Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Spread: GSW -10.0
Total: 224.0
Injuries:
Golden State
Draymond Green - OUT
Andre Igoudala - OUT
James Wiseman - OUT
Portland
Eric Bledsoe - OUT
Damian Lillard - OUT
Jusuf Nurkic - OUT
Joe Ingles - OUT
Nassir Little - OUT
Keon Johnson - PROB
MVP/Captain
Stephen Curry, PG – Curry likely won you the All-Star Game Showdown slate if you had him in captain with the right other pieces. It just may be the same way tonight, although I wouldn’t count on another 16 three-pointers and 50 points. There is no active player in the same salary zip code as Curry tonight, and for good reason. Curry averages 46.5 DK points per night and has beaten that number four times in his last 10 games. Portland now has the 28th-ranked defensive rating this season, they allow the second-highest field goal percentage on threes this season (37.2%), and their rim protector Jusuf Nurkic is out tonight. Fire up Curry with confidence.
Anfernee Simons, PG – With so much offense already ruled out for this game, the Blazers who play the big minutes are going to be awfully busy. When you remove Lillard, Nurkic, and McCollum from the floor, Simons gets a huge boost in usage, all the way up to 34%. He also has a 28% assist rate in these situations. Before the break, Simons was on a three-game streak of ore than 45 fantasy points, so even in a tough matchup, he should have no problem piling up the stats.
Josh Hart, SG/SF - Speaking of piling up the stats, Hart has a crazy 38% usage rate in his three games with the Blazers when Nurkic is off the floor. He and Simons soak up nearly all the shots and assists (Hart also has a 38% assist rate). But where Hart will also benefit is in rebounds where he has a 13% rate since joining the team. Hart played at least 36 minutes in all three games and has scored 27, 50, and 41 DK points for his new team.
Utility
Klay Thompson, SG – The numbers we care about most with Thompson are: 31, 27, 30, 30. Those are his minutes the last four games as he creeps back up to his playing time before the two injuries. Thompson scored less than 30 fantasy points just once in the last six games and the $8,200 salary checks in lower than both Simons and Hart. As mentioned above, the Blazers are horrendous at guarding the three-point line and they allow 13.7 made threes per game. We may see double that number tonight.
Justise Winslow, PG/SF – While Hart and Simons handle all the scoring, look for Winslow to continue his streak of doing just about everything else. Since being inserted into the starting lineup after his trade, Winslow averages 33.95 fantasy points, 13.2 actual points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and two steals per night. He was on the floor for at least 32 minutes in each of those games and Portland will certainly need someone with his kind of defensive chops tonight.
Andrew Wiggins, SF – Wiggins has unsurprisingly seen his production decrease with both Curry and Thompson on the floor. He has scored above 30 DK points once in February, but that leads to a salary drop that we might be able to take advantage of tonight. The Blazers are simply abysmal against small forwards this season. They allow the most fantasy points per game to the position (44.4) including the second-most actual points and the most three-pointers. Wiggins will get the minutes tonight (he is at 32 per game his last 10), so he just needs to take advantage of the elite matchup.
Value Tier
Trendon Watford, C – The value plays on this Showdown Slate might be very chalky tonight as we have two guys under $3,500 who will be in the starting lineup and likely to play big minutes in this one. Watford is likely to get the starting nod for Nurkic tonight and when that has been the case, he has been very involved in the offense. His rates with Jurkic out are a 15.3% usage rate, 13.9% assist rate, and 13.8% rebound rate. When he got more than 20 minutes on Valentine’s day, he put up 30.5 DK points. A 10x of his salary is a real possibility tonight.
Gary Payton II, PG/SG – Coach Steve Kerr apparently really likes the small-ball lineup of Curry-Payton-Thompson-Wiggins-Looney while Draymond Green is out. He declared Payton would stick in the starting unit through tonight, giving us a great opportunity at just $3,200. When he got the nod in the game before the break, he did not disappoint, putting up 30.5 DK points in just 25 minutes.