NFL Target Analysis: Week 16

The fantasy season has come to an end for most of us, which means now is a good time to look at the seasonal target leaderboard one last time. Situations can obviously change quite a bit from one season to the next, but in general, the most talented players tend to get the most targets. With that in mind, let’s look at the target leaders for 2019.

• I went and looked at last year’s Week 16 Target Analysis, specifically the target leaderboard. Last year’s top 10 is a who’s who of the best receivers in football. Five of last years top 10 wound up in the top 10 this year, and of the ones who didn’t, only Stefon Diggs played all 15 games. Jarvis Landry just missed the top 10 for the second year in a row. 

• With that in mind, I’ll have an awfully hard time deciding where to draft Tyler Boyd and D.J. Moore next season. They finished this season seventh and eight in targets respectively, but I’m not ready to declare them elite, especially Tyler Boyd . Both could have more, or at least different, competition for targets next season. Both players also figure to have new quarterbacks, and Moore will have new coaches as well. I think I’m more willing to trust Boyd and Moore after seeing so much overlap between the target leaders from 2018 and 2019. I think I would take the under on both being in the top 10 for targets in 2020, but I would have to think long and hard about the top 20. 

• DeVante Parker had five catches on 15 targets Sunday. It was a nice bounce back after he was held to nine targets total Weeks 14 and 15. Parker finishes the season tied for 23rd in targets, and he is tied with Robert Woods for ninth in targets since Week 10. Unlike Boyd and Moore, I’m not inclined to trust Parker. I think Parker benefited from being the only game in town and having a rare quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick who was only too happy to throw the ball downfield every time he dropped back. If he is healthy, I will probably draft Preston Williams ahead of Parker. I will be interested to see if that’s how their ADP shakes out this summer. 

• Michael Thomas broke Marvin Harrison’s single-season reception record on Sunday, and it should come as no surprise that he also leads the league in targets by a wide margin. In a league where even the top wide receivers will inevitably have two or three terrible games, Thomas has been remarkably consistent. He had double-digit fantasy points in every game this season, including at least 16.4 points in 15 games and at least 22 points in eight of his last nine. He finishes the fantasy season 90.8 fantasy points ahead of the next wide receiver, though it would be closer if Chris Godwin hadn’t gotten hurt in Week 15. The craziest part about Thomas’s season is he still has never had double-digit touchdowns in a season. Thomas wouldn’t be the first hall-of-fame wide receiver to never catch 10 touchdowns in a season (Andre Johnson just did it), and if anything, he’s even safer as the top receiver off the board for 2020 because he isn’t as dependent on touchdowns as someone like Mike Evans or Kenny Golladay .

• I think Odell Beckham ’s injury is going to give everyone license to draft him in the second round next season, and the fact he finishes the fantasy season 13th in targets lends credence to that idea. A healthier Beckham probably finishes ahead of Jarvis Landry in targets, and finishes much higher than 29th among wide receivers in fantasy points. That being said, this will be the second time in Beckham’s six-year NFL career he has played 16 games, so injuries will still be a concern.

• Tyler Lockett ’s 103 targets are 33 more than his previous career-high, and he should add to that total Sunday. He is the antithesis of Michael Thomas in terms of every-week production, but it’s nice to know he is at least capable of being more than a WR3 for fantasy. My concern for next season is that D.K. Metcalf surpasses Lockett as the number one target, and Lockett falls back below 100 targets. Still, his weekly upside is as high as just about anyone’s. 

• The back half of the target leaderboard can be a great place to find some guys ready to make a leap next season. In 2018, Chris Godwin tied for 50th on our list. Calvin Ridley finished 45th and John Brown was 42nd. When I look at the 2019 target leaderboard, the obvious picks to make a leap are Terry McLaurin and D.K. Metcalf. I think I might prefer Christian Kirk to both of them. I think he is capable of more than what he has shown to this point, and I am hopefully the offense will unleash him next season.