As the 2025 fantasy football draft season is nearing, there is one name that keeps bringing controversy along with with him among managers and that person is Patrick Mahomes. The Kansas City Chiefs' phenom QB has been a fantasy monster in years past, but current trends and team situation mandate fading him at his current average draft position (ADP) as the smart play in 2025. As a fifth-round ADP (pick 59.5) QB6, Mahomes is being paid a premium that may not be justified in fantasy production. Here's a breakdown of the reasoning behind why you should let another team in your league draft Mahomes, with two good alternatives available in Bo Nix and Dak Prescott.

 

 

 

The Case Against Patrick Mahomes

Declining Production

Mahomes' fantasy resume is spotless, his 2018 campaign (5,097 yards, 50 TDs) set the bar, and he hasn't graded lower than QB8 in total fantasy points as a full-time starter. The last two years, however, were certainly setbacks. In 2023, he passed for 4,183 yards and 27 touchdowns, and in 2024, his numbers dropped to 3,928 yards and 26 touchdowns, hitting a career low of 6.8 yards per attempt. He averaged a mere 17.6 fantasy points per game in 2024, 12th among quarterbacks, far removed from his 26.1 per game in 2018. Just 37.6% of his games the last two years have registered top-12 scores, down from an 88.2% success rate in 2022. The trend suggests that Mahomes, while the best in life, may not deliver the fantasy superiority his ADP demands.

Supporting Cast Issues

The Chiefs' offense has lacked a lot of continuity since Mahomes' prime years. The 2022 Tyreek Hill trade stripped them of an explosive deep threat, and last year in 2024, Rashee Rice's season-ending knee injury reduced him to playing only three full games, and he's also going to be suspended in the 2025 season. Travis Kelce, at 35, posted a career-low 10.6 yards per catch and 823 receiving yards, with just five touchdowns. Although Xavier Worthy and veteran Hollywood Brown are promising, the passing corps is not consistently developed. The Chiefs' O-line was also inconsistent as Mahomes was sacked six times in Super Bowl LIX, a season high. Those issues created a season-low 6.6 average depth of target (aDOT) in 2023 that continued to 2024, which curtailed Mahomes' big-play upside.

Offensive Scheme Shift

Play-calling under head coach Andy Reid has turned conservative, with an emphasis on a run-based attack with Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco. The Chiefs ranked last in the league in 20-plus-yard plays in 2024, a far cry from Mahomes' early-season boom. The transition to a grinding, low-aDOT offense (6.9 in 2024 vs. a career 8.0) has overshadowed his fantasy ceiling. While Mahomes' arm ability is unparalleled, the emphasis on efficiency over explosiveness within the offense reduces the chances of him scoring a 4,500-yard, 35+ touchdown season fantasy players dream of at his ADP.

Expensive Draft Cost

In spite of these red flags, Mahomes is now drafted as QB6 with a fifth-round ADP (59.5) frequently prior to quarterbacks with equal or higher potential. His name value and three Super Bowl rings keep his draft worth at an artificially high level, yet what is observed is that Mahomes has yet to provide relative value according to his ADP for a number of seasons. Short of him falling into a later round, drafting him over elite skill-position types costs in opportunity cost.

 

 


 

Better Value Alternatives

If you’re looking to pivot from Mahomes, the 2025 quarterback class offers plenty of depth, with several players providing similar or better fantasy production at a lower cost. Here are two standout options:

Bo Nix (Denver Broncos)

  • ADP: 80 (QB8)
  • 2024 Performance: 316.1 fantasy points (QB7), 3,775 yards, 29 TDs, 430 rushing yards

Bo Nix was a 2024 fantasy sleeper who busted out after Week 5 to score 317.2 fantasy points, edging out Mahomes. His dual-threat capabilities (8th in QB rushing yards) and Sean Payton's imaginative play-calling make him a breakout candidate. The Broncos bring back a good O-line and add Evan Engram, Pat Bryant, and RJ Harvey to the mix, improving Nix's situation. 2025 Estimates: 299.67 fantasy points, but his second-half pace (25.35 FPPG last 10 games) provides top-5 upside. Three rounds off Mahomes, Nix provides top-end scoring with upside.

Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)

  • ADP: 103 (QB13)
  • 2024 Performance: 116.5 fantasy points (QB31, 8 games), 1,978 yards, 11 TDs

Prescott's 2024 campaign was ruined by injury, but he's no more than a calendar year removed from a QB4 season (20.2 FPPG) in 2023. The Cowboys have beefed up the offense with George Pickens entering the mix alongside CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson, one of the NFL's best passing tandems. Dallas' poor run game and questionable defense will see them be forced to throw early and often, even with a difficult schedule, giving volume to Prescott. Projected for 281.64 fantasy points in 2025, Prescott's history of 4,500-yard, 30+ touchdown seasons qualifies him as a ninth-round steal.
 

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