Updated: Monday, Jan. 15 at 12:20pm ET

**Weather Update**

Some flurries or blowing snow is possible, but everything should be very light. Winds are down to 10-15mph with gusts around 20 or 25. The temp is still frigid, in the teens with the feels-like temp around 5 degrees

Welcome to Wild Card Weekend! The 2023 NFL playoffs get underway and we’ve got a tremendous slate of games to choose from for our DFS contests. You can play the full six-game slate or you can break it down by day or even by game. Some might not agree, but playing the Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers showdown contest might be a winner. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has his team playing some inspired football as Mason Rudolph, a.k.a. The Dragon, has done a fantastic job filling in for the injured Kenny Pickett. Meanwhile, Sean McDermott is doing his best to keep the Bills calm, keep Josh Allen from too many turnovers and keep everyone focused on getting to the Super Bowl. The books aren’t expecting a high-scoring affair, but in DFS, it doesn’t matter how much they score, just as long as you have those who do score in your lineups.



Steelers vs. Bills Prediction: Josh Allen Leads Bills to Victory in Cold Buffalo Weather

The Steelers are going to do everything in their power to keep the Bills offense off the field. They’ll run hard with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren and hopefully keep the pressure off Rudolph who will likely have some playoff jitters and could make some mistakes. The Bills have been here before and know exactly what to expect. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady has brought in a much more balanced approach and is doing everything he can to limit Josh Allen’s mistakes. Allen takes a lot on himself and that’s where the mistakes happen, so look for Brady to utilize James Cook out of the backfield throughout this game while routinely assuring Allen that he doesn’t need to do everything himself.

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers Odds

  • Spread: Bills -10
  • Moneyline:
    • Bills (-550)
    • Steelers (+400)
  • Total: 35.5
  • Weather: Cold, windy, potentially some snow. Temps will be in the 20s with sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts around 30 mph.

Bills vs, Steelers Injury Report:

Buffalo Bills

Pittsburgh Steelers

Best DFS Picks for Bills vs. Steelers:

Josh Allen, QB Buffalo Bills

While the game total is a little low, Allen should still be a top0-used QB in DFS contests this weekend. We know he’s got the rushing upside and we know he likes to poach touchdowns near the goal-line, so the floor is raised for him. He probably won’t need to do a world of passing unless the Steelers ground game really crushes, but he’ll still throw for some decent yards and a touchdown or two.

James Cook, RB Buffalo Bills

The increase in touches since Jor Brady took over as the OC is something we will need to focus on, especially given the weather concerns. He’s averaged 18 carries per game over the team’s last four and he’s also seen 10 targets in that span. The Steelers have given up the most fantasy points per game to running backs out of any team playing this weekend and that should help you make those choices as to which running back you want in DFS. I’m definitely in.

Najee Harris, RB Pittsburgh Steelers

The Bills rank 17th in DVOA against the run, they allow the 18th-most rushing yards per game this season and gave up 14 rushing touchdowns this season. Thise stats aren’t eye-popping, but with the way Harris has been running here at the tail-end of the season – back-to-back 20-carry games with 100-yard efforts in both and three rushing touchdowns – we have to be interested. Pittsburgh wants to run the football here and they’ll put Harris front-and-center.

Stefon Diggs, WR Buffalo Bills

People are going to shy away from Diggs given his reduced snap-count and lack of production this season. That makes me want to use him even more because I know I’m getting an elite wideout at a discount and low-ownership. The weather will keep people off him as well, so get him in as a contrarian play and he and Allen will do the rest.

Dalton Kincaid, TE Buffalo Bills

He’s been one of the most consistent targets for Allen this season and even with Dawson Knox back in the lineup, Kincaid is still averaging six-to-eight targets per game. He finished the season strong with back-to-back 80-plus-yard efforts and he continues to get red zone looks as well. I like him more on DK than FD due to the volume, but happy to use him on both sites, especially when the Steelers give up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends of all the teams playing this weekend.

Diontae Johnson, WR Pittsburgh Steelers

He moves the chains to help keep long, sustained droves moving for the Steelers and last week, we saw Rudolph thread the needle to him for a big, 71-yard catch-and-run TD. He sees the most targets on this team, so if Rudolph is throwing, you know Johnson is racking up points.

Other DFS Picks for Wild Card Weekend:

Jaylen Warren, RB Pittsburgh Steelers

He’ll serve as the complementary back for the Steelers and makes for a great second in this backfield. He can be explosive when he finds the holes and he also does a great job catching passes out of the flat and racking up yards after the catch. The Steelers are expected to have a high-volume rushing game-plan so Warren definitely warrants DFS consideration, especially on DraftKings. 

Mason Rudolph, QB Pittsburgh Steelers

The weather and potential game script don’t have me looking at Rudolph all that much for DFS, but if you believe the Bills will win this one and grab an early lead, then you have to expect Rudolph to throw a little more than expected. He’s a super-contrarian DFS pick for GPP tournaments, so if you think he’s throwing and you like to build multiple lineups, maybe a little exposure is worth a look.

George Pickens, WR Pittsburgh Steelers

He’s a little too hit-or-miss but the ceiling is tremendous as you witnessed in Weeks 16 and 17. With a heavy ground approach for the Steelers, Rudolph just might be able to find Pickens downfield in one-on-one coverage when the linebackers and safeties bit on play-action. The floor is low, but in a GPP tournament, Pickens has the upside we like.

Gabe Davis, WR Buffalo Bills

Speaking of hit-or-miss, amirite? Not sure we can even trust Davis as he is currently dealing with a knee issue. If he plays, he’s the third option in this passing attack and the Bills like to use him to stretch the field vertically.

Khalil Shakir, WR Buffalo Bills

I like Shakir as a low-key receiving option this week, but I would love him if Davis is out, so we’ll just have to wait and see for the time being. Shakir has strong speed and the Steelers rank 27th in DVOA against the WR3/slot receiver. If he can get a handful of targets, he should be in a good spot to add yards after the catch, especially with the Pittsburgh safeties preoccupied with Diggs and Kincaid.

Pat Freiermuth, TE Pittsburgh Steelers

The Bills finished the season 14th in DVOA against the tight end, but they also allowed an average of nearly 50 receiving yards per game. They also allowed an average of just over 10 fantasy points per game to the position, so look for Freiermuth to get a few targets his way, including inside the red zone.

DFS NFL Value Plays:

Leonard Fournette, RB Buffalo Bills

Not a major play given the recent work of Cook, but he could be in for a goal-line carry or two, especially if the Bills are sitting on a lead in the second half. He’s a dart-throw, at best, but you need to get a little weird if you’re just playing the Sunday-only slate

Calvin Austin, WR Pittsburgh Steelers

The occasional target and return work are what you’re hoping for using Austin. He’s got great speed, but you really need the stars to align for him to have a truly big week.

Trent Sherfield, WR Buffalo Bills

I’ll give him a look as the fourth receiving option if Gabe Davis sits. If Davis plays, there’s no need. No reason to chase last week’s look what I found TD.

Dawson Knox, TE Buffalo Bills

Not a lot of targets, but he still grabs a red zone look or two from Allen. Old habits die hard, I suppose. Maybe while everyone else is in on Kincaid, you pivot to Knox, but don’t expect more than the one catch for an eight-yard score.

More NFL Wild Card Game DFS Breakdowns: