The 2025 NFL Season kicks off Thursday night in the City of Brotherly Love! The Philadelphia Eagles will raise the Super Bowl banner as they welcome the Dallas Cowboys to town to kick the season off and we have a loaded slate of games spanning four of the next five days. Football is back and it feels as fantastic as ever.

DraftKings is offering up a Milly Maker for this Week 1 NFC East matchup but it’s a pretty terrible payout structure from top-to-bottom. If you’re playing that contest, best of luck and truly take some risks. There are plenty of great single-entry, three-entry max, and 20-entry max contests on the table on both sites so let’s dig into the first Showdown Playbook of the season with our Cowboys vs. Eagles DFS picks and preview for Thursday Night Football!

 

 

 

Cowboys vs. Eagles DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 9/4

The NFL certainly loved giving us bad NFC East matchups in primetime in 2024 so we’re really just sticking with tradition here to kick off 2025. The Philadelphia Eagles will raise their Super Bowl banner in front of their division rivals, the Dallas Cowboys.

Both teams look a bit different heading into the new season. The Cowboys did not renew Mike McCarthy’s contract as head coach. It was almost a mutual parting of ways between the two sides. In his place, the Cowboys promoted Brian Schottenheimer from offensive coordinator to head coach.

The Eagles also lost their head coach from a year ago. Kellen Moore had been rumored to be in line for a head coaching gig and he now takes over the New Orleans Saints. Kevin Patullo steps in as the team’s new offensive coordinator. I’m not sure we’ll see too many changes from previous seasons with the Eagles as Patullo has been the team’s pass game coordinator since 2021 so he’s familiar with this offensive scheme. If anything, a more difficult schedule for the Eagles in 2025 could lead to more passing.

The personnel for both sides, especially on the defensive side of the ball, look completely different. It was only about a week ago where the Dallas Cowboys conducted the massive trade of Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers after the two sides couldn’t come anywhere close to an agreement on a new contract. If the Cowboys aren’t winning, Jerry Jones just wants people talking about his team and that’s certainly been the case for the last week.

Now as we shift gears to the DFS side of this article, I highly encourage you to read through the entire piece. I touch on some lineup building statistics through the entire article. This isn’t just about highlighting my favorite plays. There is a lot of theory that goes into these contests with correlation and I tried to adjust my own processes by looking at the best Showdown lineups from a year ago. So let’s take a look at the Cowboys vs. Eagles DFS picks for the first NFL DFS Showdown slate of the 2025 season!

 

 

 

Cowboys vs. Eagles TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Cowboys +8.5 (-115)
    • Eagles -8.5 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Cowboys (+320)
    • Eagles (-410)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 47.5 (-110)
    • Under 47.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Cowboys +8.5 (-115)
    • Eagles -8.5 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Cowboys (+350)
    • Eagles (-450)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 47.5 (-110)
    • Under 47.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Cowboys vs. Eagles TNF, September 4th

As of this writing (Wednesday morning), there is a chance of rain approaching a little after kickoff and those could develop into storms later in the evening. Winds could vary from 8-12 miles per hour. There’s about a 40% chance of rain between 9:00 and 10:00 tomorrow night. From there it goes about to about 50-60% as the night draws on.

 

Cowboys vs. Eagles Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 1

There are no significant injuries to fantasy-relevant options that appear in our player pool below. However, there are some to keep an eye on.

Landon Dickerson’s back injury has been a narrative throughout camp, but he was a full participant in Tuesday’s practice. His presence would certainly help the Eagles offensive line but they could err on the side of caution. On the defensive side, Jalen Carter has been dealing with a shoulder issue but he was also a full participant on Tuesday.

For Dallas, we’re monitoring the situation’s around Tyler Guyton and Trevon Diggs, who are both dealing with knee injuries. The Dallas O-line isn’t what it used to be but it could certainly use Guyton as he’s listed as the team’s starting left tackle and he carries a first-round draft pedigree from 2024. Diggs is a little less certain so if he misses then a bad defense would get even worse.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles - DraftKings: $11,200 | FanDuel: $14,400

I’m not sure what kind of argument needs to be made for Barkley heading into the 2025 NFL opener. He stunned everyone a year ago. Even if you were high on him heading into the season, you likely didn’t foresee 2,000+ rushing yards and 15 touchdowns in the regular season.

In eight games last year (including the playoffs) he put up at least 29.7 fantasy points on DraftKings and seven of those performances went over 34 fantasy points. That is exactly the kind of performance you hope to get out of paying up for a Captain.

