It’s been a fun holiday weekend, but we end the festivities with a matchup for what we could appropriately call “The Mike Shanahan Bowl” considering he coached both organizations in his illustrious career. The Denver Broncos head East to Landover, MD for a primetime matchup against the Washington Commanders. This matchup would have more fanfare if Jayden Daniels was able to suit up. Alas, that won’t be the case, but we still have a fun little inter-conference matchup to break down to help you pocket some coin ahead of your Cyber Monday shopping. Here are the Broncos vs. Commanders DFS picks as we turn the page on another NFL Sunday!

 

 

 

Broncos vs. Commanders DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 11/30

For the latest SNF DFS picks, we have a pair of teams both coming off their Bye week so we can’t quite lean into the narrative that one team has fresher legs than the other. Both these organizations emerged and made some exciting runs in 2024 with their respective rookie quarterbacks. For 2025, injuries have derailed one team while an elite defense has been a force for the other.

The Washington Commanders obviously had higher hopes entering this season fresh off a run to the NFC Championship a year ago. But Terry McLaurin, who signed a big contract extension prior to the season, has battled injuries all season and Jayden Daniels went down with an injury to his non-throwing arm a few weeks ago. Fortunately for Washington, McLaurin will return for this game while Daniels won’t. The team took a six-game losing streak into their Bye week after starting the season 3-2.

The Denver Broncos hold a two-game lead over the Los Angeles Chargers for the AFC West. The Broncos find themselves in position to win the AFC West for the first time since 2015 and that was also the last time the Kansas City Chiefs did not win the division. With a win Sunday night, the Broncos are almost guaranteeing a new division winner whether it’ll be the SoCal Bolts or the Mile High Ponies.

Bo Nix hasn’t really been elite this year, but we’ll break down his outlook shortly in the player pool below. But the defense has been this organization’s bread and butter. The Broncos allow the 3rd fewest yards per game (274.4) and the 3rd fewest points per game (17.5). They lead the NFL in sacks (49) and they’re phenomenal disruptors that don’t really let opposing offenses find their momentum. Only four opposing offenses have scored 20+ points on them this year.

The outlook isn’t good for the hometown Commanders, so we’ll have to get creative with our 4:2 or 5:1 Broncos stacks to dominate this slate with our SNF DFS picks. Let’s close out the holiday weekend with the latest Broncos vs. Commanders DFS picks for Sunday Night Football!

 

 

 

Broncos vs. Commanders SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Broncos -6.5 (-112)
    • Commanders +6.5 (-108)
  • Money Line:
    • Broncos (-310)
    • Commanders (+250)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 43.5 (-105)
    • Under 43.5 (-115)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Broncos -6.5 (-115)
    • Commanders +6.5 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Broncos (-355)
    • Commanders (+285)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 43.5 (-105)
    • Under 43.5 (-115)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Broncos vs. Commanders SNF, November 30th

We don’t have too many weather concerns for our SNF DFS picks. Temperatures will start in the low 40’s around kickoff and they’ll slowly drop as the game progresses. There’s no rain in the forecast and winds should remain under 10 miles per hour.

 

Broncos vs. Commanders Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 13

The Denver Broncos are coming in mostly with a clean bill of health. They only listed six players on their injury report this week and four of them practiced in full on Thursday and Friday. The big news is that defensive back, Pat Surtain, is set to return for this matchup so an elite defense is about the get back one of the best defensive backs in the league. The Broncos have ruled out Nate Adkins for this matchup and Jonah Elliss is listed as questionable.

The Washington Commanders definitely had the more informative injury report and they’ve already ruled out Jayden Daniels, Noah Brown, and Drake Jackson for this matchup. The team will get Terry McLaurin back for this matchup for the first time since Week 8 and this will be just his fifth active game of the season.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $13,000

Bo Nix has not been particularly good this season. He’s had some good games but also just hasn’t made significant strides year-over-year from his rookie season to his sophomore campaign. Among qualified quarterbacks, he ranks 15th in EPA/Play (0.08), 26th in success rate (42.4%), and 23rd in completion percentage over expected (-2.4%) per Sam Hoppen. So again, he hasn’t been anything special this year. But as I’ve said in more recent editions of these NFL DFS Showdown Playbooks, winning can hide certain warts and the Broncos are riding high on an eight-game winning streak.

If you look at Nix’s player profile on DraftKings, his three biggest performances this season came against some of the worst defenses in the league. Against the Cincinnati Bengals, the New York Giants, and the Dallas Cowboys Nix returned 24+ fantasy points per DraftKings scoring in all three matchups with a lot of touchdown equity in those games. The Commanders have allowed the most fantasy points per pass attempt (0.60) per Tristan H. Cockroft of ESPN.

