Expectations For Marvin Harrison Jr. In Fantasy Football Dynasty Leagues

There is a never-ending battle in the football analysis world between the data crowd and the film junkies. Neither side thinks the other is “seeing the whole picture”. And, honestly, they aren’t. So why don’t we stop arguing about it and just look at the whole picture?
To review the rookie season for Marvin Harrison Jr and project his outlook for dynasty fantasy football, I first combed through the stats from numerous sites like Pro Football Focus, Fantasy Points Data Suite, Player Profiler, Pro Football Reference, etc. And then I watched 500+ routes of his from various angles via NFL Pro’s Film Room. Not just the targets - every route (Pro Football Focus graded him as the 13th best run blocking WR out of 138 that played at least 100 run snaps so that's not a concern).
The stats and film combined should give us the whole picture so we can better understand what went right, what went wrong, and how we can value Marvin Harrison Jr for dynasty fantasy football leagues moving forward. And all that starts with Arizona Cardinals quarterback, Kyler Murray.
Kyler Murray’s Tendencies
There is a bit of a misconception about Kyler Murray’s playstyle. We assume that most of his plays are long, drawn-out scrambles where he holds the ball forever. And he certainly does that at times. But you might be surprised to learn how often he’s getting the ball out his hands quickly. And how quickly.
In 2024, 48.1% of Kyler’s dropbacks took less than 2.5 seconds per Pro Football Focus. If you take a sample size of the QBs who had 350 or more dropbacks, that puts Kyler in the top 5 out of 26 QBs (only Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, and Drake Maye had a higher percentage of their dropbacks last under 2.5 seconds). According to Fantasy Points Data Suite, if you drop that number to 2 seconds, he’s in the top three QBs.
On the plays under 2.5 seconds, his time to throw of 1.86 seconds was top 10 among all qualified players and, of the players previously mentioned, he would only be behind Rodgers and Tua. What that all means is that, when he does get the ball out quickly, he was getting it out VERY quickly. And, with a guy like Trey McBride as a weapon, that’s not a bad idea as you can see in the clip below.

Naturally, given that he’s in the top five for percentage of throws under 2.5 second, he’s in the bottom five for percentage of dropbacks that last longer than 2.5 second. Which is surprising given how we view him as a scrambler. When he does have those players, however, they are fairly long.
His plays that lasted over 2.5 seconds had an average time to throw of 3.8 seconds. That’s up there with Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, etc. who are also among the league leaders in scrambles. Here’s an example of a longer play where he did find Marvin Harrison Jr.

When you boil it all down, the numbers and tape are showing the same thing. Kyler Murray is often getting the ball out quickly. Or he’s bailing and extending the play. But you’ll see that he’s rarely hanging in the pocket to let plays develop. It's a lot of quick plays or long plays without that many intermediate plays.
And the kicker is that, per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Murray was actually good when he did hang in there. He actually had the highest completion percentage among qualified quarterbacks when targeting the secondary target at 83.9%. Despite his success there, he only threw to those players 56 times which was 18th among QBs. When he did hang in the pocket, he was able to make some really nice throws, including this one to Marv.

Marvin Harrison Jr’s Usage
As a rookie, Marvin Harrison Jr was thrown into the most difficult role for NFL wide receivers. He was immediately made the split end (X), who plays out wide and often tethers his foot to the line. In that spot, you typically draw the top corner and are susceptible to the jam at the line.
In this capacity they had him running a lot of deeper routes, including go routes and late-breaking plays, making him the secondary option often. And, as we discussed above, Kyler threw the ball well on those plays, but he didn’t throw them at nearly the rate that some of the pocket passing QBs did.
Using FantasyPoints Data Suite, I broke down where/when most of Marv’s targets came from. His first read percentage of 32.1% was good, right there with Trey McBride at 34.5%. And his 186 yards on scramble drills was second only in the NFL to Ja'Marr Chase’s 192. On the quick plays and scramble plays, MHJ was involved. On the other plays? Not so much.
Per FantasyPoints Data Suite, on secondary, check down, or designed plays, Marvin Harrison Jr only had 86 yards which was good for WR78. That’s despite him having a high catch rate of 83.3% on such plays. Here’s an example of a play where Marvin Harrison Jr made a great move on safety Alohi Gilman, but the pocket didn’t hold up and Kyler could not find him once he stepped up. That's a 70-yard touchdown in another life.

Both the tape and the numbers show that Marv was winning plenty of battles. PlayerProfiler, for instance, has him with the 10th most route wins of any WR on the season. And they have his 42.8% win rate vs. man to man coverage ranked as the 3rd best of any wide receiver. His target rate of 34.4% vs. man was also 5th among wide receivers.
Fantasy Points analyst Scott Barrett even pointed out during the season that his Average Separation Score (ASS) was top 5-6 on comebacks, crossing routes, and post routes. He struggled to gain separation on go routes while Kyler wasn’t holding on long enough to find him on the intermediate to deep reads, however. And those were the routes they continued to have him run.
Marvin Harrison Jr’s Room For Improvement
Marvin Harrison Jr is not without criticism of his own. There were a couple of instances both in the statistics and on the tape that demonstrated spots where he could help out Murray. One was finding softer spots in the zone and making it easier for Murray to fit the ball in there.
A lot of these routes aren’t timing routes where you have to be on a specific spot and the ball will be there. You are feeling out the defense. Marv did have some good plays in these situations but he also had some like this one where he could have found more open space for Murray to find him in. Harrison is seen here sitting at the 20 yard line center screen and, if he simply drifts just a little more into that big open pocket there, that is an easier throw for Kyler. Instead, Kyler takes one look then dumps it down.

One other aspect where he could improve is making “good contact” vs. “bad contact” at the top of his routes. Getting close to the defender is a good way to create separation but it doesn’t help if you don’t actually create any space.
Harrison Jr’s default, especially early in the season, seemed to be to make contact every time vs. mixing it up with a move or hesitation. There were a few examples in this Bills game alone - in this one he also loses his footing.

Fantasy Football Dynasty Outlook: Marvin Harrison Jr
It might not be easy given his pedigree and where he was likely drafted in your leagues. But this is the exact kind of player that I look to buy in dynasty, even if I’m not getting any sort of discount. The price is likely still a first-round pick and more, possibly, and that is fine with me.
After digging into the data and watching 500+ routes, I’m as confident in the talent and the ability of the player as ever as a 22-year-old. In his first season he was thrown into a difficult role, yet he still routinely won his own battles, even if the ball didn’t always come his way.
As for the Kyler Murray “problem”, there are a lot of ways these things can go. Obviously in dynasty there is always the chance that he goes the AJ Brown route and shoots his way out of town. Hopefully, in their own offseason review, Drew Petzing and the Cardinals realize that not every play should be a quick hitter or a scramble.
Building confidence in both MHJ and Petzing’s scheme should allow Murray to understand when to hold on for the late-breaking routes. Or maybe just throw the ball up when he sees single coverage with no safety help and let his guy make things happen.
