Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers

Spread: LAL -3.5

Total: 222.5

 

Injuries:

Portland

Los Angeles

 

MVP/Captain

Anthony Davis, C – We are going to likely be without King James again tonight, which means his 31% usage and 21 shots, 7.7 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game are up for grabs. With James off the floor, Davis’ usage pops from 27.7% to 30% and he checks in with a 15% rebound rate. Davis averages around 49 DK points per game when James does not suit up, so he is a clear candidate for MVP tonight. 

Russell Westbrook, PG – Westbrook is the other likely candidate to smash with LeBron out tonight. His usage increases by 3.7% and his fantasy points per game climb by 4.8. Westbrook’s usage + assist rate equals 70.3% when James is out so we can count on Westbrook being involved in almost three-fourths of LA’s offense. He has back-to-back games over 48 fantasy points with James out.

CJ McCollum, PG/SG – McCollum is really finding his groove after missing so much time with injury and paternity leave. He is over 35 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. But more importantly, he is back to playing 37-39 minutes every night which is huge for DFS. McCollum’s usage is over 29% with Lillard out and if Simons is hobbled or limited by his hip injury tonight, the usage should fly past that number. 

 

Utility

Jusuf Nurkic, C – The experiment of playing LeBron James at center led to a few wins for the Lakers, but it did nothing to slow down opposing big men from a fantasy perspective. The Lakers allow the fourth-most fantasy points to centers over the last 15 games. Add that to Nurkic’s 25.4% usage rate, 19% rebound rate and 18% assist rate when Lillard is out and this could be a really big game for him. 

Anfernee Simons, PG – Simons improved to Probable in the latest injury report from Portland, but he did miss a game with his hip contusion so it is something to monitor. Assuming he is a full go, we have to fire him up against the Lakers, who trail only the Rockets in fantasy points to the point guard position. Simons did not look like himself in the last game – likely due to the injury – but he was putting up at least 30 fantasy points in 13 of 14 games before Monday’s disaster. With the Lakers representing a huge pace bump for the Blazers, I am taking a lot of shots here assuming Simons is playing.

Malik Monk, PG/SG – As you might expect, Monk gets a big bump in shots when LeBron does not play. His usage is 20% in those situations and that is with sharing the floor with Davis and Westbrook. Monk is coming off an absolutely monstrous performance on Sunday – 57.5 DK points – so we did get a salary bump. But if he gives us around 34-35 minutes like in his last two games, he can more than pay off a $6,400 tag. 

 

Value Tier

Stanley Johnson, PF – Johnson likely gets another start at power forward tonight with Davis shifting to center. That has meant more than 25 minutes per game over the last five contests and he has at least double-digit fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. He played close to a season-high with 29 minutes in his last game and that’s exactly what we are looking for again against a team allowing top-10 fantasy output to power forwards in their last seven games. 

Dennis Smith, Jr., PG – Simons is likely playing and will start at point guard, but Smith should still get plenty of run based on the past few games. With Simons struggling last game, Smith got 18 minutes on the floor. If we get that kind of court time against this Lakers defense, Smith looks like a steal at just $1,600. If Simons should sit for some reason, he becomes the uber-chalk and a lock in the MVP spot. But assuming normal rotations, we should be able to pencil in Smith for 15 minutes and 15 fantasy points.