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos - DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $10,800

A lot of what I’m about to say for Sutton also applies to all the Denver receivers, especially Troy Franklin who will be listed below in the core plays section. Whenever I’m optimistic about Sutton it ends up being Franklin who has the big game. So you’ll hear no argument from me if you want to play Franklin at Captain.

I’m still bullish on Sutton as he’s still the WR1 in this offense. Sutton enters this game just 11 yards away from 6,000 career receiving yards. The good news for Sutton is that he should see enough volume to pay off the price tag. However, he only has four games all year with at least six receptions. The Washington secondary is fairly depleted and beat up. On the season, the Commanders are allowing the most yards per catch (14.3), the most yards per target (9.8), and the fourth-highest catch rate to opposing receivers. Sutton hasn’t had many spike weeks this season, but this matchup could be where he delivers one of his best performances of the year.

RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $11,400

In the first game the Broncos did not have J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey received a majority of the workload. He out-snapped Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie 37-to-16 and he received 11 carries and three targets to their six carries and two targets. Heading into the team’s Bye week, Harvey also had five touchdowns in as many games.

The involvement in the passing game should have him on our radar as we give more value to running backs that can catch passes on Showdown slates. The Washington Commanders run defense ranks 24h in rush success rate (43.2%), stuffed run rate (17.0%), and yards after contact per attempt (3.22) while also ranking 23rd in yards before contact per attempt (1.44). Because of these poor metrics, the Commanders have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards and fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. We’re looking at a potential smash spot for Denver’s rookie running back.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Deebo Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,400

The matchups are horrendous for everybody across the board on the Washington side. At least with Deebo, we’re getting volume and he’s healthy. Terry McLaurin is returning for this game but he’s likely going to be shadowed by Pat Surtain. I’m not going to highlight McLaurin in this article, but he’ll make the payer pool below.

Deebo at least moves around all over the field. He can line up out wide, in the slot, and they’ll generate some carries for him out of the backfield. He scored in back-to-back games leading into the team’s Bye week and he definitely has more rapport with Marcus Mariota than McLaurin does.

I anticipate Deebo still draws some ownership in addition to Chris Rodriguez At the end of the day, you have to play somebody on the Washington side and the matchups are tough for all parties affiliated with the home team. But Deebo and Rodriguez seem like the two most likely to get volume.

Troy Franklin, WR, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $8,800

Everything we said in Courtland Sutton’s section applies to Troy Franklin as well. The matchup for all the Denver receivers is great and from top-to-bottom they’re all in play.

Prior to Denver’s Bye week, Franklin saw at least eight targets in five straight games. In that span he received 45 total targets but caught less than half of them (22). He still has four touchdowns in that sample size, but you have to wonder what his ceiling could be if Nix wasn’t off-target with so many of his passes. Nix is only completing 61.2% of his pass attempts on the season.

Franklin still commands a 25% target share on the season and you can certainly argue he is Denver’s WR1 even though I just argued on Sutton’s behalf. He gets separation so I can see why Nix looks his way even if the targets aren’t always catchable.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Marcus Mariota, QB, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $11,800

Mariota is hardly a mid-tier play since he’s the second-most expense healthy player on the slate. But I also don’t view him as a core play at such a heavy cost. Think of it this way, Chris Rodriguez and Marvin Mims will cost you $10,200 on DraftKings. That’s the same price as Mariota and there is a game script where those two pop and provide more production than Mariota.

I’ll give Mariota credit because he’s consistent above anything else. As bizarre as it may be, in each of his last three starts he’s thrown for exactly 213 yards. But the ceiling feels a bit capped in this matchup and I’d rather try and pay up for Nix or down to any of Denver’s skill position players.

Mariota does provide a little rushing upside which does offset the diminished passing volume. But it’s a tough matchup against a brutal pass rush that’s averaging nearly a sack every quarter.

Zach Ertz, TE, Washington Commanders- DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $6,600

Ertz is a better value on FanDuel but he’s still playable on DraftKings as well. The Broncos defend every position well but if there’s a weakness it may be against opposing tight ends. This position has been hit-or-miss against Denver, but when they hit, they hit big.

In Week 11, Travis Kelce caught 9-of-13 targets for 91 yards and a touchdown. In Week 9, Dalton Schultz caught 6-of-7 targets for 77 yards. In Week 7, Daniel Bellinger and Theo Johnson combined for six receptions for 154 yards and both found the end zone. Perhaps it’s an odd-numbered week thing where opposing tight ends emerge against the Broncos.

Ertz’s production is a bit modest, but he did have four straight games with four receptions heading into the team’s Bye week. He might be a better floor play but it’s not completely unheard of for a tight end to produce against Denver’s vaunted defense.

