Spread: MIL -11.0
Total: 229.0
Milwaukee Bucks Injuries
George Hill OUT
Brook Lopez OUT
Portland Trail Blazers Injuries
Larry Nance QUEST
Damian Lillard OUT
Cody Zeller OUT
Keon Johnson UNAVAILABLE
Eric Bledsoe UNAVAILABLE
Justise Winslow UNAVAILABLE
MVP/Captain
Giannis Antetokuonmpo, PF/C – The all-of-a-sudden shorthanded Blazers look like no match for The Greek Freak tonight and the only resistance Giannis might see is an early benching in a game projected to be a blowout. It may sting paying a salary more than $5,000 above the next highest MVP possibility, but Giannis is at 57 DK points per game in his last 10. There is no Normal Powell or Robert Covington to slow him down tonight, so this is likely to be another Giannis smash for as long as he is in the game.
Jusuf Nurkic, C – Considering salary and matchup, I would much rather have Nurkic over C.J. McCollum or Anfernee Simons, especially if Larry Nance is still out. The Bucks are a bottom 10 team against centers over their last seven games and Nurkic has been lights out his last two games. Despite only shooting 13-for-34 combined in those two, he averages 42 DK points per night. He is rebounding every thing in sight these days so if he can combine that with a strong shooting night, the sky is the limit.
Khris Middleton, SF – Similar to Antetokuonmpo’s situation, there is no Powell, Covington, or Nassir Little to slow down Middleton tonight. If they put McCollum or Tony Snell on Middleton tonight, watch out. The Blazers were already the third worst team against small forwards this season, and are allowing 23 points, nine rebounds, and three three-pointers per game to the position.
Utility
C.J. McCollum, PG/SG – Nurkic may have the better matchup, but McCollum and Simons will be plenty busy on offense in this one, especially if the Blazers want to have any hope of keeping it close. With all of Lillard, Little, Covington and Powell off the floor, McCollum’s usage goes up 6% to over 33% per game. His assist rate is also almost 22% so he will be involved heavily in the offense. He may get the Jrue Holiday or Khris Middleton treatment tonight, but that shouldn’t impact the usage.
Anfernee Simons, PG – Similar to McCollum, Simons’ usage is upwards of 23% and his assist rate is 22% with all of the Blazers missing. That usage has led to just one game under 29 fantasy points in his last 10 contests. At more than a $2,000 discount over McCollum and Nurkic, Simons still looked undervalued on these slates.
Bobby Portis, C – The Blazers simply can’t stop opposing centers this year and Portis will be the next one to take advantage tonight. The $7,400 tag is too cheap considering Portis has gone over 31 fantasy points per game in six of his last 10 and the Blazers have allowed a whopping 62 fantasy points to centers over the last seven games.
Value Tier
CJ Elleby, SG/SF – If Elleby gets another start tonight, he is the cheap chalk of the Showdown year at just $1,000. In 27 minutes last night, Elleby scored 22.5 DK points and would be in line for the same run again, especially if Nance is still out. With Powell and Covington’s departure and Nassir Little’s injury, the Blazers are woefully thin at the wings and Elleby will need to fill that void.
Pat Connaughton, SF/PF – At just $3,000, Connaughton is underpriced for what he routinely produces in his 25 minutes per night. For the season he is over 21 DK points per night, much of it coming from his three points shooting. The Blazers allow the second-most three-point shots made to small forwards this year (3.29) and allow opponents to shoot the highest percentage in the league from beyond the arc (36.8%).