He didn’t find the end zone last year against Dallas but in their Week 17 matchup he did touch the ball 33 times for a total of 169 yards.

I don’t worry about this game being a blowout. Does that mean Barkley likely gets pulled later on? Maybe. But even if a blowout happens, that likely means Barkley was a big contributor.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $12,200

I’m less bullish using quarterbacks at Captain/MVP heading into 2025 compared to previous years. When they have the rushing/touchdown equity that Hurts has, then I’ll make the exception. But per Cody Main of Establish The Run, the quarterback position was rostered at Captain in 21.7% of showdown lineups last year while appearing in the top 1% of lineups at Captain just 13.7% of the time.

So we circle back to the rushing upside of Hurts. It really boils down to the Tush Push. From Weeks 1-15 last season he was able to score 14 touchdowns on the ground. That’s nearly one per week during that stretch. In the playoffs he added five more on the ground including three against the Commanders in the NFC Championship game.

The Eagles were so dominant on the ground last year that Hurts did see a regression in the passing numbers. In 15 games in the regular season last year, he didn’t even eclipse 3,000 passing yards and he only had 18 touchdowns. So this may not be such an awful leverage play given what we saw from Captain QB’s in 2024 and the fact that Hurts is reliant on the rushing touchdowns to put up a big score. With Barkley as the most expensive option on the board, Hurts may be better at the flex for our NFL DFS Showdown lineups.

I’m anticipating Barkley to carry over 25% exposure at Captain and Hurts likely around 15-18%. If I had to prefer one over the other, it would be Barkley for just a slight price increase.

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $12,000

Even in a season where he didn’t have his QB1 for the latter part of the year, Lamb still came away with 101 receptions and 1,194 receiving yards while averaging nearly 10 targets per game across 15 games. I’ll elaborate on the potential for this offense later on in Dak’s write-up but for the most part we know what we’re getting with Lamb.

I love rostering receivers at Captain because of the big play potential and Lamb has that, in addition to volume. He also led the NFL last year in missed tackles forced (25) at the wide receiver position and the last time Lamb had Dak Prescott for a full season he averaged 23.5 fantasy points per game in PPR formats. And that was with a top 10 defense. The Eagles did shut Lamb down in Week 10 last year, but remember the Cowboys were without Prescott for that matchup. Over the last two years, Lamb leads all wide receivers in yards per route run (4.09) against man coverage.

Brian Schottenheimer has also gone on record saying he's a big believer in shifts and motions, and over the last two years Lamb has a 6.6% touchdown per target rate on plays with motion compared to 4.4% on plays without. Lamb has tremendous upside this season especially if Prescott is attempting over 600 pass attempts at full health. For this matchup, Dallas should be chucking the ball around plenty to keep pace with the reigning Super Bowl champions.

George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $8,400

The same game script we just mentioned for Lamb also applies to Pickens. This will be Pickens’ first game with the Cowboys so I don’t want to dwell too much on the receiving totals from his time with the Steelers. But I at least think it’s worth mentioning he touts a 54.8% contested catch rate since 2022 which puts him in the top 10 at the wide receiver position.

And let’s keep in mind, possibly the biggest storyline in favor of Pickens this season is his contract. He’s playing on the final year of his rookie deal and is now with arguably the best quarterback he’s even been paired with and the offense projects great for fantasy football. All the motivation is there for him to have a career year and earn a big contract following this season.

Pricing is traditionally soft for Week 1 Showdown slates, but Pickens specifically carries a very modest tag on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Despite being the WR2 there’s plenty of targets to go around and Pickens is a player you can easily build around at Captain with a variety of Flex combinations.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles - DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $11,200

Brown is a player that you think would be in store for some positive regression ahead of the 2025 NFL season. As the WR1 for Philadelphia last year, he only had 97 targets in 13 games. He still went for over 1,000 yards and had seven touchdowns, but it was a significant drop off from his first season in Philly.

His game logs from a year ago show a handful of solid performances but in comparison to Barkley, he lacked the break-the-slate kind of upside we need from a Captain. The good news is that last year’s performances will likely leave him under-owned at Captain for Thursday’s matchup.

Brown is still a big, physical receiver. He plays bully ball better than most in the NFL and there’s still touchdown equity here. Dallas’ defense is still a bit depleted and Brown ranked behind only Ja'Marr Chase in average separation score last year according to Fantasy Points Data. And despite the lack of volume, Brown still posted four-year highs in yards per route run (3.22) and first-read target share (42%). If there’s positive regression in terms of his volume he’s looking at a tremendous bounce back opportunity this year.