Chris Rodriguez, RB, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $8,400

This is one of the few slates where we obviously don’t have a ton of confidence in Washington. I did have Rodriguez initially locked in as a core play because I like the price tag and I’m assuming he retains the RB1 role in Washington’s offense.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt is a play-at-your-own-risk suggestion. Back in Week 10, Bill Croskey-Merritt saw just a 16.7% rush share before Rodriguez got hurt. But C-Rod kept the lead role in Week 11 and had 15 carries to JCM’s 9 and Rodriguez outpaced him in expected fantasy points as well (11.6 to 6.7 XFP). It’s not a great matchup for either, but JCM is largely unplayable at this juncture and Rodriguez seems to be the player they’re willing to trust and we’re getting him at a discount on DraftKings.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Evan Engram, TE, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $4,600 | FanDuel: $3,400

Engram has not been very good this season. We can’t even necessarily lean on any particular injury as an excuse because he’s only missed one game and he has just one touchdown on the season which isn’t quite a ringing endorsement when discussing a position as touchdown dependent as tight end can be.

But despite the underwhelming numbers, he’s still getting volume. Prior to the team’s Bye week, he had back-to-back games with five targets and he has six games this season with at least four receptions. For a player who will see plenty of snaps at such a low cost, that’s not awful and it arguably makes him a core play on FanDuel at just $3,400.

Marvin Mims, WR, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $3,800 | FanDuel: $4,200

Mims is a tough sell simply because he missed time with a concussion, but he did return in Week 11 but touted a 25% route rate which obviously isn’t great. But let’s try and big brain this matchup because there’s big play potential for Mims.

Per Corbin Young, the Broncos utilize man coverage at the ninth-highest rate in the league and Mims averages 4.09 yards per route run against man coverage concepts. By comparison, Courtland Sutton is at 3.25 YPRR and Troy Franklin is at 1.19 but he still draws targets. But we also do get some kick return work with Mims as well so there’s some positive correlation here if you want to play him alongside Denver’s D/ST. He’s certainly a gamble but he’s flashed upside before and if he takes a deep shot to the house then he’s hitting the optimal lineup.

Treylon Burks, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $1,000 | FanDuel: $1,000

Let’s get a little weird as we near the end of our Broncos vs. Commanders DFS picks. Jaylin Lane and Chris Moore probably make more sense because they have more chemistry with Marcus Mariota. But all the value receivers take a bit of a hit with Terry McLaurin returning. And if you need a little more salary relief, given the landscape of the wide receiver room, it’s possible the Commanders just want to see what they may have in a young receiver like Burks.

The Commanders recently waived Robbie Chosen to keep Burks on the roster and he caught all three of his targets in the Week 10 loss to the Detroit Lions before missing Week 11 with a finger injury. This is a good way to get a little contrarian especially if you’re trying to build out heavy stacks in favor of the reliable options on Denver. It just depends how risk averse you are at the end of the day.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

Given how we’ve seen elite D/ST’s in good matchups for previous slates, I was anticipating the Denver Broncos being priced in the $6,000-$6,800 range on DraftKings. Much to my surprise, they’re only $5,400 which is high but manageable for our Broncos vs. Commanders DFS picks.

As I noted at the top of the article, the Broncos lead the NFL with 49 sacks, but they only have nine takeaways in 11 games and that’s capped their ceiling for fantasy football. The Broncos do have four games with double-digit fantasy points this season, but they don’t have any spike weeks of 15+ fantasy points. This could be the simple case of “good defense, bad fantasy football defense” but at the end of the day, it’s still a great matchup for Denver especially since they’ll have Pat Surtain likely shadowing Terry McLaurin.

I don’t have much interest in playing the Commanders D/ST aside from maybe getting a little contrarian. They are $2,000 cheaper than Denver’s defense but that doesn’t mask the fact that Washington’s defense gave up 82 total points in their two games heading into their Bye week. And since Week 2 they’ve allowed 24+ points to all but two opponents. In eight games this season they’ve returned less than seven fantasy points.

Will Lutz correlates well in Denver stacks but you might get more upside and less ownership if you can find a way to get up to Denver’s D/ST. From Weeks 1-10 Lutz did not have a single game with three field goal attempts and he only had 15 field goal attempts total in that span. He didn’t have a single performance with double-digit fantasy points in Denver’s first 10 games. But all that changed in Week 11 when he kicked five field goals and an extra point for 18 fantasy points against the Kansas City Chiefs. He’s a good correlation play in this matchup but we should probably expect closer to two field goal attempts in this matchup. Depending on the distance of his FGA’s, he could still get to 10+ fantasy points.

Jake Moody was signed off the Chicago Bears practice squad and will be the starting place kicker for his third different team this season. If this game features a negative game script for Washington, they may abandon any and all plans for field goal attempts. But Denver luckily has played in a handful of tight games this season so Moody shouldn’t be completely ruled out. But be mindful, Moody has only appeared in three games this season and he’s missed three attempts as well.

 

 

 

Broncos vs. Commanders DFS Player Pool: SNF, 11/30

Player Pool

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Stacks

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