see him make his NFL debut.

The Chargers only listed two players (Najee Harris and Elijah Molden) on the injury report earlier this week. Harris has been a man of mystery at training camp this year after an unfortunate eye injury over the 4th of July. He didn’t see much action in training camp but he is active for Friday’s game.

Be sure to check our Fantasy Football NFL Discord channels for any updates including inactives for Friday night’s matchup.

 

 

 

NFL Friday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers - DraftKings: $10,600

Ladd McConkey enters his 2025 sophomore campaign with very little competition as the WR1 for the Bolts. In his rookie season he tallied 91 receptions on 126 targets for 1,300+ yards and eight touchdowns. He then went and dropped nine receptions on 14 targets for 197 yards and a touchdown in a playoff loss to the Houston Texans.

The Chargers still want to identify as a run-heavy offense but there’s no denying that Ladd has tremendous upside. Over the final eight games last year (including the playoffs), McConkey had a 26.4% target share, a 36.6% first read target share, 0.134 first downs per route run, and 3.26 yards per route run. To hype him up even more, he led ALL receivers with at least 225 slot routes in average separation score according to Fantasy Points Data.

McConkey only suited up once against the Chiefs last year way back in Week 4. He was unfortunately inactive during the Week 14 rematch on Sunday Night Football and that was in the midst of his incredible run to finish the season. It’s possible McConkey draws most coverage from Trent McDuffie who offered some high praise for the Chargers receiver, but you can play McConkey with confidence that he’ll get plenty of looks from Justin Herbert.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $10,000

If you read the NFL DFS Showdown Playbook for Thursday’s matchup you’ll have noticed that I offered a little insight into the quarterback position at Captain for these one-game slates. Basically the quarterback position was rostered at Captain in 21.7% of Showdown lineups on DraftKings last year but only appeared in the top 1% of tournament lineups at a 13.7% rate. This data comes from Cody Main (@cmain7 on X) who does some amazing deep dives into NFL DFS lineup construction, specifically for Showdown slates.

Now I normally want to reserve quarterbacks at Captain for players that show a willingness to run. This slate has two starting QB’s who can run but they historically haven’t done so like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or even Jalen Hurts. Mahomes possesses great pocket awareness though. He senses when it’s collapsing and is capable of scrambling for a first down. He does just enough with his legs to keep drives alive. It’s rare you see him break off for a big run.

I mention this only because this is a game where he could run more. Per OurLads, the Chiefs depth chart as of Wednesday morning listed Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and JuJu Smith-Schuster as the starting wide receivers for Kansas City. That’s because Rashee Rice is serving a six-game suspension and rookie wideout Jalen Royals has already been ruled out. The receiving room is serviceable but Mahomes could be asked to do a little more to create his own plays in order for the Chiefs to avoid starting the season 0-1.

Mahomes wasn’t great against the Chargers in 2024. They had his number but he managed to compete roughly 65% of his pass attempts for 455 yards combined and two touchdowns. But that’s a two-game sample size for a former NFL MVP. Mahomes did get off to a slow start in fantasy football last year with seven straight starts under 20 fantasy points. But from Week 9 through the Super Bowl he returned at least 23 fantasy points on six occasions. That’s the kind of performance we’ll possibly need from Mahomes for him to be optimal at Captain Friday night.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $9,000

We just touched on the consolidated receiver room for the Chiefs and Worthy looks to lead the way for Kansas City on Friday. Worthy was a bit of a late bloomer in his 2024 rookie campaign but he came on strong to finish the year once Rice’s season ended due to injury.

According to Fantasy Points Data, over his last 10 games Worthy saw 75 targets (Travis Kelce only saw 73) and he turned those into 58 receptions, 679 yards, and six touchdowns. 37% of Worthy’s routes in 2024 were vertical routes so there’s a strong chance Mahomes takes a deep shot or two with him.

When these two teams met in Week 4 last year, Worthy saw only four targets but had three receptions for 73 yards and a touchdown. When they rematched in Week 14, Worthy’s line was a bit more modest to the tune of five receptions on six targets for 41 yards. Without Rice, we can probably assume Worthy is due for heavy targets Friday night.

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $7,600

The 2024 season was lost on Pacheco as he lost over two months due to injury. And even upon his return he was relegated to a split backfield with Kareem Hunt, who was terribly inefficient last year. At full health, Pacheco is certainly the RB1 in this offense.

Prior to fracturing his fibula, Pacheco totaled 189 carries and a touchdown on 42 carries. That was in a two-game sample size. He’s now almost a full year removed and should be back to full strength. Frank Ammirante even draws a wise comparison to Tony Pollard’s return from the same injury.