But this is just one game and while I prefer him more as a Flex play, there’s some contrarian appeal to playing him at Captain in a few lineups.

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $10,800

Part of what made the Cincinnati Bengals such a great option in fantasy football last year was their defense. It’s this growing theory of “good offense, bad defense” that has consumed fantasy football analysts over the last couple seasons. It’s entirely possible the Dallas Cowboys are this year’s Cincinnati Bengals.

With the trade of Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers the Cowboys are tracking to have a bottom 10 defense in the league. However, they still have a competent quarterback with weapons. So while Dallas may be a wonderful mess to watch this year, the offense will have opportunities.

It would not surprise me one bit if Dak Prescott had twice as many pass attempts as Jalen Hurts in this game. The Eagles still have a strong defense despite some personnel turnover and the secondary is still a young, talented unit. But the pass attempts should be abundant for Dak.

If you buy into the negative game script for the Cowboys or if you think Dallas can keep this game competitive then you can roster Dak at Captain. I may even have about 10% of my lineups with Prescott as my Captain. But the lack of rushing upside is keeping my exposure in check, in addition to the “optimal” numbers for quarterbacks that were mentioned in Jalen Hurts’ section.

Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $5,200 | FanDuel: $5,000

With the addition of George Pickens, it’s very likely that Ferguson is downgraded to the third pass-catching option on the Dallas offense. And if you are like me and think Dallas is going to be chuckin’ the ball around a ton, then there’s enough to go around for everyone.

Let’s not forget what Ferguson did back in 2023 during a full season with Dak Prescott:

  • 102 Targets (7th among Tight Ends)
  • 761 Yards (8th)
  • 24(!) Red Zone Targets (1st)

And keep in mind, we all marveled at Trey McBride’s struggles to find the end zone in 2024. Jake Ferguson didn’t score AT ALL. I certainly prefer this play over the running backs on Dallas because if Philadelphia is getting pressure on Dak, it seems appropriate that Dak will opt for shorter passes over the middle to his tight end. And given the lack of touchdowns for Fergy last year, it just feels like Dallas wants to get him into the end zone Thursday night.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $9,600

Both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith came off Philly’s injury report heading into Week 1, so they’re solid confidence plays but Brown likely has the higher ceiling. Smith was a fine option last year but similar to Brown, the volume was down as he saw just 89 targets across 13 games and he tallied just 68 receptions for 833 yards.

Smith also only had two games last year where he registered the 100-yard receiving bonus on DraftKings, but one of those instances came in Week 17 against Dallas where he popped for six catches (on seven targets) for 120 yards and a pair of scores.

This next part applies to A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts. There are heavy concerns about volume especially in terms of game flow. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Eagles attempted a total of 180 pass attempts in the second halves of their games last year and that ranked dead last in the NFL. The belief is that they should be more active in the passing game this year with a more difficult schedule. However, if this game does turn into a blowout, that’s a bad game script for Philadelphia’s pass catchers so I struggle to include Smith as a “core” play despite the talent and speed he possesses.

Javonte Williams, RB, Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $6,600

I give slight preference to Williams over Jaydon Blue because of pricing relevant to the team’s depth chart. And truthfully, Week 1 depth charts aren’t indicative of the entire year. But as it stands right now, Williams and Miles Sanders have the NFL experience that Blue is lacking. In time, I believe Blue works his way to maybe 10 touches per game. But for Week 1, in a tough matchup, it feels like Dallas leans more on their veterans.

Williams never really impressed me during his tenure with Denver. Dallas’ offensive line isn’t as elite as it once was. But if there’s a running back in this backfield that may get more volume than the others then it’s probably Williams. But even to that point, there are cheaper options on this slate that could outscore these running backs if Dallas can’t get the run game going.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $5,200

KaVontae Turpin, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $2,800

Tolbert is the one that appears as a starter on the team’s depth chart but take that with a grain of salt. I’ll be mixing and matching these two appropriately into my Showdown lineups for this game as low-cost, high-upside value options that I hope can pop for a big touchdown.

Tolbert’s is in the final year of his contract and he’s coming off a year where he caught seven touchdowns. And he had seven games last year with double-digit fantasy points. He appeared in all 17 games last season for Dallas and had multiple receptions in all but three contests. For a $3,400 option on DraftKings, he’s giving us a decent floor.

If you’re brave enough to play the Dallas D/ST there’s a little correlation with Turpin as he is the team’s kicker returner. So if he takes one to the house and you’re rostering both, then you’re credited with two touchdowns. The odds of that happening are slim, but I feel obligated to mention the correlation factor.

