Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns

Spread: PHX -13.5

Total: 223.5

Injuries

Los Angeles

Luke Kennard - QUEST

Paul George - OUT

Kawhi Leonard - OUT

Norman Powell - OUT

Jason Preston - OUT

Phoenix

Frank Kaminsky - OUT

Cameron Payne - OUT

Dario Saric - OUT

Landry Shamet - OUT

MVP/Captain

Chris Paul, PG – The Paul/Booker combo has been absolutely lethal for the better part of a month now. Paul has one game under DK points in the past three weeks and now has a higher salary than Devin Booker across the Showdowns. The Clippers have been spectacularly bad against point guards the last two weeks. They have allowed the most points per game, third-most rebounds, second-most three-pointers, plus eight assists per game. With the Clippers on the second night of a back-to-back, I don’t see how they will be able to contain Paul tonight. 

Devin Booker, SG – The same goes for Booker who is on his own phenomenal stretch right now. He averaged 45 fantasy points per game in his last four and that’s with him shooting above 47% only once in that span. In the past seven games the Clippers rank 27th in defensive rating, 24th in field goal percentage allowed and 28th in three-point percentage allowed. 

Terance Mann, SG/SF – In this same column yesterday, I predicted that Mann (then at $5,200) would be the best point per dollar play on the slate. That ended up being a good call as he proceeded to drop 46.25 on a tough Warriors team. Now he is at $9,300 MVP and $6,200 UTIL but that is still too cheap for the production he can bring. You are going to likely want both Paul and Booker in your lineups tonight and Mann in the MVP spot is a great way to make that happen. Mann is over 26 fantasy points in each of his last five games and averaged 13 shots per game in his last four. 

Utility

Reggie Jackson, PG – If it hasn’t been Terrance Mann taking over the offense lately, it has been Reggie Jackson, who has become the most consistent threat with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard out. Jackson averages 42 fantasy points per game in his last three and doesn’t have a usage rate under 23% for over a month. Minutes MIGHT be a concern for Jackson, who has played 77 minutes the last two games, which keeps him out of the MVP spot for me. 

Mikal Bridges, SG/SF – This game does have a rather large spread with the Suns projected to win by 13.5 points. Should that happen, we might see several of the Suns’ stars ride the pine early. But Bridges is the one starter who is least affected by blowouts. In their last game against the Magic, Phoenix won by 27 points but Bridges still played 30 minutes and had 25 DK points. Between 25 and 30 DK points is about what you expect from Bridges every night, which is just fine for $8,000

Deandre Ayton, C – The Clippers have been just as bad against centers the last two weeks as they have against point guards. They rank 29th in the league by virtue of allowing 63.81 fantasy points per game to the position in their last 15 which sets up as a nice spot for Ayton. Ayton needs this get-right spot as he only scored more than 32 fantasy points twice over the last month, but he can get upwards of 30 minutes in this one, he should smash. 

Marcus Morris, SF/PF – Morris has proven to be inconsistent since the trade deadline and the acquisition of Robert Covington. We have only seen him score 15.5, 26.75, 26, and 12 fantasy points the past week, and the minutes have fluctuated between 22 and 37. That production combined with an $8,400 price tag tells me we should tread carefully here, but Morris does have 45-point upside if this is a competitive game. 

Value Tier

Nicolas Batum, PF/C – We got Good Batum last night, which means he was up at almost 10x his salary in the Valentine’s Day Showdown. After scoring 31.5 fantasy points, Batum actually gets a salary drop to $3,400. This is a tougher matchup and the second night of a back-to-back, but it won’t take much to hit at least 5x of the salary. Batum allows you to pay up for almost anyone you want in this game but just be prepared that he could revert back to two-fantasy point Batum from February 12th without any advance warning. 

Elfrid Payton, PG – I see two things potentially working in Payton’s favor in this game tonight. First, Cameron Payne is still out with an injury, so Payton’s minutes as the backup point guard should tick up some regardless. Second, if this game does blow out, that means major minutes for Payton. In the 27-point win against Orlando on Saturday, Payton played 22 minutes and scored 33.5 fantasy points, flirting with a triple-double in that short amount of time. Payton is not without risk, but if you guess the game script right, he could be a slate-winner.