Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Spread: UTAH -4.5

Total: 226.0

 

Injuries:

Utah

Los Angeles

 

MVP/Captain

 

 

King James is doing everything he can to keep the Lakers from falling out of the playoff race, and that has meant some massive fantasy performances lately. In his last eight games, he has scored below 50 DK points just two times (44.75 and 47.25). You know are in store for 50+ fantasy points when you roster LeBron James in the captain spot – and you can get it cheaper than with players like Doncic, Giannis, or Jokic. He's questionable tonight, so monitor this closely since it’s the last game before the All-Star Break. 

 

 

 

Anthony Davis is probable tonight, so he should be good to suit up. The issue is his fantasy points have declined for four straight games and now he has to endure 24-28 minutes of the Rudy Gobert treatment. But in the end, Davis should get his production assuming he is on the court for 30+ minutes – and Gobert is still being brought back slowly from injury. 

 

 

 

Donovan Mitchell has been on fire in his five games since returning from injury. He averages 46.85 DK points in those games and has especially been shooting lights-out from three. Considering the discount you get from James and Davis, I am giving serious thought to having Mitchell as my captain tonight. The Lakers are a bottom-ten team against shooting guards this year. 

 

Utility

 

 

After missing more than three weeks with injury, the Jazz were very careful in Rudy Gobert’s first game back. He played only 22 minutes in the blowout win over the Rockets but still managed 27.25 points. I would expect a tick up to about 24-26 minutes tonight, which should mean an easy chance at 30+ fantasy points considering the Lakers’ struggles against big men. The Lakers rank 21st in overall rebound percentage and 25th in offensive rebounds. They also allow the fifth-most points in the paint this year. This adds up to a good spot for Gobert, but just understand there is likely a minutes restriction here. 

 

 

 

Insert PG playing against Russell Westbrook here. In their last 30 games, the Lakers allow the third-most fantasy points to point guards in the NBA including the second-most points and eighth-most assists. To his own credit, Mike Conley has scored over 26.5 DK points in eight of his last nine games even while playing minutes normally around the mid-20s. 

 

 

 

When do you think was the last time Russell Westbrook had a triple-double? Sometime this month? Wrong. Sometime in January? Wrong. You have to go back to late December to find a time when Westbrook put up one of his patented box score-stuffing lines. Still, the nightly threat of the double-double and triple-double bonuses have Westbrook firmly on my radar tonight. He still carries a 20% usage rate or more in every game over the last month. With Carmelo Anthony out, a few more shots and minutes may come his way. 

 

Value Tier

 

 

Speaking of Anthony being out tonight, THT seems likely to benefit most from his absence. In those situations, Talen Horton-Tucker sports an 18% usage rate and 16% assist rate. THT played 30 and 24 minutes the last two games with Anthony nicked up. He scored 35.75 and 30.25 fantasy points in those games and looks like a great candidate to put up 5x his $4,600 salary.

 

 

 

Both Eric Paschall and Danuel House should see nice minute bumps tonight with Rudy Gay out. But Paschall is likely the direct beneficiary and is line to see 16-20 minutes tonight. In the last game (a blowout against Houston) Paschall put up 19.75 points in just 15 minutes and he is very capable of putting up more than a fantasy point per minute. It looks like Trent Forrest is back to riding the pine with the Jazz almost at full strength, so I would rather toss a value dart at House or Paschall tonight.