Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Spread: DAL -5.0

Total: 216.5

 

Injuries:

Dallas

Los Angeles

 

MVP/Captain

 

 

I’ll get the spoilers out of the way now. You are not going to see Russell Westbrook anywhere near this list today. He would literally be my seventh or eighth option in the MVP spot tonight if I was forced to choose. He isn’t rebounding, dishing out assists, and has made more than 50% of his field goals once in his last nine games. What this means for LeBron James is that he has to do even MORE than he already was with Anthony Davis on the shelf. That’s why we are getting 49 or more fantasy points in six of the last eight games and 38 minutes played per game in his last five. You know you’re getting 50 points tonight. 

 

 

 

Luka Doncic is only $1,200 more than LeBron in this spot and is routinely putting up 60-70 DK points, so he is likely my choice tonight – especially considering the state of the Lakers’ defense. On the season, only the Rockets allow more fantasy points to point guards as Los Angeles gives up the most points, the second-most rebounds, and the fourth-most assists. On the road and with just a five-point spread, this should be a competitive one. All Doncic does on the road is average 25 points, 10 rebounds, nine assists, and 1.2 steals per game. 

 

 

 

Spencer Dinwiddie certainly passed the first couple auditions with the Mavericks, averaging 33.5 DK points in his first two games. That came with 28.5 minutes per game and 26 shots, so he has become an instant part of this offense while finally freed from the purgatory of Washington. His MVP salary is about $10,000 less than the two mega-studs and Dinwiddie in that spot allows you to roster either James or Doncic with still $6,275 left per position. 

 

Utility

 

 

Jalen Brunson’s offense has taken a bit of a backseat to Dinwiddie the past two games, so he doesn’t make the cut for MVP. Still, he's on the court for 34-35 minutes per night and averages 10 shots, two rebounds, three assists, and a steal in those two games. The Lakers are also bottom-10 against shooting guards.

 

 

 

It is becoming increasingly more difficult to find Lakers players who can fill out a showdown roster like this one. It’s become the LeBron and Dwight Howard show the last few games. Carmelo Anthony at least averages 28.25 DK points per game in the last two and hasn’t scored below 20 fantasy points since January 27th. You pay the $5,800 for the safe 20-point floor and hope for a game where the shots are falling and he gets you close to 40. 

 

 

 

Dorian Finney-Smith gives us all the minutes on every slate and we thank him for that. But in his last three games with at least 36 minutes on the floor, he is also delivering the fantasy points. He has at least 25.75 DK points in each of those three games, mainly contributing in rebounds, assists, and steals, but also chipping in 14 points per game.  In his last game against the Lakers, he played 42 minutes and scored 24.3 fantasy points. For around $6,000 tonight, we would take that production.

 

Value Tier

 

 

Two games ago, we got a Dwight Howard performance that was vintage 2010 – 16 points, 14 rebounds, three blocks, and good percentages. That 44-point game for DFS was followed up by a 22-point game, and I think that’s more in line with what we should expect from Howard tonight. He will get about 25 minutes and be around a fantasy point-per-minute producer. The Mavericks are a middle-of-the-pack team against centers, so for the low salary we can take a shot here tonight.

 

 

 

Of the two cheap Dallas big men (Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell), I slightly prefer Kleber due to the more stable fantasy production. He was at only 15 points in his last game, but that came with just 18 minutes when he is typically in the mid- to upper-20s and has the potential for more now with no Kristaps Porzingis in town. Kleber’s one game against the Lakers gives us a road map of what to expect. About 10 points, 7-8 rebounds and 21-24 fantasy points. Not necessarily inspired numbers, but safe at this salary range.