Who's ready for some NFL Week 11 picks against the spread? I know I am, especially after the debacle on Thursday night when Joe Burrow and Mark Andrews went down with season-ending injuries, killing most of our bets and player props. It happens. You can't do anything about injuries and you cannot let a losing night because of that alter your process in any way, shape or form. We roll on as if nothing happens and look to Sunday's games to find more ways to make some money. We've got a great slate of game to look at while there are a few too many double-digit point spreads, we know exactly how to attack these games.
NFL Week 11 Best Bets:
While I hate following the public money (76%), this is a game and pick that just make sense to me and there's no real reason to go the other way. The Browns defense has been fantastic all season long and it seems highly unlikely Kenny Pickett and company are going to be able to put up too many points on them. On the other side, with Cleveland starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson, their offense is either headed right down the toilet or they're going to lean so heavily on Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt, that the clock is just going to perpetually run and help carry us to what should probably be the lowest-scoring game of the entire season.
Pick: Under 33 (-110)
I'll be the first one to tell you how much I love what Joshua Dobbs is doing with the Vikings right now. Not only do I love the feelgood aspect of the story, but that Dobbs is, more or less, a rocket scientist masquerading as a football player. But the hype is so strong right now, I'm having a very difficult time taking the Vikings, even though I'm not the biggest Denver fan. We've learned that Justin Jefferson will not be activated in time for the game, we're still awaiting news as to whether Alexander Mattison will clear concussion protocol and you know me…when the world starts popping off about Vikings playoff/Super Bowl chances and what awards Dobbs could win, I have to run the other way. I'm not a huge fan of some of the recent hype we're hearing for the Broncos and they're new playoff chances, but I do like the steady improvements we've seen and how Sean Payton is leading this offense.
Pick: Broncos -2.5 (-110)
If you read the NFL Week 11 DFS Playbook, then you probably know where I'm headed with this one. First and foremost, the Dolphins are a significantly better team than the Raiders, and that's probably being too nice. Mike McDaniel is a superior coach and knows exactly how to handle an upstart team like the Raiders, who have won two in a row. He'll attack them heavily on the ground, especially with the return of De'Von Achane, but he'll also let Tua Tagovailoa sling the rock and find Tyreek Hill downfield for some big games. The Dolphins defense ranks 22nd overall, but we are all very aware of the Miami flu which could run rampant through this Raiders locker room. Just because they live in Las Vegas doesn't mean they are immune to the allure of the Miami nightlife. A case of the Miami flu coupled with baking on the sidelines could be all we need for the Fins to cover this big-ass spread.
Pick: Dolphins -13.5 (-110)
This could very well be the game of the week with its 48-point game total and two teams with potentially potent offenses and less-than-stellar defenses. I expect to see C.J. Stroud slinging the rock at home as he typically does and I expect Kyler Murray to take another step forward in his return. Not to mention, James Conner who was activated from IR last week and looked liek a beast right from the start. Neither defense will contain the opposing offense and I see this one being a back-and-forth battle all game. I think it stays reasonably close throughout. This game sat at Texans -5.5 for most of the week, but on Saturday, it jumped to six points and while that still works in my favor, I am going to err on the side of caution and use the alternate spread to get that extra half-point back. Not a lot of added juice for the extra, so I'm in.
Pick: Cardinals +6.5 (-120)
Favorite NFL Week 11 Player Props:
- Justin Fields Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
- Brock Purdy over 258.5 passing yards (-115)
- Trevor Lawrence over 1.5 passing TD (+100)
- Sam LaPorta over 4.5 receptions (-120)
- Bobby Okereke Over 9.5 tackles + assists (-145)
- 3-Leg Anytime TD Parlay (+398): Austin Ekeler -150; Brian Robinson -140; James Conner -140
**all lines & odds courtesy of BetMGM