The 2023 NFL playoffs are here and Wild Card Weekend is already fixing to be a spectacular series of football games. Even better is that it makes for a spectacular weekend for DFS! Looking at the slates on DraftKings and FanDuel, it looks like we have a few different slates to play and this Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers game is going to be a popular one, for sure. The Cowboys were undefeated at home this season and there is a magic between Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb that we even identified for you before the season opened with Lamb on the cover of Fantasy Alarm’s Fantasy Football Draft Guide. You also have the added drama of Mike McCarthy coaching against his former team. But don’t sleep on Jordan Love and the Packers. His young receiver corps which features upstarts like Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks is primed to give the Cowboys secondary some fits. Let’s take a look at who we like for DFS contests this week.



Packers vs. Cowboys Prediction: Cowboys Home Record Stays Intact and Undefeated

The Cowboys are the team everyone (but Cowboys fans) love to root against and while Jordan Love is a great feelgood story, the Cowboys home record is almost impossible to go against. Dallas is not only 8-0 at home this season, they are also 7-1 against the spread in those games. The talent on the field is, obviously, first-rate, but home field advantage matters here. Typically, teams attack the Packers on the ground as their run defense has been one of the softest this season, but Dallas is a pass-heavy team and the tandem of Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb has been unstoppable this season. They'll try to get Tony Pollard more involved, but, given their success this season, there doesn't seem to be a need to deviate from what has been working. The Packers will certainly try to counter with a heavy dose of Aaron Jones, but ultimately, this is going to come down to Jordan Love and his receivers. The Dallas secondary has had success throughout the season, but the key is their pass-rush. Micah Parsons is likely to wreak havoc in the Packers bacfield which gives Dalas yet another advantage in this one.

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds

  • Spread: Cowboys -7.5
  • Moneyline:
    • Cowboys (-350)
    • Packers (+280)
  • Total: 50.5
  • Weather: Dome

Packers vs. Cowboys Injury Report:

Dallas Cowboys

Green Bay Packers

Best DFS Picks For Packers vs. Cowboys:

Dak Prescott, QB Dallas Cowboys

While everyone knows the Packers are soft against the run, we also need to understand their struggles against the pass as well. Green Bay may have only allowed an average of 206.8 passing yards per game, but they rank 26th in DVOA against the pass thanks to 21 passing touchdowns allowed and opposing quarterbacks posting an incredibly efficient 94.7 passer-rating against them. Dallas is still a pass-first team and with this home game, Dak should end the curse of first-round exits for the Cowboys.

Jordan Love, QB Green Bay Packers

The Dallas pass-rush is fierce and the coverage has been solid throughout the year, but let’s not count out Love who has put together a phenomenal season for himself; one that kind of eluded the spotlight. Over the Packers final eight games, Love averaged 268.8 passing yards with 18 touchdowns and just one interception. And he did that with his receiving corps banged-up and in and out of action with a variety of injuries. He even added two rushing touchdowns over his last three, so we know that if the pass-rush gets intense, he is more than capable of running out of trouble and able to extend plays with his legs. With a now healthy group of receivers, this could be a fun one! 

CeeDee Lamb, WR Dallas Cowboys

Is there any analysis needed here? Like I said above, we had Lamb on the cover of our draft guide this year for a reason and he did not let us down. Jaire Alexander or not, Lamb is going to be tough to cover and you can expect him to be the super-chalk this weekend. We’re more about taking the expensive “free square” than fading him in DFS this weekend.

Jayden Reed, WR Green Bay Packers

Though he’s been banged-up with a chest injury over the past few weeks, Reed only missed Week 16 against the Panthers and averaged 84.3 receiving yards over his last three games. He also had three touchdowns over that span and posted his first 100-yard effort. He runs 76-percent of his snaps out of the slot where he will see Jourdan Lewis, the weakest of Dallas’ cover guys.

Jake Ferguson, TE Dallas Cowboys

What a revelation he’s been for Dak Prescott who, for years, leaned on Dalton Schultz to help move the chains and be that big-bodied target inside the end zone. He’s done the same with Ferguson this season, as evidenced by 71 catches for 761 yards and five touchdowns. The Packers ranked 26th in DVOA against the tight end, allowing an average of 52.3 receiving yards per game, and gave up the 16th-most fantasy points pr game to the position. Expect Ferguson to do some end zone dancing in this one. 