There are some incredibly tempting props on his first quarter rushing yardage, total yardage, and his odds of finding the end zone. Ownership at Captain will likely go elsewhere for this matchup given how Pacheco finished the 2024 season. But he could touch the ball 15+ times and the Chargers struggled to stop the run at the end of last year.

 

 

 

NFL Friday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Justin Herbert, QB, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $9,800

If Jim Harbaugh was writing this article, he would list Justin Herbert in every section. The man just loves to hype up his quarterback. He’s constantly “in awe of Herbert’s work ethic” and he refers to his QB1 as Beast Herbert. Jim Harbaugh loves him some Justin Herbert and it wouldn’t surprise me if they got matching tattoos with the other’s initials (they have the same initials).

So I do apologize to Coach Harbaugh for not putting his guy in the Captain section. But similar to Patrick Mahomes, we know the rushing upside is there for Herbert. We know he can be great. But we just don’t see it consistently. And even when the Chargers were constantly exceeding the pass rate over expected (PROE) numbers from a year ago, Herbert still couldn’t top 4,000+ yards in the regular season.

Against the Chiefs in Week 14 last year, Herbert completed 21-of-30 pass attempts for 213 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 13 yards. But remember he didn’t have Ladd for that game. Way back in Week 4 last year, the Chiefs had his number as he completed just under 60% of his pass attempts for 179 yards and a touchdown. Strangely enough, both matchups last year between these teams were rather slow and low scoring.

If we can hang our hat on anything with Herbert, he’s good with protecting the ball. Outside of the playoff game against Houston where he had four picks, he only turned the ball over five times in the regular season last year. I think there’s a fine floor in this matchup and he correlates well with Ladd McConkey as a flex play. But I’m not too optimistic about Herbert as a Captain for this game.

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $6,400

It might be a bit bold, but I actually really like Keenan Allen this week. Do I like him for the whole season? No because I think Tre’ Harris eventually takes on a larger role. For Week 1, I do want to get some exposure to a healthy Keenan Allen.

He may be older but even with a rookie QB in Chicago last year, Allen still saw 121 targets across 15 games. He had some huge performances down the stretch of the regular season and he was huge in the fantasy football playoffs with 223 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns in Weeks 15 and 16.

Chargers offensive coordinator, Greg Roman, gave Allen a lot of praise for picking up the offensive scheme. And while Allen is now the WR2 for Los Angeles, the last time he was paired with Justin Herbert in 2023, Allen averaged 95.6 YPG, 2.56 YPRR, and 31.6% TPRR. As the season progresses, I think Harris plays a larger role, but for Week 1 I’m leaning into Allen.

Hollywood Brown, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $5,800

We’re circling back to the consolidated wide receiver room for Kansas City. Brown never really had a moment where he popped off for a big game last year. 2024 was largely a lost season for Brown because of injuries. But with Rice suspended for the first six games, there are immediate targets available.

Brown is listed as a started on the team’s depth chart and at this affordable price tag he does possess some upside. Even when he came back from injury last year, Brown burst on the scene with nine receptions on 15 targets in his first two games back. But he had a rather limited role during the Chiefs playoff run. He has an amazing opportunity to get off to a hot start in 2025.

 

 

 

NFL Friday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $8,600

Travis Kelce looked noticeably slower in 2024 and the production dropped off as he wasn’t able to do much after the catch. Including the playoffs, he scored FOUR total touchdowns. Add to that fact, his 1.5 YPRR in 2024 was well below the 2.1 YPRR in his career. He’s not getting any younger. In fact, he turns 36 in October so we can probably assume this will be his final year in the NFL with big plans for life-after-football including his marriage to Taylor Swift.

However, without Rice and Royals, the Chiefs need to lean on their most reliable pass catchers. Despite the fall off in production, Kelce still had 97 receptions on 133 targets last year. On paper, I don’t love targeting tight ends against the Chargers when you consider the defensive combination of Derwin James, Khalil Mack, and Denzel Perryman. But the Bolts really weren’t an incredibly terrible matchup for tight ends at times in 2024. Kelce himself recorded 12 receptions on 15 targets for 134 yards in two games last year against Los Angeles.

For all the aging concerns, he still had five games of 20+ fantasy points on DraftKings. But he only returned the 100-yard bonus on two occasions last year so I’m hesitant to recommend him as a Captain. I’m more than happy to utilize him as a Flex play.

Omarion Hampton, RB, Los Angeles Chargers - DraftKings: $8,000

So there’s some panic surrounding Omarion Hampton heading into Week 1 and I don’t quite get it. He had a rough debut in his first preseason game. He wasn’t efficient, wasn’t able to break tackles, and didn’t display great vision. All in all, he was probably shaking off some nerves. He looked better in the games that followed.

But let’s not forget that Hampton was selected 22nd overall by the Chargers in this year’s draft. That’s a first-round price tag and we know this offense wants to have a run heavy identity. The problem is with Najee Harris who was largely uninvolved in the preseason due to an eye injury that involved fireworks over the 4th of July. Harris will make the player pool below but overall, I don’t think I’m playing him at his price tag. I’m more interested in Hampton.

Somewhere in the last 48 hours it was “leaked” via Rich Eisen that Harbaugh let it slip to him that Harris was starting. And “starting” can mean a variety of things. If he gets the first snap on offense, that’s technically starting. 

Hampton still profiles very well with some explosive upside. Do I have the confidence or conviction that he’ll see volume comparable to Isiah Pacheco? No. But this organization wants to establish the running game. They got off to a good start last year with J.K. Dobbins, but injuries caught up to him once again. Given the investment on Hampton, let’s maybe wait and see how things play out over the first few games before we declare that the sky is falling.

Update: Rather than revise this whole section, I’ll provide this little update regarding the running back situation for Friday’s game. Through Harbaugh’s own words, Hampton will get the start so maybe everyone can exhale now.

 

 

 

NFL Friday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $3,600

I don’t think highly of Hunt as a fantasy football option but for this slate, I can get behind the price tag. He wasn’t very efficient last season as he averaged just 3.7 yards per carry. However, I can look past the rushing inefficiency if he’s scoring short yardage touchdowns at $3,600 on DraftKings. After all, he scored nine total touchdowns last year. That’s basically what we’re looking for at this price. You can live with this price if he scores one short yardage touchdown. If he manages to somehow get two then he’s potentially in the optimal lineup as a Flex play.

Tre’ Harris, WR, Los Angeles Chargers - DraftKings: $3,400

Harris isn’t listed as a started on the team’s depth chart. However, he is a rookie that was drafted in the second round of this year’s draft. He’s a big prospect at 6’2” and 205 pounds so he has the build to be a successful receiver in the NFL.

Here is what is absolutely bananas about Tre’ Harris. He put up 1,030 yards at Ole Miss last year. He did that in EIGHT games. Furthermore, in his first seven games prior to getting hurt he had 987 receiving yards on 59 receptions. Sure, the schedule was a little soft. But in three of his first five games last year, he put up 175+ yards. In six of his eight games last year he recorded a 40+ yard reception. Even against the Florida Gators last November he scored a 43-yard touchdown and then re-aggravated an injury.

So the upside with Harris is monstrous but he just finds himself behind Keenan Allen on the depth chart. As the season progresses, I expect Harris to see a larger role. But just knowing what he was able to do last year at Ole Miss, even if he just gets a few targets we know he can take one to the house for a big score.

Noah Gray, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $1,600

So while I love Tre’ Harris in this game, we need to have some cheaper options to consider. JuJu Smith-Schuster is an option because he knows the offense and should see snaps out of the slot. But we saw Noah Gray priced up to the $3,000-$5,000 range at times last year on DraftKings for other Showdown slates.

From Weeks 11-14 we saw Gray record four straight games with four receptions. He’s easily paying off the price tag with multiple receptions in this game. And again, we saw Gray emerge at times as Travis Kelce was showing us that father time was catching up to him last season. Gray had 40 receptions last year and five touchdowns. It was around the time of Rashee Rice’s injury last season we saw Gray receive 41 targets from Weeks 4-16. That’s not a huge workload but I think it’s enough to justify using him as a punt play. 

 

 

 

FNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

I’m going to link the NFL DFS Showdown Playbook for Thursday once again because I went rather deep into lineup theory with kickers and defenses. It is Week 1. And over the last four years there’s a strong tendency for these early-season games to hit the under. I’m personally even betting the under (46.5 points) for this matchup. These teams combined for 27 points in Week 4 last year and then 36 points in the Week 14 rematch on Sunday Night Football.

The D/ST’s aren’t necessarily locks for big scores and both defenses could struggle to reach their respective ceilings. The Chargers offense averaged the fourth-fewest total plays in 2024 while the Chiefs ranked 11th. The pace of play was much slower when these two teams met.

The Chiefs finished the 2024 season top 10 in pressure rate but that may not matter too much as the Chargers aim to go run heavy and we did acknowledge Justin Herbert’s ability to limit turnovers. If you would prefer, Harrison Butker is a good option to get exposure to special team options. Kickers did appear in nearly half of the top 1% of Showdown lineups last year so that play could work out in a low scoring game.

The Chargers defense didn’t give up much in terms of scoring last year but they still managed to go 0-2 against Mahomes and the Chiefs. D/ST’s tend to go under-owned for NFL DFS Showdown slates (roughly 20% ownership on average) but the ceilings seem rather limited for both teams. If scoring is modest definitely look to the kickers when looking for some affordable pieces that can get to double-digit fantasy points.

 

 

 

Chiefs vs. Chargers DFS Player Pool: FNF, 9/5

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