It’s shocking to say it given the teams here. But this is one of the most anticipated games of the week. Are they excited to see which of these 2-8 juggernauts can maybe claw their way back from the bottom of the standings? No, not really. They all want to see one man - Shedeur Sanders.

The hype might be based on who his dad is and his flamboyant early career. But having a rookie quarterback start his very first game is always going to factor into the equation for our predictions and picks. So let’s dive into the data on the teams and figure out how to play this one!

Even if you just want to see the Browns vs. Raiders odds and have Browns vs. Raiders picks of your own, stick around so that you can also learn how to snag a $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook sign up bonus!

 

 

 

Browns vs. Raiders Predictions For Sunday 4:05 PM ET, NFL Week 12

Division games don’t always go the way we’d expect. And the Browns vs. these teams really don’t square up that often - they’ve only met once over the last three years in 2024. The Raiders won that game 20-16. In fact, the Raiders have won the last five matchups between these two teams dating back to 2015. That doesn’t affect this matchup much, but the Browns would probably like to stop that streak at a decade. 

The Browns are sitting at a 2-8 record, dead last in their division. Their two wins were one over the Miami Dolphins as well as a shocker against the Green Bay Packers. The Raiders are also 2-8, sitting in dead last. Like the Browns, the Raiders have one expected win vs. the Titans and one surprising win against the Patriots. 

Cleveland Browns: Shedeur Sanders Debut

This week, we will see the most anticipated debut of a third-string, fifth-round quarterback of all time. And, quite frankly, we aren’t making any assumptions. Last week when Sanders got in, he was not preparing to start all week and was thrown into a tough matchup. This week is his official debut in our eyes - and it’s a nice soft matchup. We won’t know for sure if he’s an NFL-caliber player without a larger sample size than one game, but we are giving him the benefit of the doubt here from a judgment standpoint. That said, any rookie starting his very first game for a bad team is not a spot we generally love.

On defense, the Browns have been pretty good, especially against the run. FTN Fantasy’s DVOA stat, which accounts for schedule strength, actually has them graded as the top run defense. They’ve also been a top-10 unit against the pass - it helps that Myles Garrett is a super elite disruptor via the pass rush. 

Las Vegas Raiders: Geno Smith Says “Blame Him”

It was perhaps a little tongue-in-cheek, but Geno Smith told reporters (and fans) that they can simply “blame him” for anything that goes wrong with the team or that goes wrong in their lives, for that matter. That might be a little bit overboard but, in terms of the passing game, we probably can. It’s never a good sign when you aren’t ranked top 30 in any of the all-encompassing attempts to put a numeric rank to QBs like passer rating, QBR, EPA, PFF’s grades etc. A few of those he’s not even in the top 40 quarterbacks.

You can’t really blame Geno for the defense, however, and they have struggled themselves. On paper, they are really not a great secondary and they have allowed over 25 points per game to opposing defenses. We have to keep in mind that a lot of the teams letting up more points per game are ones that fight back on offense, like the Bengals, Cowboys, and Bears, which leads to shootouts. The Raiders are one of the teams that is just not that good. 

 

 

 

Browns vs. Raiders Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines

As promised, the latest Browns vs. Raiders odds can be found below courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:

 

 

 

Browns vs. Raiders: Game Total Under 36 (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

This game total is set pretty darn low, as far as game totals go. One of the lowest of the year. But I’m personally not really sure you CAN set it too low. Because not only are these bad teams, but they matchup pretty well against what the other team is hoping to do.

On the defensive side for the Browns, they are great against the run as we mentioned, so Ashton Jeanty is in line for another rough day. But they are also quietly a top-ranked team against the tight end. DVOA has them actually ranked second behind only the Eagles and they have allowed the sixth-fewest receptions to tight ends this year, which is not good news for Brock Bowers. That’s on top of Geno playing pretty poorly.

On the flip side, you have Shedeur Sanders starting his very first game. Even if the idea is that maybe the Browns can move the ball on the ground, the Raiders are actually middle of the pack against the run and will likely stack the box against and challenge Sanders to throw. I think that, at the end of the day, this game will be as bad as advertised. So we’re going under. 

 

 

 

Browns vs. Raiders Injury Report & Latest News

Finally, let’s take a quick look at the projected starting lineups for both teams heading into today’s matchup:

Cleveland Browns:

Las Vegas Raiders:

  • None

 

 

 

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Now that you’re armed with our Browns vs. Raiders predictions, let’s take you through the aforementioned $1,500 BetMGM sign up bonus. You’ll just need the BetMGM promo code ALARM when creating a new account, but our links and banners should have it filled in for you.

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