The NFL Draft rules. There’s no other way to say it. And that goes double for the first round. All this hype for so long comes down to one night, kicking off tonight at 8 PM ET. The futures of these young men, as well as your favorite team, could very well be decided tonight. There’s a lot riding on it.

So why wouldn’t we put a little action on the draft tonight ourselves and have something personally riding on it? There are a LOT of ways to bet the NFL Draft, so we’re looking at every different angle to give ourselves a little skin in the game.

Below, I’ve got four levels of bets and predictions for you guys. And they are all listed below from lowest odds to highest, depending on how crazy you want to get. I’ve got the safest 2026 NFL Draft bets, which, to me, are slam dunks. I’ve got the 2026 best bets, which feel like layups. Then I have a couple of long-shot bets, which are heaves from half-court but are still realistic if you ask me. And finally, one last full-court shot that has absurd odds, but there is an argument that it is entirely possible. Either way, these 2026 NFL Draft bets and predictions should make the draft just a little more interesting tonight!

2026 NFL Draft Safest Bets - The Slam Dunks

Total Quarterbacks Drafted In The First Round Over 1.5 (-350 at BetMGM)

There are two realities we need to face about this draft. First, it’s not loaded with high-end talent. Second, a lot of the limited high-end talent is at positions that are not considered “premium” like running back, safety, and linebacker. Chiefs GM Brett Veach was pretty candid in saying there are about 10-15 guys on their “really want” list for the draft.

So what happens once that list of elite players runs out? Well, the first round doesn’t just end. Teams now need to figure out who is worthy from the best of the rest, and that often sees teams taking the second tier of guys at the premium positions. When you consider that there is no position more important than quarterback, the number of teams that could use one, and the fifth-year option that comes with first round picks, the odds are pretty good that a team trades back into the late first to take the QB2 off the board. 

KC Concepcion Drafted Position Under 24.5 (-130 at DraftKings)

The hype around Jordyn Tyson has grown substantially over the last week or so to the point that he’s now the odds-on favorite at BetMGM at -125 (last week on Tuesday, he was sitting at +650, so hopefully you jumped on that). But there is another player who has gained substantial steam as well, and that is  Texas A&M wide receiver KC Concepcion.

What is keeping his prices low is that there is a debate around the order in which some wide receivers with similar skillsets should go: Makai Lemon, Omar Cooper Jr., and KC Concepcion. But here’s the thing - they all should go early. After what just happened in free agency with Romeo Doubs and Wan’Dale Robinson being the highest-paid players to change organizations, I think teams are going to get froggy at the WR position, especially after the first 10 picks or so. And there are arguments for Concepcion to actually be considered within the top three in this class. 

 

 


 

2026 NFL Draft Best Odds Bets - The Layups

Ravens Offensive Lineman (+130 at DraftKings)

Everyone on the planet, including me in my final mock draft, has the Ravens taking Olaivavega Ioane. But the crazy thing here is that you don’t even need to bet on them specifically taking Ioane. And that’s because DraftKings will give you +130 to bet on them taking any offensive lineman at all. The next best odds are wide receiver at +290, and tight end at +450, but the consensus right now is that they go line, then address that later. So this one feels pretty good.    

Minnesota Vikings Position of 1st Drafted Player Safety (+130 at DraftKings)

This is another one where the industry at large is fairly confident the Vikings take a safety in the first round. The debate right now seems to be centered around whether it will be Dillon Thieneman or Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, but that doesn’t really matter for this bet. In fact, if Caleb Downs slides and they manage to trade up and get him, that doesn’t matter either. This is a great draft to try to nab a Harrison Smith replacement, and we’re betting that the Vikings go with the chalk. 

David Bailey To Be Picked Third Overall (+250 at DraftKings)

There is a very unusual battle going on right now in the overall draft space between the “insiders” and the bettors. The “insiders” and draft pundits have had David Bailey going second overall to the Jets for a long time. Nearly 90% of mock drafts have had him going there. Yet the bettors aren’t buying it with it nearly being a pick-em between the “safer” Bailey and the riskier Arvell Reese.

As we laid out in our updated mock draft, a LOT of the signs point towards the Jets actually pivoting to Reese here. That includes canceling a top 30 visit with David Bailey. Maybe they felt the need to use that visit on another player, but this is the second overall pick we are talking about. Given the pick-em at two, I find the best way to leverage this situation is to bet on Bailey to go third overall with the extra juice. I think the Cardinals take him, but there are a lot of teams that could consider trading up to three to snag him, too.  

2026 NFL Draft Long Shot Bets - The Half Court Heaves

Kenyon Sadiq To The New York Jets (+2000 at BetMGM)

The Jets need pass-catchers. There is no doubt about that. After Garrett Wilson, there is no clear number two target on the team. As of now, it’s probably Breece Hall. Many have them taking a wide receiver, but I have a sneaking suspicion they go another way.

As we pointed out in our article on Best Tight End Landing Spots, the tide his shifted in the modern NFL. More teams than ever are using multiple tight end sets with an inline tight end and then another guy who is basically a big wide receiver. Frank Reich has a well-documented history of this exact setup with guys like Antonio Gates, Zach Ertz, and Eric Ebron (79% of his snaps were run from a WR spot while scoring 13 touchdowns for Reich in 2018). We could see multiple wide receivers going early, leaving Kenyon Sadiq as the best pass-catcher on the board. I know they took Mason Taylor in the second last year, but the Raiders took Michael Mayer in the second in 2023 before taking Brock Bowers in the first in 2024. At +2000, we are sprinkling something there. 

Drew Allar 2nd QB Selected (+4000 at BetMGM)

As of right now, we can be confident that Fernando Mendoza will be the first quarterback drafted. After that, it gets dicey. Ty Simpson, out of Alabama, is the betting favorite as of now. And he has his very vocal backers out there, as SEC players often do. But he’s not without his flaws, and there's no guarantee a team believes in his upside. The same goes for the polished Garrett Nussmeier - as the son of an NFL coach, he has a decent floor, but what exactly is the ceiling for a guy with his size and traits?

Then there is Drew Allar. He was the hyped prospect with the prototypical size and strength. But he never quite put it together at Penn State. That has folks off the prospect who was once considered the top QB for this class. But we have to remember that teams aren’t necessarily drafting what you were in college, but what you can be at the next level. That’s what we saw with Josh Allen, who had middling college numbers. I would not at all be shocked if an NFL team looked at the raw ability of the 22-year-old Allar and decided that was the high-risk, high-reward move they wanted to make as the second QB. And, at this line, you can bet $5 to win $200 if you want. 

 

 


 

2026 NFL Longest Shot Bet - From The Parking Lot

Drew Allar To Be Drafted In The First Round (+10000  BetMGM)

Look, if we are willing to bet that Allar is the second quarterback drafted, why not go just a little bit further right? And what’s more fun than a legitimate 10,000 to 1 bet that we’ve already laid out a case for being reasonable? We are already willing to bet that two quarterbacks are picks in the first round, so why not put two and two together here and make that Drew Allar?

I wrote up my Bold Predictions for the 2026 NFL Draft with a full explanation on why a team like the Arizona Cardinals might consider trading back into the late first to take a quarterback - and why that quarterback could be Drew Allar. Now, we aren’t telling you to be the house on this one, as obviously the odds are great for a reason. But we do like betting both the odds of him being the 2nd QB and also of him going in the first round. Why? Well, a team like the Steelers taking Ty Simpson at pick 21 negates that first bet, but it doesn’t stop another team from trading into the first and taking a THIRD quarterback in the first round. So we are also sprinkling this one to not only juice our bet on Allar but also protect us against that fringe scenario.