Indiana Pacers vs. Los Angeles Lakers

  • O/U: 223.5
  • Spread: Los Angeles -5.0

 

Injuries:

Indiana

 

Los Angeles

 

MVP/CPT

LeBron James, PG/SF – No other player is in the same salary stratosphere with LeBron tonight except for Sabonis, who is still $1,900 cheaper. But LBJ is a guaranteed 50 points (51.1 in his last 10 games) and with no Myles Turner, there will be very little resistance in the lane to stop King James in this one. LeBron has one game in his last nine where his usage was less than 29% and just one game where he failed to reach at least five rebounds and five assists. Pay up with confidence. 

Domantas Sabonis, PF/C – Sabonis doesn’t get huge production boosts with Turner off the floor, partly because his usage and advanced metrics are already elite. With Turner gone, though, Sabonis’ usage is 22.5%, his rebound rate is 18% and his assist rate is 22%. He has less than 43 DK points just twice in his past 10 games and the Lakers allow the fourth-most fantasy points to centers in the past 15 games. 

Caris LeVert, PG/SG -  It’s been mostly steady production from LeVert over the last month, with just two games in that span under 40 DK points. He also has exploded for close to 60 a couple times, so that is certainly in his range of outcomes considering the Lakers are the third-worst team against shooting guards this season. No one on the Pacers sees a larger bump in usage than LeVert with Brogdon out. His rates shoot up 3% in those games. 

 

UTIL

Russell Westbrook, PG – We just can’t play Westbrook in the MVP spot until he actually starts cracking 40 DK points again on a regular basis. Westbrook is taking a back seat to Malik Monk lately and has topped 35 DK points in just one of his last seven games. Now he gets the Pacers who rank 23rd in pace and are a top-ten team against point guards in their last 15 games. I will use Westbrook sparingly here, but the counting stats he is putting up are baffling without Anthony Davis on the court. 

Chris Duarte, SG/SF – We need to see if both Brogdon and Lamb sit out tonight. If they do, fire up Duarte in this up-tempo matchup. His usage with both of those players off the floor is 23.2%, actually higher than Sabonis. In just his second game back after missing a stretch for the birth of his daughter, we got the full baby narrative game when he put up 47.75 DK points in 34 minutes against the Clippers. If we get new Brogdon and Lamb are out, fire up Duarte and hope for another 14 shots.

Malik Monk, PG/SG – Many point to Monk’s hot streak lately and just look at the volume. Yes, he is on pace to shatter the most field goals he has taken in any of his first four seasons. But he also has the highest shooting percentage of his career from the floor and from three. His effective field goal percentage is 50 points higher than any other season. And this is his lowest usage rate of his career (18%). He has just been so efficient at scoring it’s been impossible for the Lakers to give him anything less than 30 minutes per night. 

 

Value Tier

Goga Bitadze, C – Before Monday, Bitadze played 22 minutes combined in his previous four games – amassing 16 total DK points. Then, with Turner hurt, he erupted for 34 DK points in 25 minutes with 17 points, eight rebounds and a couple assists and blocks. Even if he doesn’t start (like on Monday), Goga should have plenty of minutes in tremendous pace-up game. 

Stanley Johnson, PF – In LeBron’s world, you are only as good as your most recent contributions, which should mean that Johnson gets a longer look tonight. On his third 10-day contract, Johnson exploded for 30 DK points in 25 minutes on Monday against a tough Utah team. At just $2,600 tonight, anything close to 25 minutes on the court again should allow for tremendous point-per-dollar production.