Fantasy Football Targets 2025: NFL Target Chart & Receiving Totem Pole

The first time I showed Jon Impemba and Howard Bender the Target Totem Pole, they were mad. They asked how long I had been making this, and I said, “Many years”. It’s always been a part of my own process. It’s something I would do every season before I finalized my rankings. And it never crossed my mind to maybe share it with the Fantasy Alarm FAmily until I showed it to them. So, sorry about that.

For the last couple of years, I have shared the Target Totem Pole in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide. Last year was the first year we kept it updated throughout the season with a report each week (we’ll continue to do that this year). If you are a Fantasy Alarm member and ask nicely, I might even be able to provide a copy of your own for you to tinker with. 

This little grid here helps us identify the can’t-miss picks. It helps us identify the areas of uncertainty, where breakouts are born. It’s the backbone of our Yin & Yang Tight End strategy. And, for years, it was just sitting in a folder on my desktop. So, enough, talking about me getting yelled at by the bosses - let’s get into what it actually is.

2025 Fantasy Football NFL Pre-Draft Target Report

Why do we do this? Here’s the simplest way I can break it down.

Let’s take targets plus carries and call that a “look”. Over the last five years, every wide receiver to finish top 24 in PPR has averaged 6+ looks per game. That’s a pace of over 100 looks on the season.

In fact, 119 of those 120 players averaged 6+ targets. The only exception was 2023 Deebo Samuel, who averaged ~5.9 targets per game but also had 37 carries for 225 yards and 5 TDs. He’s the one exception over the last five years. So you essentially need to be on a 100 target pace unless you are going to have abnormal rushing production for a WR.

Over the last four years, since the NFL expanded to a 17-game season, there has been one instance of three players on the same team all getting 100+ targets per Pro Football Focus. And that season has an asterisk on it because it was the 2022 Vikings who traded for T.J. Hockenson mid-season. Adam Thielen was no longer on a 100+ target pace after the trade but he made it to 100 because he accumulated a lot of targets beforehand. Even accounting for that year and some of the rare other instances like the 2020 Commanders (yes, J.D. McKissic got 100+ targets), it happens about 3% of the time. It’s not something we bet on.

What does that all mean? If you think a guy can be a WR2 in fantasy or better, you need him to get 100+ looks. And, more realistically, 100+ targets. And, to get those, you need him to be a top two target on his team. Otherwise, you are projecting an anomaly. And we don’t project anomalies. 

How Does The Target Totem Pole Work?

It’s pretty simple. We rank the players on each team from left to right in terms of who we believe gets the most targets. Then we color code them based on our confidence level of what target range they will fall in. This will help us not only identify who is locked in, but it will also help us find pockets of uncertainty for us to take stabs on. 

Since this is the predraft version, we aren’t going to project injuries (if a guy is currently hurt like Brandon Aiyuk, that will obviously be factored in). So, anyone below in blue or green we expect to get 100+ targets and have top 24 WR upside. Anyone outside of that, you need to use your imagination to figure out how they get the targets we need. And I absolutely encourage you to do that because that’s how you get an advantage if you are right.

Like we did last year, we will continue to update this puppy weekly based on targets per week. Good luck out there gang and let me know in the Fantasy Alarm Discord what you think!

Fantasy Football Target Chart 2025 Draft Guide

Here's how the color coding and labeling works. For more information on the roles (split end, flanker etc.) and how they transalte to fantasy, give this article a quick read. Knowing those terms and alignments will make your football viewing experience richer regardless of fantasy.

Fantasy Football Target Totem Pole Advice & Takeaways

Clear Top Two

Arizona Cardinals

• Trey McBride
• Marvin Harrison Jr
  • Last year McBride got 147 targets while Marvin Harrison Jr as a rookie got 116. I did a full stats/film study on Marvin Harrison Jr, which can be found here but my takeaway is that Kyler Murray was not getting through his reads, either throwing the ball right away or scrambling. If Murray can take a step forward, so can MHJ, with the targets being more evenly distributed. Otherwise, it should be more of the same which would be good news for Trey McBride. Michael Wilson plays a full-time role out wide but is more of a sacrificial X, while Greg Dortch is a part-time slot guy. Not much value there without an injury to the top two. 

Cincinnati Bengals

• Ja'Marr Chase
• Tee Higgins
  • The consistency and predicability of this offense makes it one of the most reliable for fantasy. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are the guys. Keep an eye on the battle between Andrei Iosivas and Jermaine Burton in case one of them goes down. Mike Gesicki also gets a boost in relevancy if one of them is out but is otherwise difficult to trust. Blocking tight end Drew Sample plays enough to make the WR3/pass down TE situation more of a rotation.

