NBA DFS Showdown Playbook March 3: Lakers vs. Clippers

Published: Mar 03, 2022

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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Spread: Clippers -2.5

Total: 220 O/U

Injuries:

Lakers

Clippers

MVP/Captain

Where would the Lakers be without LeBron James this year? He is already single-handedly keeping this team in the postseason mix and has been simply awesome lately, scoring 49 or more DK points in five of his last six games. He also averages 47 against the Clippers this season. The Lakers went back to experimenting with LeBron at center in the last game so, if that lineup sticks, LBJ may have a significant advantage while the Clippers figure out how to stop the small-ball lineup.

Reggie Jackson is the unquestioned alpha on this team now with no Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. In his last ten games, he's averaging 36 fantasy points per game and he averages 37 against the Lakers this year – so we know that’s about his baseline tonight. However, the Lakers are the second-worst team against point guards this year and fifth in pace, so there is a decent chance Jackson goes for 40+ tonight.

Two nights ago, Russell Westbrook gave us the closest thing we have seen to a vintage performance in quite some time. Still, it was just 37.5 fantasy points in 38 minutes. He hasn’t given us 40 points in a game in more than a month, and it really comes down to his shooting. Westbrook has one game where he's shot better than 50% since January 30th. Even so, I think the salary is depressed enough tonight in this matchup that he may be worth a look. The usage is still north of 20% every night and he finally gave us a game with more than six assists on Tuesday. That hadn’t happened since February 2nd. The Clippers are bottom-ten against point guards over the last 30 games, including allowing top-six numbers in rebounds and assists. This is the game Westbrook gives us a course correction.

Utility

If the Lakers play LeBron at center again, Marcus Morris will spend most of the game as the tallest player on the floor for the Clippers. When these teams played on February 25th, Ivica Zubac played only 18 minutes and Morris ended up with almost 30. Morris averages over 30 DK points per game against the Lakers this year.

Terance Mann and Jackson have been the most consistent offensive producers for the Clippers over the last four games against the Rockets and Lakers’ putrid defenses. Mann averages 33.8 fantasy points per game in that span, shooting 24-for-46 in the process. He has stepped it up in the rebounding department too, giving us more than eight per game in that four-game streak. On the season, the Lakers allow the third-most rebounds to the shooting guard spot.

It is becoming increasingly more difficult to find Lakers players who can fill out a showdown roster like this one. It’s become purely the LeBron show in the last few games. Carmelo Anthony at least averages 30 DK points per game in the last ten days and hasn’t scored below 20 fantasy points since January 27th. You pay the $7,000 for the safe 20-point floor and hope for a game where the shots are falling and he gets you close to 40. His last game against the Clippers, where he put up 33 DK points, gives us some hope.

Value Tier

We know the story with Robert Covington. He is going to give you a decent number of threes, rebounds, steals, and blocks when he is on the court. Playing time concerns were what worried us when he was traded to Los Angeles, but he is getting on the court for at least 20 minutes every night and now has a streak of five out of six games with at least 20 fantasy points. Over the last seven games, the Lakers are the second-worst team against power forwards – so feel free to fire up Covington for just $4,800.

If LeBron does start at center again, that likely brings Stanley Johnson back into the mix again. He started at the power forward spot on Tuesday and played 22 minutes, scoring 16.5 fantasy points. He hadn’t reached numbers like that since February 9th when he was last starting. For just $3,200, this is likely the best bet for a Lakers’ value play to 7x his salary tonight.