Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers

  • Spread: Utah -4.5
  • Total: 232.5

 

Injuries:

UTAH

 

LOS ANGELES

 

MVP/Captain

LeBron James, C – LeBron may now be listed as a center on DK, but it seems unlikely that’s where he starts the game today. In their last game against the Nuggets, the Lakers dusted off Dwight Howard to start and try to slow down Nikola Jokic. That went….poorly. But the Lakers are likely to try it again tonight against Rudy Gobert. That will leave James free to roam about the court, doing his otherworldly things. The Lakers have been involved in a large number of blowouts in their last 10 games, but James has never scored below 44 DK points in that span and only played less than 31 minutes once. You’re paying the $18,300 salary with the knowledge that his floor is 45 points tonight. 

Donovan Mitchell, PG/SG - With Mitchell’s salary almost $2,500 less than LeBron's tonight, it really makes you think about what’s the best option – especially considering how bad the Lakers have been against opposing backcourts this year. On the year, the Lakers are just fractions of a point better than the Thunder but are the second-worst team against shooting guards. Mitchell has scored more than 44 DK points eight times in his last 10 games, contributing in assists, rebounds, and steals as well as points.

 

Utility

Russell Westbrook, PG – The appeal of the nightly triple-double or double-double has taken a hit recently. Westbrook has only one double-double in his last six games, and averages less than 35 DK points per night in that span. But before that streak, he had four straight games with a triple-double (averaging 46 DK points) – so Westbrook has essentially turned into a boom-or-bust play this year. Over the last 15 games, the Jazz are bottom-10 against opposing point guards including allowing top-ten numbers in assists, three-pointers and blocks. It’s too risky for the MVP spot for me, but he needs to be in your UTIL plans. 

Rudy Gobert, C – The experiment of playing LeBron James at center has done wonders for the Lakers’ offense the past seven games. They have the best offensive rating in the league in that span. But it has also meant an easier path for opposing centers to have production. In that same span, the Lakers allow the third-most fantasy points per game to centers, behind only the defense-phobic Rockets and Kings. Part of that production comes from the fact that the Lakers are allowing a whopping 16.6 rebounds per game to centers. That, of course, is Gobert’s forte so he should feast tonight and Dwight Howard will also provide little resistance. 

Bojan Bogdanovic, SG/SF – For Bogdanovic, the equation is a simple one. Is he going to take more than 15 shots? In his last six games, he took 15+ shots in four of those games, averaging 38.6 DK points. In the two games where he shot less? Just 17 DK points per game. One 61-point explosion skews that, but Ingles was never below 27 fantasy points in any of the four games and he just needs 37 DK points to 5x his salary. When needing to make the choice between Bogdanovic and his 30 minutes per night at $7,400 or Mike Conley and his 28 minutes per night at $7,600, the decision is clear. 

 

Value Tier

Dwight Howard, C – All we want here for $2,800 is the 21 minutes he saw against Denver on Saturday night. He had 20 DK points in that game and he has an easy path to 10x his salary if he can stay on the court for 20+ tonight. Gobert has been playing around 35 minutes per night in his last 10 games. Even if Howard doesn’t get that kind of run 24-25 minutes should give him upside for a 10 point, 10 rebound game in this one.  

Joe Ingles, SG/SF – Except in blowouts, the Jazz are running a tight eight-man rotation when Hassan Whiteside is out. From that group, Ingles is by far the cheapest at just $3,800 in this game. The good news: he played more than 21 minutes in nine of his last 10 games. The bad news: he produced between seven and 35 DK points in that span so his range is volatile. But the Lakers are bottom-10 against both shooting guards and small forwards in their last 30 games, so Ingles is worth the cheap dart throw.