Cleveland Browns

• Jerry Jeudy
• David Njoku
  • Based on recent history, it SHOULD be Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku at the top of this pecking order. They certainly earned their targets last year. The curveball is the uncertainty at QB. You never know when a QB switch could come and now the new QB is targeting guys like Cedric Tillman, Diontae Johnson, or whoever they work with in practice. That said, Joe Flacco earning and keeping the job could see Jeudy and Njoku drastically outperforming their ADP.  

Dallas Cowboys

• CeeDee Lamb
• George Pickens
  • With George Pickens in town, we expect him to play split end with CeeDee Lamb retaining his slot/flanker role. That should create a dichotomy similar to what we see with Ja'Marr Chase/Tee Higgins or Mike Evans/Chris Godwin. That obviously pushes Jalen Tolbert out of the WR2 chair and hurts the upside for Jake Ferguson. 

Denver Broncos

• Courtland Sutton
• Evan Engram
  • There could be some debate as to whether Evan Engram can show up day one and command targets. But the “joker” role he is walking in to is an appealing one for fantasy. RJ Harvey could also get a ton of targets in his role out of the backfield - even Javonte Williams was top five last year. Marvin Mims, Pat Bryant, and Troy Franklin will battle to try to play a full-time role opposite Courtland Sutton, but no WR other than Sutton played more than 50% of the snaps last year.

Los Angeles Rams

• Puka Nacua
• Davante Adams
  • We don’t know for sure who will get more targets of these two. It honestly might not matter a whole lot, as they both could easily clear 125. With DeMarcus Robinson gone, Tutu Atwell becomes the third fiddle. Tyler Higbee will attempt to fend off rookie Terrance Ferguson at the tight end position. 

Seattle Seahawks

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Cooper Kupp
  • In New Orleans, fullback Adam Prentice played the second most backfield snaps only to Alvin Kamara. That and the usage of a blocking TE often takes the WR3 out of the game. We should see similar high consolidation with Klint Kubiak’s scheme in SEA. Whoever wins the starting TE job out of Noah Fant or Elijah Arroyo could easily outperform their ADP as well, as that is the role George Kittle and Jonnu Smith play in this scheme.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Chris Godwin
• Mike Evans
  • These two have earned the right to be in this spot. But it might not be that simple this year. Not only do they have Jalen McMillan but they also drafted Emeka Egbuka in the first round. Cade Otton popped when Evans/Godwin were hurt last year but it would take a lot of injuries for him to be a focal point now. 

High Consolidation

Miami Dolphins

• Tyreek Hill
• Jaylen Waddle
• Jonnu Smith
• De’von Achane
  • This team heavily features a fullback and blocking tight end, which highly consolidates the targets among the top few players. Last year, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle dealt with various ailments, which saw Jonnu Smith pop for fantasy. It will be interesting to see how it shakes out this year. But I would project Hill and Waddle as the top two. De'Von Achane quietly also ran 178 routes from a WR spot, the second most since David Johnson ran 193 in 2016. 

Minnesota Vikings

• Justin Jefferson
• Jordan Addison
• T.J. Hockenson
  • Justin Jefferson is going to get his. After him there is a question between Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. In prior years, the general volume was high enough that you could feel at least okay about everyone. If JJ McCarthy comes in slinging the ball like Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold, they could all have appeal. But there’s a chance one of Hockenson or Addison is the odd man out. It's historically a bad bet to be in on both unless you are fading Justin Jefferson and, to me, that's the far worse bet.

Philadelphia Eagles

• AJ Brown
• DeVonta Smith
• Dallas Goedert
• Saquon Barkley
  • Easily one of the most highly consolidated offenses. Dallas Goedert can be hard to trust week to week as the third target but he does offer a decent floor. The other three guys are locked into your lineup every week. 

San Francisco 49ers

• George Kittle
• Jauan Jennings
• Ricky Pearsall
• Christian McCaffrey
  • Another super highly consolidated offense due to the fullback usage. Beware, though, that Brandon Aiyuk will return at some point and, if he takes his full-time role back, one of Jauan Jennings or Ricky Pearsall will end up a part time player. And that would happen when it matters most for fantasy playoffs.

One Stud, Then Uncertainty

Atlanta Falcons

• Drake London
  • Drake London caught 100 passes on 158 targets so he is locked in. After him there is an opportunity for one of Darnell Mooney or Kyle Pitts to step up. There have been some trade rumors surrounding Pitts, and we discussed in full in this article why he doesn’t quite fit the scheme. A trade would make things easie for everyone. As of now, Ray-Ray McCloud is set to play slot, which is a part-time role due to the usage of blocking tight end Charlie Woerner. 

