Brooklyn Nets vs. Chicago Bulls
O/U: 234
Spread: CHI -1.5
Injuries:
Brooklyn
James Harden QUEST
Kyrie Irving QUEST
Nic Claxton QUEST
Joe Harris OUT
Chicago
Alex Caruso OUT
Tyler Cook OUT
Javonte Green OUT
Patrick Williams OUT
MVP/CPT
Kevin Durant, SF/PF – Tough calls ahead tonight as both Kyrie Irving and James Harden are listed as Questionable at the time of writing. But one thing’s for sure. If one or both of them miss this game, Durant is a stone lock somewhere in your lineups. With Hardend and Irving off the floor, Durant’s already elite usage goes up by 4.4% and his DK points skyrocket by almost nine points per game. Durant has been above 48 fantasy points in nine of the past 10 games and the Bulls allow the fourth-most fantasy points to power forwards this season.
DeMar DeRozan, PF – DeRozan is the Bull of the Big Three that has the lowest salary tonight, which means I am just fine rolling the dice here considering the game environment. Both of these teams are top-12 in pace, the game has the highest implied total on the slate (234), and also carries the lowest spread of the night (CHI -1.5). DeRozan has cooled off slightly since he went scorched earth on the league a couple weeks ago, but he still has at least 36 DK points in nine of his past 10 games and comes at a discount compared to LaVine and Vucevic.
Kyrie Irving, PG/SG – So much for Irving being eased back into game action after missing three months of the season. In his first two games back he has played 40 minutes and 32 minutes with 41.5 and 39 DK points. Over the last two weeks, the Bulls have allowed 21 points, 7.7 rebounds and 10.3 assists to point guards with the rebounds and assists being bottom-five numbers for both. If Irving were to play in this one and Harden sits, we can go back to last season to see that Irving’s usage rate and assist rate were both an amazing 31%. Expect more of the same if Harden misses tonight.
UTIL
Lonzo Ball, PG – Ball has been a sneaky DFS play all season, and at a salary level of $2,000+ than all of the other stars on this Showdown Slate, he represents tremendous upside for the price. Ball is working on a streak of at least 30 fantasy points in eight of 10 games, and he doesn’t have less than five assists, five rebounds and two steals in a game since a week before Christmas. With the Nets allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to point guards this year, Ball looks like an excellent play tonight.
Nikola Vucevic, C – For the salary I actually like Ball a little more this evening, but there is no denying Vuc’s upside, especially since Nic Claxton is also Questionable for the Nets and his absence would leave them very thin and undersized if he missed. On the season, the Nets allow 51 fantasy points per game to centers, but in the last seven games as they have been hit with injuries, that number jumps up to 58 per game. Brooklyn is also 26th in defensive rating and 27th in defensive rebound rate in that span as well, so this could be a game where Vucevic feasts.
Zach LaVine, SG/SF – As you can tell by now, this game is very top-heavy with all of the stars available. Can you fit them all? Certainly not, but each one brings their own strengths and intriguing defense vs. position aspects to this matchup. With LaVine, you are paying for the floor tonight. You know exactly what you are going to get. He has been between 33 and 49 fantasy points in seven of nine games with one spike game of 52 and one floor game of 28. What’s most like is that LaVine falls right in 35-40 DK point range where he often lives. That makes sense as the Nets allow almost exactly 40 points per game to opposing shooting guards.
Value Tier
Cam Thomas, PG/SG – Cam Thomas becomes a much less desirable play if both Harden and Irving are active. But he soaks up the backup minutes when either are out and has produced well above his $4,200 salary in five of his last seven games. In his last three games – including a back to back on January 9th and 10th – Thomas averaged 28 minutes and 27 DK points per game, scoring in double digits in each one. If both stud guards miss tonight, lock him in. In those circumstances, Thomas has a 22.4% usage rate and a 16% assist rate.
Ayo Dosunmu, PG/SG – The local kid (he was born in Chicago and went to the University of Illinois) got his shot recently with Alex Caruso on the mend and he has been taking advantage of every possible opportunity. He has now played more than 20 minutes in nine of 10 games and produced double-digit fantasy points in seven of his last eight. His best efforts have come against Brooklyn where he averages 21 DK points across two games including 13 points and five rebounds per night. The minutes should continue to come tonight, which should make it easy for him to pay off a small $3,400 salary.