Aaron Jones, RB Green Bay Packers

If the Dallas defense has an Achilles heel, it’s against the run and Jones is back at full-health and ready to roll against his former coach. We know Packers coach Matt LaFleur loves the run and this is going to be a spot where he will need to stick with it. The way you beat Dallas is with a strong ground presence and long, sustained drives; keep their offense off the field. Jones is also worked into the passing game which adds to the versatility of this offense and also raises his floor in full-point PPR scoring formats.

Other DFS Picks For Wild Card Weekend:

Tony Pollard, RB Dallas Cowboys

While Dallas is a passing team and underutilizes Pollard on a regular basis, you beat Green Bay on the ground. They rank 26th in DVOA against the run, they’ve allowed 128.3 rushing yards per game and have given up 14 rushing touchdowns on the season. We’re not expecting big yardage numbers, but if he can get into the end zone, he should be able to return value based on his DFS pricing.

Brandin Cooks, WR Dallas Cowboys

Cooks went from being an underutilized asset early in the season to a solid receiving option for fantasy players just after the Cowboys’ Week 8 bye. Since then, he’s had seven receiving touchdowns, including one in each of his last three games and is averaging six targets per game over his last four. If this Dallas passing attack heats up, Cooks should have significant involvement. 

Dontayvion Wicks, WR Green Bay Packers

Look who’s broken out over the last three games! While Wicks missed Week 17 with a chest injury, he’s managed three touchdowns over his last two games and three games ago, he posted six catches for 97 yards. With Christian Watson being a continued casualty of the injury bug, Wicks has had a great opportunity to build a better on-field rapport with Love. If the Packers fall behind, you can expect more passing and more work for Wicks.

Romeo Doubs, WR Green Bay Packers

While he’s been the healthiest receiver on this squad all year, Doubs is currently dealing with a chest injury of his own and is considered day-to-day. He doesn’t have that big of a ceiling, but if you’re looking for a safe floor, he’s got you covered. Three or four catches for something around 40-50 yards seems to be where he’s at and he’s got one score over his last two full games.

Christian Watson, WR Green Bay Packers

The hamstring issues have been a constant problem for Watson and he hasn’t played since Week 13. Still, when he is on the field, he stretches the defense vertically and can be a solid deep threat. Before this last injury, Watson had averaged 62 receiving yards per game with four touchdowns over a three-game span, so you know he’s capable of doing some damage. He’s probably more of a contrarian play than anything but still worth the look.

DFS NFL Value Plays:

Luke Musgrave, TE Green Bay Packers

Bit more of a dart-throw here, but I expect to see him play more snaps and see more targets than Tucker Kraft now that he’s at full healthy. Dallas is middle-of-the-pack regarding tight end coverage according to end-of-season DVOA rankings, but if the Packers get inside the 10-yard line, he could be a solid end zone target.

AJ Dillon, RB Green Bay Packers

Maybe some goal-line carries if the Packers invade the green zone? Definitely worth a shot as LaFleur will lean on Aaron Jones most of the time, but for that added punch in short-yardage situations, Dillon tends to be the guy. You won’t see much in rushing yards, but as a potential short-slate dart-throw, he could have some value.

Rico Dowdle, RB Dallas Cowboys

If the Cowboys grab a lead and are just looking to run the clock out late in the second half, then Dowdle could be that guy. The Cowboys seem to like him late in games and between-the-tackles, so if you’re looking for a salary-saving bargain running back and believe the Cowboys will absolutely dominate this game, then he’s your guy.

Jalen Tolbert, WR Dallas Cowboys

When we’re sifting though the Dallas bargain bin of receivers, Tolbert is the lean and it’s not just because he caught a touchdown in Week 18. He’s played a consistent 35-40-percent snap share with more work coming at the expense of Michael Gallup over the last two weeks and still twice as much as KaVontae Turpin. Any of the three can be considered dart-throws here, but I will side with the guys seeing the larger share of snaps and targets.

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