Baltimore Ravens

• Zay Flowers
  • Last year, Zay Flowers led this team in targets with 74, which isn’t much to write home about, but he’s now led the team in targets in each of his first two years in the league. The bet on Mark Andrews at ADP is that he wasn’t fully recovered early on last season following Tightrope surgery and a car accident. There is a chance he continues to struggle, which would open the door for guys like Rashod Bateman, DeAndre Hopkins, and Isaiah Likely. 

Detroit Lions

• Amon-Ra St. Brown
  • ARSB is going to get his. And then we are back to last year’s battle of Sam LaPorta vs. Jameson Williams. Neither one of them made it to 100 targets last year but Williams came close. There were some reports that LaPorta may have been dealing with an injury, especially early on, so he could bounce back as well. Or they could just spread the ball around and cap everyone’s upside. 

Houston Texans

• Nico Collins 
  • Nico Collins is dialed in. The loss of Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell leaves a lot of uncertainty after Collins. Christian Kirk and Dalton Schultz are the veterans, though we kind of know who they are at this stage. That makes taking stabs on the rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel all the more appealing from an upside perspective.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Brian Thomas Jr
  • Brian Thomas Jr was the breakout star of the season last year. The best bet for upside, along with him, is obviously Travis Hunter, who they selected second overall in the 2025 NFL Draft. But we don’t know for sure if he will be a full-time offensive player or part-time offense and defense. If Hunter falls flat, Dyami Brown looks to have a full-time role opposite Brian Thomas. Tight end Brenton Strange will do his best Cade Otton impression for Liam Coen, where he has upside if one of BTJ or Hunter gets hurt (or Hunter doesn’t live up to expectations). 

Las Vegas Raiders

• Brock Bowers
  • Bowers is a star - he’s going off the board as TE1. Jakobi Meyers inherited a lot of targets following the Davante Adams trade, but they drafted two new wide receivers in Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton to compete. In an interview, Thornton actually mentioned that Jack Bech has been used all over the formation for Chip Kelley in camp. Meyers is still the best bet for safety, but the rookies have untapped potential that always intrigues us. 

Los Angeles Chargers

• Ladd McConkey
  • Guys like Ladd McConkey are why we do this exercise, as he topped the chart last year and proved to be a phenomenal value. He’s dialed in, but there is a lot of uncertainty after him. Tre Harris is the rookie upside play, while Quentin Johnston and Mike Williams are the veteran presence. We were hoping the Chargers would draft Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland, but instead, Tyler Conklin will start with rookie Oronde Gadsden II being the wildcard. 

New Orleans Saints

• Chris Olave
  • Last year, Klint Kubiak’s scheme made things highly consolidated among Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Alvin Kamara. Kellen Moore’s Eagles were fairly highly consolidated as well among AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Saquon Barkley. But the addition of Brandin Cooks, along with the injury recovery for Shaheed, throws a bit of a wrench in things. And will Moore target Kamara in the pass game at the level he is used to?

New York Giants

• Malik Nabers
  • Wan’Dale Robinson got 140 targets last year. And he didn’t crack 700 yards. The question now is whether he deserves those targets again. The Giants didn’t really add anything to threaten him with Darius Slayton returning and Theo Johnson at tight end. If he is utilized at that level and can be more efficient with Russell Wilson, there is some upside there. 

New York Jets

• Garrett Wilson
  • The passing projections for Justin Fields with the sportsbooks are low. But he did support DJ Moore despite low volume, so Wilson isn’t necassrrily a bad pick if you get a decent value. After him it gets scary. We are rooting for the rookie tight end Mason Taylor, though it’s unclear what his role is. Allen Lazard and Josh Reynolds will battle to see who the best journeyman is. Breece Hall will get some looks, too, but mobile QBs don’t always target the RB heavily. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

• DK Metcalf
  • This just got interesting. They traded for DK Metcalf. Traded away George Pickens. Then signed Aaron Rodgers. Metcalf is the clear top dog. Arthur Smith is not scared to use a big rotation of tight ends, which could see Pat Freiermuth as the second target. The top WR options are Calvin Austin, Robert Woods, or wild card Roman Wilson but Smith has had seasons where no one but the WR1 plays more than 40% of the snaps even, like 2023.