Turpin’s a better play on FanDuel if you need the salary relief. Overall, I don’t have a strong lean towards either option. Passing volume could be abundant for the whole squad and the team did give Turpin a three-year extension in the offseason.

Grant Calcaterra, TE, Philadelphia Eagles - DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $1,000

On paper, he isn’t a great play. But this is the Showdown slate so even the worst plays on paper can’t be completely disregarded. Even I need to overcome my disdain for the Dallas running backs and their defense.

Calcaterra isn’t even the TE1 on his own team. But Dallas Goedert did appear on the injury report earlier in the week with a groin issue. And at the end of the day, Calcaterra will be under-rostered across the whole slate. Nobody will find joy rostering the TE2 on an offense that didn’t throw much last year, especially in the second half.

This isn’t a play you throw into your lineups with heavy exposure. This is a play you make when examining your lineups and try to make a few changes to really make your builds unique.

Will Shipley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $2,000 | FanDuel: $3,400

I think the fantasy industry did a collective scoff at this price tag for Shipley. And despite being a value option for this slate, there won’t be an ownership discount by any means. The Eagles official depth chart lists him as the backup to Saquon Barkley, so I don’t understand why he’s cheaper than A.J. Dillon.

We didn’t see much of Shipley last season, but we did see him come in during Week 18 and record 10.7 fantasy points. And then in the NFC Championship game against the Washington Commanders, Shipley came on in relief late in the game with 13.7 fantasy points including a touchdown on a long 57-yard run.

If you’re rostering Shipley it’s worth remembering that this is a game script play. Philadelphia needs to blow Dallas out for Shipley to get some late run unless there’s an injury to Barkley. Barkley himself even pulled himself from games late last year so Kenneth Gainwell and Shipley could get some reps. So you can absolutely play Shipley in any lineups that feature Barkley, or jam him in as a one-off game script play. If this game stays close, then that’s a negative game script for Shipley.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

If you decided to stick around this long in the article, then you’ve read about the game scripts, the potential for big performances, some lineup construction suggestions, etc. Here is where I’ll admit a fault in my stars… It’s Week 1. These teams aren’t in the full swing of the season. There will be rust. It could be sloppy to start. So while we’re all incredibly excited for football to be back, there could be some growing pains in this game. Over the past four seasons, 60.9% of Week 1 games have gone under the implied total according to Graham Barfield.

With that said, when it comes to Kickers and D/ST’s the only unit I don’t want to roster will be the Dallas Cowboys D/ST. Per Bill Barnwell, over the last four years, the Cowboys have been the league’s best defense in terms of EPA per play with Micah Parsons on the field. When Parsons isn’t on the field, they’re the league’s second-worst defense. The Eagles have an early implied team total of nearly 28 points and in the two games where these two met in 2024, the Eagles outscored them 75-13.

I can’t say I’m necessarily thrilled about playing Philadelphia’s D/ST in this matchup, but from a lineup theory perspective, it makes sense to get exposure. Through free agency, trades, and retirement the Eagles lost a combination of Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Brandon Graham, and Bryce Huff from a year ago. Four of their best pass rushers are gone from their Super Bowl winning squad. The Cowboys don’t boast a great offensive line like they have in previous seasons, but this personnel turnover gives me some pause. 

I still believe exposure to D/ST’s in this game is fine even though I’m more bearish than bullish. D/ST’s don’t typically carry significant ownership. On average, D/ST’s carried less than 20% exposure on featured Showdown slates a year ago. So if you gain some slight leverage and there’s a pick six, multiple sacks and/or turnovers, then you’re sitting pretty. Those are hard to predict and project so I wouldn’t go super crazy trying to get heavy leverage on either D/ST. You can probably max D/ST exposure to 25%.

The kickers are very much in play for this slate. Since it’s only Week 1, I’m not going to dwell too much trying to estimate how many attempts each kicker will see. Jake Elliott did put up 11 and 10 fantasy points against Dallas last year while Brandon Aubrey was limited to just eight total fantasy points against the Eagles in both matchups last year. Again, Philly outscored Dallas 75-13 across those two matchups.

Correlate the kickers accordingly. If you build Showdown lineups heavily in favor of the Eagles then it makes sense to plug in Elliott as his field goals and XPA’s have positive correlation with Hurts, Barkley, Brown, Smith, etc. Per Cody Main, at least one kicker appeared in 46.5% of the top 1% of Showdown lineups in 2024. With relatively soft pricing in this matchup, the kickers represent some good salary relief with the chance of providing double-digit fantasy points.

 

 

 

Cowboys vs. Eagles DFS Player Pool: TNF, 9/4

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