Black Friday football is back with a legitimate playoff-implication banger: the 8-3 Chicago Bears visit the 8-3 Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Both teams are tied atop their divisions, both top-10 in scoring, both rolling into this game with momentum. The total has crashed from an open of 48 down to 44.5 on sharp money expecting cold weather and two elite run games, but the books are sleeping on how quickly this can turn into a pass-fest if either team gets down 10 points. These four player props are mispriced the worst on the entire board.

Best NFL Black Friday Player Prop Picks: Caleb Williams over 20.5 Rushing Yards

Williams is averaging 26.6 rushing yards per game in his second season and has cleared 20.5 in seven of his eleven starts, including five of the last six. His last five rushing totals: 53, 63, 26, 21, and 24 yards he’s basically automatic at this point. Philadelphia’s defensive ends crash hard up field, routinely leaving massive cutback lanes and scramble/drill opportunities for mobile quarterbacks; the Eagles have allowed the 12th-most rushing yards to the QB position this year. Williams has turned into one of the better scrambling QB's in football right now and Chicago has openly built 6-8 designed runs into the game plan every week. This prop is the biggest gift on the board.

 

 

Black Friday Player Props: Colston Loveland Over 29.5 Receiving Yards

The Bears’ rookie tight end has morphed into Caleb Williams’ No. 1 read and most trustworthy target over the second half of the season. Loveland is averaging 37.8 yards per game overall but has been an absolute monster lately, posting 118, 55, 40, and 49 yards over his last four games every single one a 19+ yard clearance of this number. He’s now seeing 5-7 targets per game and has become the primary red-zone option as well. Philadelphia has been stout against tight ends on the season, but they haven’t faced a rookie this hot with this kind of chemistry.

 

 

Black Friday Player Props: Jalen Hurts Over 210.5 Passing Yards

Hurts is averaging just 207.6 yards per game on the season and since Week 5 he’s averaging 239 passing yards per game and has cleared 210.5 in five of his last seven starts, going for 280, 283, 326, and 289 in four of his last six meaningful games. Chicago ranks 21st in opponent passing yards allowed and has surrendered 300+ yards to quarterbacks in three of their last six contests.

 

 

Black Friday Player Props: A.J. Brown Over 58.5 Receiving Yards

Brown’s season-long average is dragged down by two absolute dud games (8 and 7 yards) in Weeks 2 and 3. Since Week 6 he’s averaging 74.6 yards per game with two 100+ yard performances and three games north of 90 in that span. Chicago’s secondary is battered, multiple starters questionable or out,  and they rank bottom-10 in explosive pass plays allowed while playing more zone than any team in football over the last month. Brown saw 12 targets last week and turned them into 110 yards.

 

 

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