Tennessee Titans

• Calvin Ridley
  • Calvin Ridley is the man. Down the stretch last year tight end Chig Okonkwo actually got decent looks. But they added veterans Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson as well as rookies Elic Ayomnar, Chimere Dike, and Xavier Restrepo. That really opens up the battle behind Ridley for rookie QB Cameron Ward. This is a spot for late dart throws.

Washington Commanders

• Terry McLaurin
  • Deebo Samuel is definitely the front runner here for targets after McLaurin. If his usage in the run game continues, that’s an added bonus. But old reliable Zach Ertz is back for another run and he proved a fairly reliable target for Jayden Daniels last year. 

Wide Open

Buffalo Bills

• Khalil Shakir
• Dalton Kincaid
• Keon Coleman
• Joshua Palmer
• Elijah Moore
  • Like last year, this one is open for the taking if someone can run with it. But, after the Stefon Diggs era, the new set up where they don’t heavily lean on any one player might be by design. Khalil Shakir just barely made it to 100 targets, but his low aDOT style of play caps his upside to some degree in formats like standard and half PPR. Dalton Kincaid is intriguing with his TE eligibility and was reportedly hurt for much of last year. Keon Coleman, Joshua Palmer, and Elijah Moore will compete for outside roles, making them the high-risk, high-reward picks.

Carolina Panthers

• Tetairoa McMillan 
• Adam Thielen
• Xavier Leggette
• Ja’Tavion Sanders
• Jalen Coker
  • If Tet McMillan is as advertised, he should be the top target on this team. But rookies don’t always hit or hit right away, as we have seen. Adam Thielen led this team down the stretch last year when he returned. Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker will be left competing with each other for snaps. If there’s no clear top WR or top two, there’s also a chance Ja’Tavion Sanders could sneak in as a top target - we always root for the tight end in situations like this. The return of Tommy Tremble in free agency does pour a little cold water on that.

Chicago Bears

• DJ Moore
• Rome Odunze
• Luther Burden
• Colston Loveland
• Cole Kmet
  • DJ Moore should be the top target. But he himself expressed uncertainty as to whether he would touch the ball as much as he has in the past. Not only is it a new offense with Ben Johnson in town, but they just added two rookies in Luther Burden and Colston Loveland to the mix. Part of that makes us want to avoid this team, but on the flip side, Ben Johnson’s scheme offers a lot of upside for fantasy football if you pick the right guy. 

Green Bay Packers

• Matthew Golden
• Jayden Reed
• Tucker Kraft
• Romeo Doubs
• Dontayvion Wicks
  • We’ll put Matthew Golden at the top as the first round wide receiver has the most intriguing upside. But we really don’t know how this pecking order is going to shake out. Jayden Reed has been the most consistent, but he doesn’t really play a full-time role (sporadic carries do help make up for that). And Tucker Kraft has that coveted TE eligibility. Christian Watson reportedly won’t be back until late season so we can factor him out.

Indianapolis Colts

• Michael Pittman
• Josh Downs
• Alec Pierce
• Tyler Warren
  • Michael Pittman is your split end, Alec Pierce is the field stretching flanker, Josh Downs is the slot guy, and they finally have a full-time tight end in Tyler Warren. Throw a potential QB competition between Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones on there and it opens things up. Michael Pittman offers the best mix of role and target earning ability if his back in healthy. Josh Downs could have big upside if they actually give him a full-time role though they have not done that yet. Alec Pierce’s role can be inconsistent from week to week but he’s capable of boom plays. And Tyler Warren as a rookie tight end is a complete wildcard. 

Kansas City Chiefs

• Travis Kelce
• Rashee Rice
• Xavier Worthy
• Hollywood Brown
  • For the first time in a long time, the Chiefs are kind of wide open here. I believe Travis Kelce will retain his role after catching 97 passes while missing a game last year. But some think he could be falling off. Rashee Rice was a target leader before getting hurt last season - he seems healthy and could resume that job. Xavier Worthy didn’t do a ton with the targets he inherited last year but he also gets some run work which is a nice boost. And we never quite got to see how high the snap counts for Hollywood Brown could go as he returned last in the year.

New England Patriots

• Stefon Diggs
• Hunter Henry
• Kyle Williams
• Kayshon Boutte
• Demario Douglas
  • The Patriots will once again enter the season wide open here. Assuming he is healthy, Stefon Diggs is the favorite to lead. Hunter Henry led the team last year. They will likely use a blocking TE, Austin Hooper, and fullback often with Josh McDaniels, so that leaves one full-time spot open opposite Diggs, really. The rookie Kyle Williams will battle the incumbents for that. Rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson is also a dark horse for a decent target share - James White had seasons with 123 and 95 targets under Josh McDaniels.

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