2026 NFL Draft: First Round Bold Predictions and Surprise Picks

The NFL Draft is impossible to predict perfectly. And, honestly, we like it that way. It would be FAR less fun if someone out there had all the answers. As Peter Schrager suggested recently, we even prefer to “put our phone away” to avoid draft spoilers and just enjoy the show. The NFL Draft is about embracing the chaos and enjoying the ride.

And, based on everything we are hearing so far, the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft might be the most turbulent we have seen in years. I mean, there currently isn’t even a consensus on which EDGE rusher will go at two overall. Some of the top players like Jeremiyah Love, Sonny Styles, and Caleb Downs all play positions that don’t typically go early in the draft. Tomorrow’s draft could be one of the most topsy-turvy with trades, reaches, shock, and awe.

2026 NFL Draft First Round Bold Predictions

With so much anarchy on the horizon, why not make a couple of bold predictions that we think could make tomorrow’s first round a memorable one? No one knows what will happen, and I’m sure some fans won’t WANT these picks to happen, but based on all the research we’ve done during the process, these three are entirely possible.  

Drew Allar Is Picked On Day One Of The 2026 NFL Draft

We all know that quarterback is the most important position in football. We’re also fairly confident that this is a “down” year for the position. But it’s also a down year across the board for elite players. Brett Veach of the Kansas City Chiefs recently said there are only “10-15 that you have in that ‘really want’ list”. The Seahawks have also made it clear they are willing to trade out of their pick, even with a division rival.

In a normal year, we might only see Fernando Mendoza go in the first round. But we know there is a lack of high-end talent in this class. Once the “blue chip” prospects across the board are gone, teams start to lean into premium positions. And there is no position more premium than quarterback. Considering how many teams are willing to trade back, how many QB-needy teams there are, and the prospect of getting that fifth-year option that comes with first-round picks, I can absolutely see a team moving back into the first to grab a QB. 

As for the options, someone might be willing to bet on the polished profile of Garrett Nussmeier or buy into the idea that Ty Simpson underperformed due to injury. But Drew Allar still remains the highest risk, highest reward option at the quarterback position despite not living up to the hype in his college career. I would not be surprised to see a team like the Arizona Cardinals trade back into the first to take a shot on the 22-year-old who at least has the physical traits you look for at the position. That’s what we predicted in our article discussing the Best Landing Spots for Quarterbacks in the 2026 NFL Draft. 

The Jets Draft Tight End Early For The Second Straight Year With Kenyon Sadiq or Eli Stowers

The NFL landscape is ever-changing. For many years, offenses were complex, and defenses were reactionary. In the modern NFL, defenses have become more complex, with offenses now having to adjust what they do to compensate. With more nickel coverage and disguised schemes preventing chunk plays, many offenses have operated closer to the line of scrimmage. That has seen a big shift towards more jumbo personnel.

In fact, this is the first time I can remember when I logged into the SumerSports personnel tendency page, and no team used 11 personnel on more than 70% of the snaps. For a while there, it was basically the Chiefs and Ravens using Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews as “big slot” wide receivers. But now it’s more common than ever with teams using a primary inline tight end and another as their pass-catchers. The Cardinals, Raiders, Browns, and Bears have prioritized this setup in recent drafts.

And a lot of those teams have used big resources to do it. The Browns and Bears drafted Harold Fannin Jr and Colston Loveland despite incumbent inline tight ends David Njoku and Cole Kmet. The Cardinals took Tip Reiman in the third round to play inline with Trey McBride in the slot. If wide receivers come off the board early, I could see the Jets taking the best one available at pick 16 or 33, which could be Kenyon Sadiq or Eli Stowers. I know they just took Mason Taylor in the second round last year, but the Raiders took Michael Mayer in the second round, then took Brock Bowers in the first, the very next year. As we explained here, a “big slot” tight end would be a great fit for what new OC Frank Reich likes to do.  The Jets are currently +1300 to take Sadiq over on DraftKings, and I’ve already sprinkled a little bit on that going into the first round.  

Mike Washington Jr’s Combine Boosts Him Into The First Round

Mike Washington Jr was one of the “best kept secrets” coming into the 2026 NFL Draft process. He was one of the few backs with a well-rounded profile to operate both on early downs and on pass downs. His path through college was long with stops at Buffalo and New Mexico State, but he finally popped off when he arrived in Arkansas. Both film grinders and analytics folks were starting to come around on him in the month or so following the Super Bowl. And I’m sure scouts were on board as well.

Then the 2026 NFL Combine happened. And I’m not sure anyone expected what we saw from Mike Washington Jr. He came out at 6’1”, 223 pounds, and ran a blazing, official, 4.33 forty-yard dash. Per Player Profiler, that is 99th percentile speed for the position in general and, when adjusted for size, literal 100th percentile athleticism. I can tell you right now that when I moved him up in my pre-draft running back rankings, it was not “double-counting” because I was not predicting Washington to come anywhere near this in his testing.

In this running back class, it’s largely viewed as Jeremiyah Love in Tier 1, no one in Tier 2, then a bunch of guys fighting to be the number 2 running back drafted in Tier 3. I would not be surprised if the raw athleticism for Washington gives him the boost to be that guy. Only one team is going to get Jeremiyah Love, but there are a couple of teams that have done extensive scouting on this class. And, if the Seattle Seahawks don’t find a trade partner back from 32, maybe the athletic Washington can fill the Kenneth Walker-sized hole that is left in their roster.

Check Out Our 2026 "Fantasy Wishing" Mock Draft!

If you think these picks are crazy, you should check out the recent episode of Alarm Fantasy Football that host Andrew Cooper recorded with guest Theo Gremminger of Fantasy Points. In that, they go through each pick of the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft to stretch their imagination and create the best possible first round landing spots for fantasy football!